The changing U.S. presence in Iraq

by Tom Warneke
First published 26th April 2020
Middle East| Understanding Your World

A lot is happening currently in Iraq with the United States shifting and consolidating their bases. This also includes a drawdown of troops and resources. The United States continues to lead the anti Islamic State coalition. But with all of this in mind — what does the future hold for the United States/Iraqi relationship?

Harking back to hostilities in January, the U.S. forces is also actively targeting Iranian backed militias. This isn’t a simple action. Iran has a lot of friends in Iraq both privately and politically. Iraq relies on Iran for their domestic electricity supply.

The ongoing U.S. — Iran struggle is often putting the Iraqi government in a challenging position. Iran doesn’t want to see the United States too comfortable or powerful or in check with the Iraqi government however the Iraqi government needs to keep on side with both parties to continue functioning as a nation state.

The United States has often maintained a clear counter terrorism priority in Iraq and the wider Middle East. This has led to their current presence in the region. This too is seen as a way of furthering their goal of monitoring and containing Iranian influence across the region.

What next

In the near term, a wave of anti-government protest has swept across Iraq in recent times leading to the formation of a new government and installation of a new Prime Minister. This will be key in defining the relationship moving forward between Iraq and the United States. Secondarily to this is how this ‘new’ government will abide by the Iran sanctions.

A scheduled meeting between Iraq and the United States for June will address the strategic framework agreement. Military cooperation and the future of the U.S. / Iraq relationship will be on the table and will be key to understanding how the relationship progresses.