Forecast2020: Our take on the year ahead
First published 13th January 2020 as part of Forecast2020
by Tom Warneke
Welcome to Forecast2020, our annual forecast of the key events, affairs and risks shaping the year ahead for business, government and projects globally.
As I reflect back on how we’ve made our way through 2019, one of the most striking facts is that so many of the issues we’ve analysed as part of Forecast2020 are the same as Forecast2019. Issues and risks such as the US Government, Brexit and Climate Change all rank highly again this year as does the conflict in Yemen and a focus on politics in Africa.
This year, we’ve decided to expand our coverage and draw on many of our global analysts. From Hong Kong to Venezuela, Pakistan to London, Sydney to Dubai, you’ll hear from our global team on twelve issues that we believe key to how 2020 will unfold and affect you, your business and things you’re working on in the coming twelve months.
Perhaps of biggest note in 2019 and into 2020 is how geopolitics is impacting global economies and global trade. Whether we look at the traditional haven economies of the US, Japan, the Euro or we look at risk orientated markets like Australia and New Zealand, geopolitical events will drive global change. In the coming year, we’re going to see some major political events such as the 2020 US Presidential election as well as the development of US-China Trade policy that will prove major actors not to mention the realisation of Brexit and what that will be. We’re also going into a big year for African Elections right across the continent.
Global political trends are now more than ever, key drivers for international business. 2020 is set to drive business forward in many markets against a backdrop of rising populism, sanctions and civil unrest & disruption. Agility and responsiveness will be key in 2020 for business as they navigate these issues in the course of their day to day.
Looking into 2020, a majority of the issues we’re covering are linked either economically or geopolitically. Particularly when we look at issues of US politics and the Presidential Election as well as the progression of Brexit, looking to foreign affairs is key in understanding future direction. While President Trump has had minimal ‘runs on the board’ when it comes to foreign policy so he’ll want to ensure he keeps friendly with his global compatriots. Whether it’s looking at the US relationship with China and their development of phase two of the trade deal of the US confrontation with Iran, cooler heads will need to prevail in order to advance any geopolitical cause. We know that the US has a significantly reduced international view compared to administrations past so 2020 will prove interesting to see whether Trump uses his power of sanctions and direct power (typically economic or military) and what results this might produce. If the US decide to alter or increase sanctions on a number of nation states in 2020, compliance for business will be far from optional.
Perhaps most currently on everyone’s mind is the conflict between the US and Iran. Indeed, as we started discussing and brainstorming Forecast2020 in December, the situation was very different. As we all know, particularly around geopolitical affairs and conflict in the Middle East, situations change quickly. We decided to keep our original analysis on the situation but expect the developments surrounding Iran, Iraq and the wider Middle East to be a topic of particular concern to our clients throughout 2020.
2019 was also a year for civil unrest and dissent globally. Hong Kong, Lebanon, Chile and many others all saw populations take to the streets to get their voices heard and affect change in their governments or their living conditions. Growing inequality, pervasive corruption, a lack of social mobility as well as a rising tide of populism all fuelled this discontent. The effects of this simply aren’t limited to what is seen in the news but has a direct impact on business and trade. Those same people taking to the streets are the same people in your office, your boardroom or on site. It’s therefore key that business pays attention to this discontent and activism and understands the potential role they could play. People will not be quick to forgive a business that refuses to take a stand on something they’re so passionate about, even less should they default to government quid pro-quo. The effects of the protests aren’t just policy and ideology but also operational and practical ones. It’s therefore key that business look at their operational planning to ensure they can continue to operate and function in the day to day, particularly in a safe and effective way. We’ve explored in particular some of the larger examples of unrest namely Hong Kong and their protests that continue more than 8 months on as well as the increasing protests taking place across Latin America.
We also chose to pay particular attention this year to various events taking place across the African continent. Whether it be looking at the Future of Sudan following the overthrow of al-Bashir earlier in 2019 or the growing insecurity in the Sahel Region, these events coupled with the ongoing Yemen conflict and the large amount of elections taking place across 2020 see Africa as a place of major change throughout the coming year. Typically these events present a time of growth and opportunity for business when managed effectively. Operational security and paying attention to reputational risk will be key when looking to do business and work in Africa when opportunities present themselves.
Lastly, we chose to prioritise Climate Change and the Climate Emergency we’re seeing globally as a key affair for 2020. While emissions and climate targets have been hot topics throughout 2019 including the often disappointing commitments seen at CoP25, climate change has also been a topic of global activism. Fuelled by the likes of Extinction Rebellion and Greta Thunberg, climate change is firmly on the public consciousness. As we go to press, we’re seeing the devastating effects playing out in Australia as they face their bushfire crisis.
You could easily think that when looking at this cacophony of risks and issues that the world isn’t in a great place. You would be mistaken. Despite the doom and gloom, growth and prosperity remain possible for our clients in the year ahead. Ultimately, what we’re seeing is the vocalisation and action of issues that have long been bubbling away in the background — we’re seeing people, governments and business taking action on many of these affairs.
Trade deals, sanctions, regime change, environmental risk and security concerns may all hamper international operations but when handled strategically and thoughtfully, it’s also a great time for the world and the progress we can all make. With innovation and prosperity as well as a more enlightened global populous, it’s clear that people and business are responding to these affairs much faster than governments and therefore it’s in your hands the meet the challenges of the coming year.
We hope you find Forecast2020 insightful and useful as you make your plans for the coming year. Forecast2020 is just the beginning for us and you’ll see some podcasting released in the coming weeks with our analysts as well as our partners and industry experts and leading commentators dissecting these issues in more detail. We’re also excited to launch our intelligence platform inCountry in the coming weeks where you can explore all our analysis as well as our country and security database including over 230 nations around the world. If you’d like to hear more about these initiatives or just keep up to date with us at ComplexGlobal, why not sign-up to our mailing lists and always be the first to know.
At ComplexGlobal, we’re looking forward to the year ahead and seeing how these events play out. Partnerships and support will be key in the year ahead for navigating these issues and emerging out of 2020 successful. As always, ComplexGlobal will be partnering with our clients to support them outside their comfort zones, in new places around the world. We’ll be there to support their projects and help them understand the world around them whilst helping navigate risk, mitigate crisis and ultimately, thrive with every opportunity.
Tom Warneke
CEO & Managing Director
ComplexGlobal
