Terror opportunities in the time of coronavirus

First Published on Wednesday 1st April 2020
by Tom Warneke
Global| Understanding Your World | Resolving Incidents & Crisis

With the amount of press and attention on the current Coronavirus outbreak, you could be forgiven for thinking that nothing else is going on in the world. Indeed, there’s much still going on in the global security and risk space. With governments distracted and authorities overwhelmed, conflicts and threats could easily escalate at this time.

Short Term & Immediate Threats

In the short term, non-state actors and militant groups are either taking a brief break or using this time to regroup, train and realign, not to mention planning new activities and actions. Resources in many countries are currently being redirected away from armed conflict into social programs and containing the virus. Additionally to this, many of these groups are leveraging the global push for self isolation in order to ramp up media campaigns, targeting and radicalising new members. Lastly, many of these groups operate in regional and isolated areas which are less impacted by the virus as urban areas. Deserts, forests and mountains all serve as excellent locations to not only ‘self-isolate’ themselves but also mean that they’re less likely to lose members due to illness.

There’s many major groups that would take advantage of the current atmosphere including ISIL and all their global affiliates not to mention Al Shabaab, Al Qaeda and the militant groups in the Phillipines as well as Jammu and Kashmir.

Long Term Threats

Beyond the immediate term, the long term impacts we’re seeing both politically, socially and economically will weaken government resolve — potentially driving the appeal and mandate of militant actors.

Defence departments as well as private enterprise are likely to be weakened due to a shortage in resources and funds. This is exponentially exacerbated in countries with already weak defence departments and resourcing. Beyond this, the radicalisation and recruitment is made all the more possible when poorer, marginalised sections of the population are left unemployed and lacking government assistance. These groups, as we’ve seen historically, thrive on this environment offering money and services typically offered by the government. Being seen as a de-facto government/provider may well boost legitimacy.

State Based Conflict

We must also remember that non state actors aren’t the only ones looking to snatch opportunity in the time of COVID-19.

March 18 saw Pakistan shell positions along the line of control in Jammu. This both signifies a surge in military activity as well as a potential raise in aggressive posture for both India and Pakistan.

In the past fortnight, more than four rocket attacks linked to Iranian backed militias were launched against the U.S. forces in Iraq.

Attacks are also still taking places in the usual hotspots of Somalia, Libya & Afghanistan as well as West Africa and the Sahel. Overall, it’s clear that despite our preoccupation in the west around COVID-19, for many parts of the world, it’s conflict business as usual.

Many of our clients globally are already engaging with us as they determine how to monitor the situation whilst continuing their operations and keep their teams and operations safe.

We’ve setup a hub on our website to help our clients track the situation as well as access the latest in analysis as well as advice from the World Health Organisation — find us at www.complexglobal.co/covid-19

We’re helping our clients through monitoring and analysis of the situation via inCountry as well as our local, regional & global analysts and experts as well as our crisis response and emergency management provisions — ensuring our clients are assisted in their time of need.

If you have concerns about your current operations and the risks to your team or your business or if you feel you need a more developed understanding in the current situation and what might help you be better prepared, our team is able to assist. We have an expansive team in most regions with access to the latest information and analysis as well as scenario planning and support. To find out how we can support you, our team can be reached at coronavirus@complexglobal.co