COVID-19: Political implications in East Africa

by Tom Warneke
First published 19th April 2020
Africa | Understanding Your World | Fostering Growth & Opportunity

We’ve seen elections delayed and transitions crippled across the continent as well as stress testing leaderships amid their response to the coronavirus pandemic.

Taking a closer look at East Africa, we explore what COVID-19 means politically for Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Kenya & Tanzania and where things might go next.

Ethiopia

Elections have been delayed in Ethiopia — initially scheduled for August 29.

The pandemic serves as a somewhat excellent distraction to delay the election process. We should say this is perfectly suitable and expected — it would, after all, be irresponsible and dangerous to try and hold elections in the current time. However, because of the delay, there’s also unprecedented constitutional issues whereby the government will exceed their 5-Year term limit.

The election itself is likely to be highly competitive. The delay itself gives all camps more time to prepare their runs but also allows the electoral commission to get their processes in place as well.

Kenya

The Kenyan government is making serious attempts to stop the spread of COVID-19 including lockdowns and mask requirements. A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a ‘last resort’. The lower socio-economic classes who live in the slums simply couldn’t afford such a lockdown and would likely trigger significant civil unrest.

The healthcare system itself is somewhat inadequate to serve the population numbers Kenya has.

Tourism generates over $1B annually for Kenya and is likely to be significantly hit due to global travel and tourism bans.

Sudan

The Sudanese political transition, already fragile, is under real stress. Economically, Sudan is facing a tough time. The power dynamics within the transitional government clearly being tested as the country attempts to combat the pandemic.

The additional pressure of coronavirus also weighs heavy on the transitional government as they push to show that they can adequately deal with the pandemic both medically but also geopolitically, economically and on a societal level.

Food prices have tripled and people are concerned about the ability to feed their families. According to the International Crisis Group, in Atbara (north of Khartoum), a protest was recently held by the tea sellers because of the stay at home order and a lack of government fiscal support.

South Sudan

South Sudan poses a significant humanitarian concern. A country largely without a healthcare system, the majority of healthcare comes from International NGOs.

Many South Sudanese are living in IDP camps and close quarters making social distancing challenging.

Likely government response will involve a very heavy handed, securitised response. If people decided to flee and cross borders, there may likely be issues if borders are closed due to controlling the virus.

Somalia

Somalia too has elections scheduled this year with the culmination meant to happen early 2021.

The other key issue is the separation of powers and influence between Mogadishu and the Federal Member states and how they cooperate and strengthen and how they coordinate — particularly in the time of a pandemic.

Opportunity does present itself for improved and greater coordination but also provides a platform for those sections that want to stand out (perhaps via different initiatives and interventions) allowing those states to distinguish themselves from the pack.

Should the virus be spread into al-Shabbab territory, the result is likely to be dire. We’ve seen in previous incidents such as the 2011 famine where they’ve refused aid, that refusal costs lives that ultimately degrades their support in the territory. Currently al-Shabbab seem to blame foreign actors for the spread of COVID-19 which they might use to leverage the removal of foreign forces however they’ve been largely silent on the issue thus far.

Tanzania

The Tanzanian government initially adopted a fairly lax approach despite their lack of healthcare resources. However, since numbers are rising the government has since closed schools and banned social gatherings.

No curfew or lockdown exists at this time. This is likely economically driven.

Tensions are high at present as President Magufuli’s government may unwittingly fuel unrest should they attempt to limit speech or press in the country.

Many of our clients globally are already engaging with us as they determine how to monitor the situation whilst continuing their operations and keep their teams and operations safe.

We’ve setup a hub on our website to help our clients track the situation as well as access the latest in analysis as well as advice from the World Health Organisation — find us at www.complexglobal.co/covid-19

We’re helping our clients through monitoring and analysis of the situation via inCountry as well as our local, regional & global analysts and experts as well as our crisis response and emergency management provisions — ensuring our clients are assisted in their time of need.

If you have concerns about your current operations and the risks to your team or your business or if you feel you need a more developed understanding in the current situation and what might help you be better prepared, our team is able to assist. We have an expansive team in most regions with access to the latest information and analysis as well as scenario planning and support. To find out how we can support you, our team can be reached at coronavirus@complexglobal.co