2017 in review: four political takeaways from this year
Andrew Dorman
The Commissioning Editor of International Affairs, Andrew Dorman, outlines major developments in global politics this year. As told to Benjamin Horton.
2017 has been a fascinating year. Predictions are always a hazardous business for academics and pundits alike. It would be fair to say that this year was more surprising than most, and often this was as much due to things which didn’t come to pass as things that did. Here I have collected my four major takeaways from domestic and international politics.
1) Trump defies prediction
January saw the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President, and the Trump phenomenon has been compulsive viewing ever since. Predictions of whether the President would last, whether he was competent, or what he was going to prioritise in office have been belied throughout the year, and I don’t think anyone saw how this was going to pan out.
Some detractors assumed that the US system of constitutional checks and balances might limit his scope, while others hoped that he would follow the example of former Presidents and tone down in contrast to his campaign trail rhetoric. This has not been the case. Another factor at play is how the US establishment has tried to rein in the President, and it is strange, to say the least, that his administration has been characterised by the rise of the generals as a stabilising force. In the history of civil-military relations that’s a pretty surprising turn.
2) The political rise of social media continues
While Donald Trump is clearly the foremost Twitter-based politician, there are many figures in other countries who are increasingly manipulating the possibilities of social media to engage with voters. Social media is becoming a mainstay of the diplomatic process, with the Brexit negotiations a prime example of how politicians can create public pressure on their opposite numbers or allies. On a cultural level, comedians and commentators alike have seen their criticisms of sitting politicians attract a viral audience through Facebook, YouTube and other platforms. How this continues to develop in 2018 will be gripping to watch.
3) Failed revolutions
2017 is the one hundredth anniversary of the October Revolution in Russia, but this year has been punctuated by revolutions which failed to come to pass. Democratic referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan suggested that there was widespread support within those regions for independence, but assertive reactions from the Spanish and Iraqi governments have effectively removed these debates from the political agenda, at least for the short-term.
A major exception is, of course, the very recent overthrow of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, but even in this case, it is still not clear to what extent his successor will bring about substantial change. At time of writing the early signs are that authoritarian continuity is more likely. It will be fascinating to see how the international community responds to the new Zimbabwe.
4) A Brexit-shaped vacuum
International Affairs is a UK-based journal, and naturally the editorial team has closely followed the ongoing Brexit negotiations. From a UK perspective, this process has completely dominated the political and media landscape in 2017. We have a government in Westminster which is struggling to deal with the scope of the challenge and the potential ramifications at home and abroad. In my own area of defence policy, it is clear that Brexit has prevented the sort of decision-making which the UK military needs. While civil servants are in the midst of the latest Defence Review, the government is struggling to make the tough decisions required, not least to maintain budgets despite the fall of sterling against the dollar and euro. Brexit is sucking much of the May government’s bandwidth, and at the same time it is threatening to fundamentally diminish the UK’s global significance.
What’s to come in 2018?
The essential question for politicians, both within the UK and elsewhere, is what sort of global society we wish to participate in. Our next issue of the journal looks at the future of the international liberal order, an order which until very recently has been dominated by the US. As the Trump presidency continues, will this international system survive, or will it be replaced by something else? Will other powers such as China look to take a lead? My sense is that significant challenges will arise in 2018 which will bring these questions to the fore.
Andrew Dorman is Commissioning Editor of International Affairs, and Professor of International Security in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London.
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