The One With the Pivot
The prospect of a Donald Trump presidency has predictably enough, created a climate of uncertainty in the Asia Pacific region. Pranay Kotasthane in his post on Asian realignment sketches an idea of how countries in East Asia might recalibrate in the coming years. Already, countries like Australia, Philippines and Japan have started realigning themselves post US election, and reassessing their position in the face of US indifference and overweighted Chinese influence in Asia. Trump’s rallying cry for an America first policy, alongside what Robert Kagan calls a US withdrawal from the ‘reassurance business” will pose a bigger dilemma for smaller, emerging democracies like Myanmar.
The initial years of the Obama administration, with Clinton as secretary of state focussed on pivoting US towards Asia, and in creating stronger relationships with smaller nations in an effort to counter balance China’s influence in the region. The US had just prior to the election lifted a 20 year old sanction on Myanmar. There had been hints of more support to bolster state institutions in Myanmar, and help with trade and development in the country. There have also been rumours that the Asia pivot had come at a time when Myanmar was looking at North Korea as an ally for modernizing its military and as a supplier of nuclear technology.
The NLD’s rise to power at this juncture, was with full fledged support from the US government, both for the party and for the democratic movement in Myanmar. Clinton and Obama’s visit to Myanmar, and with Suu Kyi were seen favorably & greatly improved Myanmar’s image in the west. The 2015 election was predicated on the belief that Suu Kyi’s vision for a democratic Myanmar and her ability to engage with the world at large would bring economic development and better relations with countries other than China. Suu Kyi since her elevation to state councillor position post elections, has been meeting with world leaders trying to encourage investment in the country. Her meetings have resulted in multiple treaties, and promises of investments in various sectors, and in critical infrastructure in Myanmar.
A Clinton presidency might have extended this relationship.
President elect Trump’s Asia policy, on the other hand has focussed almost exclusively on the nature of trade relations with China, and stepping away from Japan, South Korea militarily. He has also more importantly sparked worries that he might disengage to a greater degree from Asia.
While a limited US role in the region doesn’t necessarily translate into disaster for Myanmar, it does limit the options that the country has in its grand scheme to pivot west.
For starters, Myanmar will continue to look towards India, Japan, and Singapore to ensure a balance in investments within the country. Japan and India have been looking at making joint investments in Myanmar which could significantly boost their impact in the region. India has also tried to push forward with its act east policy, independently, and via groups like BIMSTEC. Myanmar has in the past year has also stepped up to engage more with regional actors and groups. Closer relations with more smaller countries means better connectivity in the region and perhaps strategic alliances that could help.
Secondly, Myanmar has to because of its position in the region look to China to assist in keeping peace on its borders. The increasing civil war along Myanmar’s borders means ethnic tensions spilling across the border to China, and also more refugees flooding into China. China will have a bigger stake in trying to keep peace in the region. It will also want to safe guard its interests in the region, and as the biggest investor in the country, it will ensure that internal conflicts don’t continue to impact its regional growth and connectivity.
The US through soft, and hard power projections ensured some semblance of security and balance for countries in the SE Asian region. A strong, developing relationship with the US could have perhaps given greater legitimacy and support to the NLD in trying to solve ethnic conflicts and chart peace agreements. However, the possibility of a policy shift makes it far more difficult for countries like Myanmar to depend on the US as a reliable ally, even as they make their transition from a dictatorship to a democratic country in a strategic region.
This uncertainty in the region is bound to last for some time. As critical as it is to see how larger countries realign themselves, it will now be equally important to keep an eye on how smaller countries pivot in the coming months.
