The Pentagon’s secret pre-crime program to know your thoughts, predict your future

US military contractors are mining social media to influence your ‘cognitive behavior’ when you get angry at the state

Nafeez Ahmed
Feb 1, 2016 · 13 min read

This exclusive is published by INSURGE INTELLIGENCE, a new crowd-funded investigative journalism project.

Could your social media signature reveal your innermost thoughts?

“… recognize/predict social contexts, relationships, networks, and intentions from social media, taking into account non-verbal communication such as gestures, micro-expressions, posture, and latent semantics of text and speech.”

“… algorithms for prediction and collection of latent signals and their use in predicting social information.”

Creeping police state

“Predictive analysis and real-time access to intelligence and tasking in the field will be available on modern mobile devices. Officers and staff will be provided with intelligence that is easy to use and relevant to their role, location and local tasking.”

The next threat is social change, economic collapse

“Analyses of the topology, power structure, productivity, merging and splitting, and overall resilience of change-driven organizations.”

“… will help the Department of Defense better understand what drives individuals and groups to mobilize for change and the mechanisms of that mobilization, particularly when violent tactics are adopted. This research will inform understanding of where organized violence may erupt, what factors might explain its spread, and how one might mitigate its effects.”

“Security implications of aging populations and shrinking working age populations worldwide.”

From open source to ‘minority report’

“In being able to use social media as an ISR [intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance] signal, ONR is interested in theoretical constructs that allow understanding and thus interpretation of an online open media signature and its relationship to on the ground sentiment and behavior.”

“It may be possible to better predict what affect ‘aiding,’ ‘attacking’, ‘isolating’ will have in an area if behaviour/action surrogates can be found in historical data for which some ground truth exists.”

The all-seeing eye

“While this works well for the detection of a behavior exhibited by a subpopulation (e.g. credit card fraud), its application to complex patterns applied to diverse actors leads to a high false alarm rate.”

Population control

“What affects people’s perceptions and decision-making that SOF can favorably influence to prevent/mitigate/deter crisis and conflict? What are the future advanced technologies and cultural social practices for engaging underdeveloped populations in support of partner governments to achieve US interests?”

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Nafeez Ahmed

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