Sharing an Autonomous Future
Much ink has been spilled on the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles (AVs), ranging from the dystopian scurge to utopian savoir and everything in between. If we take the technology as a given (and set aside nuanced discussions on safety, liability, or levels of autonomy) then the fundamental debate comes down to ownership. On one end of the spectrum you’ve got a group that favor a bottom-up approach that lets the market decide on who can buy AVs, where they can operate, and how they will fit into the existing infrastructure. On the other side are folks that emphasis a top-down strategy with strong regulatory frameworks that limits AV sales to specific parties, restricts operations to defined areas, and provides support for the people and business displaced by an autonomous future. Obviously there is a lot of gray area between these broad generalizations, with parties often changing sides of the debate and new elements constantly being added.
All of this can result in municipalities, even the larger ones, feeling unsure of whether to get involved. However, cities have much to gain by encouraging an outcome that trends towards the top-down strategy with a heavy emphasis on vehicle sharing. Especially those already choked by traffic. Analysis by UBS estimated that if the world moved away from private vehicle ownership, which results in cars sitting unused most of the day, that the global fleet of all vehicles could shrink by up to 50 percent by 2030 due to fuller utilization of each car on the road. The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP) nicely summarizes the potential futures outcomes based on varying degrees of sharing and automation in the infographic embedded below.
Sensing an opportunity, private companies have begun rolling out new products and business models of access to vehicles that blur their traditional boundaries to fill the vacuum left by policymakers. In a sign of things to come, Zipcar recently entered into a partnership with Uber that allows Uber drivers in Boston to rent underutilized vehicles from Zipcar in lieu of using a personal ones. One could easily imagine a future where a fleet of autonomous vehicles (AV) managed by Zipcar could be intermittently used for trips better suited for car share (going apple picking) or rideshare (heading into the city for a movie). This roughly mirrors the ‘3R’ scenario outlined by the ITDP. However, without guidance from regulators or policymakers, the ‘2R’ scenario could just as easily develop. A (relatively) easy first step for cities would be to increase the quantity (and quality) of parking spaces reserved for car sharing if they are at the forefront of AV utilization. Consider it the opening move in long term game to determine how AVs reshape our infrastructure and possibly better it by reducing the amount of cars in our cities.
