COVID19: United States and a phased plan for re-opening

by Tom Warneke
First published 22nd April 2020
Americas | Understanding Your World | Fostering Growth & Opportunity

April 16 saw the U.S. government unveil their approach for states to begin lifting lockdown restrictions and in term, restarting the U.S. economy.

The White House plan doesn’t include set deadlines and is highly malleable. It’s ultimately a set of guidelines for the governors and mayors have a framework to operate from whilst still deciding on their own lockdown strategies.

The guideline echoes ideas being suggested by governors from the West Coast, Midwestern & East Coast states — potentially allowing for a coordinated and consistent approach nationwide.

For lifting the restrictions, the plan has three phases.

Phase One

Cities should have mass testing, contract tracing and confident, strong health care systems in place

This primary phase would allow some non essential businesses to reopen including the likes of cinemas, sporting venues and gyms. A condition of their reopening would be strict social distancing, a reduction in capacity and health/temperature checks at all locations.

The United States however still doesn’t have a nationwide testing regime so being able to activate Phase One may still be unattainable for many states.

Assuming two weeks of documented decline in COVID-19 cases, cities and territories can move to phase two.

Phase Two

Phase Two would see schools reopen. In addition, non essential businesses could start to bring employees back into offices.

Vulnerable and at-risk segments of the population including those who are immunocompromised would still be locked down at home.

Phase Three

Phase three is the final phase of recovery — no restrictions.

It’s important to note at this point however that if spikes in cases are documented, it could regress to Phase Two or One as required.

Other considerations

Businesses will need to adapt to the new age of social distancing. Employees will need to physically distance and many businesses will need to add temperature and health checks to their entrances.

Unemployment levels are likely to remain high which may require further stimulus from Washington. Having already passed $2.2 trillion in relief, more funds may be needed.

The Federal reserve will continue rolling liquidity into the market and buying bonds to mitigate pressure on communities. Governments may involve themselves into the housing market in order to guarantee rents and protect all sides be they renters, landlords or owners that even under the threat of unemployment will still maintain roofs over their heads.

Many of our clients globally are already engaging with us as they determine how to monitor the situation whilst continuing their operations and keep their teams and operations safe.

We’ve setup a hub on our website to help our clients track the situation as well as access the latest in analysis as well as advice from the World Health Organisation — find us at www.complexglobal.co/covid-19

We’re helping our clients through monitoring and analysis of the situation via inCountry as well as our local, regional & global analysts and experts as well as our crisis response and emergency management provisions — ensuring our clients are assisted in their time of need.

If you have concerns about your current operations and the risks to your team or your business or if you feel you need a more developed understanding in the current situation and what might help you be better prepared, our team is able to assist. We have an expansive team in most regions with access to the latest information and analysis as well as scenario planning and support. To find out how we can support you, our team can be reached at coronavirus@complexglobal.co