Forecast2020 in Brief: Brexit & UK Leadership
First published 14th January 2020 as part of Forecast2020
by Tom Warneke
Europe | Fostering Growth & Opportunity| Understanding Your World
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decisive victory in the December UK election has made one thing almost certain, Brexit will be happening. The election has resulted in the strongest Conservative majority since 1987 and dispelled the hopes of Remainers to prevent Brexit from happening altogether. Johnson has seized upon this victory as a mandate to ‘get Brexit done’. However, that is where the certainties end. The exact form that the UK’s withdrawal form the European Union will take is hard to predict and the consequences of such a withdrawal, even more so.
After January 31st, the UK won’t be an EU member. This is just the beginning of the changes to be seen in 2020 as the United Kingdom seeks to define itself on it’s own two feet. It’s possible the UK could seek to retain close ties with the EU (it’s current largest trading partner) or it’s possible that it could seek out alliances throughout the commonwealth such as Canada or Australia or indeed anywhere around the world.
If we return our attention to the immediate situation, the British pound sterling is likely to fluctuate in response to the ongoing trials and tribulations of Brexit. Generally, one can expect devaluations of the pound relative to other currencies in the not so distinct future. However, if the PM is able to achieve a relatively quick Brexit, this may have a stabilising affect. Although financial forecasters have rarely made a positive case for Brexit, uncertainty can often be a greater disaster for the markets than disaster itself.
We’re watching the Brexit affairs as well as those of the UK Parliament closely at ComplexGlobal to keep abreast of regional analysis and what this means for our clients in the region. For more insight and analysis on this event as well as a global understanding of the issues that affect you, explore our wide range of analysis, intelligence and commentary at www.complexglobal.co
