Rising Tensions for Iran
First published 10th December 2019
by Osama Zahid
Middle East| Understanding Your World | Operating in Foreign Environments| Resolving Incidents & Crisis
Iran is a country which is enriched with natural resources. It holds a key geographical position from a trading perspective which, if utilized in its true sense, can prove to be fruitful for the country’s overall progression. In recent times however, Iran exists in complete isolation from the rest of the world. Despite being termed as one of the most favourable countries in terms of economical growth in 2015, Iran has suffered from international trade sanctions as well as resentment from its allies. This leads us to ask: What policies really led to Iran’s decline and how can these policies further escalate tensions between Iran and the international community in 2020?
The Background
Iran’s foreign relations hit rock bottom in 2019 after US president, Donald Trump, publicly imposed harsh economic sanctions on both the country and the Ayatollah. President Trump justified these sanctions claiming Iran was refusing to abandon its nuclear program which had the potential to jeopardise global peace — this considering President Hassan Rouhani had verbally threatened the United States and Israel quite frequently in the past has set hostilities quite high.
Iran could find allies in Arab world comprising Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait and Iraq. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and United Arab Emirates united against Iran, with support from the United States. Iran however has lost support from its neighbouring allies including Syria.
Often described as the strongest ally of Iran, the Syrian government used to hold strong economic ties with Iran until the country fell under the influence of ISIS. Ever since, Syria has been able to provide little to no support, considering the lack of resource extolled by the Syrian government themselves.
Saudi Arabian — Iran Relations
Saudi Arabia & Iran often verbally clash with one another as part of their fierce struggle to become the dominant force within the region. Both countries are home to a large number of Muslims. Saudi Arabia, because of its historical religious significance, is often seen as the leader of the Muslim community, particularly by those Muslims who belong to the Sunni sect. Iran, on the other end, is home to individuals that belong to the alternative branch of Islam, known as the Shia sect. The animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia can primarily be seen as a consequence of theocratical differences that have long been occurring for centuries. These differences have shifted towards a more political perspective where the two countries seek to attain power that is fuelled by religious sentiments.
The relationship is further strained by the Yemen conflict where Saudi Arabia seeks to support the recognised Yemen government while Iran seeks to support the Houthi Rebels. Over the past five years, this conflicts has devolved into what the United Nations has termed “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” — not only a crisis for Yemen but a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Iran’s Controversial Actions in 2019
2019 has seen a year of controversy for Iran. President Rouhani’s infamous statements and actions have caused tensions to rise at an alarming rate. There have been discussions about violence, restrictions, and even threats of war. The following is a breakdown of the provocative actions taken by the Iranian government that has prompted fears of a military clash:
- Iran Shoots Down American Drone
Considered to be one of the more controversial decisions taken in 2019, the Iranian military shot down an unidentified drone near the Iranian coast on the 20th of June. The unknown aircraft was shot down on the orders of the Iranian government.
Iranian news agencies claimed that the aircraft belonged to the United States and was flying in Iranian occupied airspace. Despite President Trump initially denying the ownership of the aircraft, there was a sudden attempt by the United States to carry out a military strike only to be called off at the very last moment. Tensions soon escalated further after President Trump claimed that the aircraft was strictly flying over international airspace territory and Iran’s hostile activities posed a severe threat to global security. This episode was one which almost brought Iran to the brink of war against the United States and all its allies.
2. Iran’s 3rd Oil Tanker Seizure
August 4th, 2019 — It is reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized an oil tanker that was allegedly being smuggled to other Arab countries. Iranian news agencies claimed that the oil was illegally being transferred in a tanker belonging to Iraq: a close ally of Iran.
Consequently, President Trump lashed out at the Iranian government as the United States attempted to apply pressure on Iran by imposing strict sanctions that prevented Iran to sell its oil on an international level.
Iran, in-turn, made public statements that accused the west of consistently impinging Iran’s sovereignty. The Iranian government also suggested that they would further violate the 2015 nuclear agreement unless the European Union, along with the United States offer a balanced deal that would ease restrictions imposed on Iran. Although the European Union has partially agreed to Iran’s demands, the United States stands firm on its decision to opt out of the 2015 nuclear agreement with President Trump declaring to come up with a better version of the deal in the near future.
3. Supporting Houthis in Yemen
Iran finally admitted to offering military support to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels are an opposition political movement that has long rebelled against the recognised Yemeni government .
Saudi Arabia has often been accusing Iran of backing the Houthis in an attempt to gain influence in Yemen. Iran, initially refuting all such claims, finally admitted to partially providing support to the Houthis in the form of advisory only. Regardless, both Saudi Arabia and United States believe that the Iranian government is involved in much deeper involvement including providing weaponry and military hardware.
A potential for conflict?
Despite numerous third parties trying to mediate productive talks between Iran and the United States, there seems to be little light at the end of the tunnel. Iran maintains its stance of seeking regional dominance and further extending influence onto its neighbours.
According to a report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency, “Iran is willing to purchase a new advanced level of fighter jet that could cause an imbalance of power within the region.”
The report further claimed Iranian defence agencies are consistently preoccupied in developing a new type of missile system. Apart from that, the threat of Iran further working on developing its nuclear program is one such risk that could quite possibly force the United States and its allies to take urgent and severe action.
Ultimately — conflict between the United States and Iran would end in catastrophic consequences for all parties.
Our take
Ultimately — War remains unlikely. Having said that, each provocation escalates the situation further, closer to a military response. Trump will likely attempt negotiations with Iran primarily to stem the tide of war but also to protect the Strait of Hormuz, where 30% of the world’s sea-cargo oil supply passes through.
Iran doesn’t see these provocations as fighting fair but rather prefers clandestine and asymmetric threats. The game Iran plays is predicated on a bullish approach where Iran assumes its adversaries to be risk averse, ultimately empowering Iran to threaten and provoke further with little show of repercussion to be seen. It’s likely Iran will continue this approach into 2020 and we can expect intermittent provocations and attacks — on land, at sea and in the cyber domain.
One sign of regional peace and restraint is from Saudi Arabia who have backed away from their confrontational stance toward Iran, opting for dialogue instead.
Iran and the United States ultimately want to avoid any actions that could incite a military conflict, yet Tehran has every reason to continue pressuring Washington to drop its antagonistic approach on Nuclear disarmament. While Iran is actively choosing to abandon its obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) means that we could potentially see a nuclear level crisis by mid 2020.
We’re monitoring Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and their actions within the foreign, governmental and military affairs of others with our team of analysts in the region to keep abreast of regional analysis and what this means for our clients in the region. For more insight and analysis on this event as well as a global understanding of the issues that affect you, explore our wide range of analysis, intelligence and commentary at www.complexglobal.co
