Forecast2020 in Brief: US Politics and the road ahead
First published 13th January 2020 as part of Forecast2020
by Tom Warneke
Americas | Fostering Growth & Opportunity | Understanding Your World
The current state of the U.S politics can be described as divided to say the least, confrontational and mistrustful. On that note, it is important to emphasise that it is not just President Trump vs. the Democrats but largely, the battle is mostly based on ideological differences between the Trump-led Republican block and the Democratic Party led Liberal society. There are plenty of examples that confirm this contention. Starting from the longest government shutdown in history to the current impeachment proceedings.
The Presidential Elections will have a significant impact on the domestic and geopolitical situation. It is the crucial moment which will define the direction of US politics in the new decade. However, with two totally different concepts, the prospect of political conflicts seems inevitable. As far the Republicans and Trump are concerned, they’ll continue with an ‘America First’ doctrine, opting for Domestic policy over foreign. As such, their resources will be curtailed and Trump will continue to define foreign policy with little input from the experts around him.
As the elections heat up, parties will begin to back their candidates along party lines — Congress will support Trump and be loose at the reigns with the White House.
Despite Trump’s unwillingness to prioritise foreign policy, there’s a number of global issues on the table that will likely have an impact on the elections. For one, the US-China trade war rolls on (see our seperate analysis on the US China trade war for further details) as well as the US-North Korea relationship.
Trump needs to be careful to navigate this path between acceptance of North Korea as a de-facto Nuclear state and denuclearisation insistence. Finding the right temper here is key.
US foreign policy also has Middle Eastern implications in regards not only to the United States’ relationship with Tehran but also their backing and support of the Saudi Arabian government. Israel will continue to benefit from the US’ pro Jerusalem beliefs however this is likely to be complicated with regards to Iran.
Like so many of the risks and events we’re analysing, it’s challenging to offer concrete recommendations and a path forward. All the more so with the unpredictability that President Trump brings to the White House. Ultimately, it’s clear that Republicans and Democrats are polar opposites on just about all their policy platforms — making for a dynamic and exciting 2020 for both domestic and international interests. One thing we know more sure is that we’re sure to see many a heated display and a screaming match or two on rolling cable TV news. The big unknown really remains to be the question of impeachment and whether that will bolster Trump’s ‘witch-hunt’ rhetoric or if it’ll destroy his shot at re-election. Make a prediction? We couldn’t…
We’re following the election trail to November 3rd at ComplexGlobal to keep abreast of local analysis and what this means for our clients, their businesses and their operations. For more insight and analysis on this as well as a global understanding of the issues that affect you, explore our wide range of analysis, intelligence and commentary at www.complexglobal.co
