Davos: Day One
The World Economic Forum 2018 has begun in Davos, with the heavy blizzard and the Oxfam criticism securing the top spots on most newspapers coverage of the event. However despite this, it has been a packed agenda, with many events, panels and talks.
The American delegation is not just the largest, but one of the highest profile, featuring a substantial part of Donald Trumps cabinet, as well as numerous republican and democratic governors and congressmen. Trump will be the first sitting US president to attend since Bill Clinton in 2000. He will also be the most unpopular. He, and his Trade and Commerce Secretaries Robert Lighthizer and Wilbur Ross, are expected to come under substantial criticism for their advocacy for protectionist policy’s, a far shout from the deferential treatment Xi Jinping received in 2017. The end of the shutdown has alleviated concerns raised by @PoliticoRyan in yesterdays Davos Playbook about who would be footing the bill for the expenses incurred in the expensive resort town.
The EU delegation is smaller than previously, featuring seven commissioners, two vice-presidents and Jean-Claude Junker for the first time in over two decades, but European countries can still expect adequate representation, with most national governments sending a high profile delegation. As Politico’s Playbook was quick to point out, African, Latin American and Middle Eastern Leaders are still terribly underrepresented, with just 25 leaders between them. Considering the range of global topics that will be discussed which have the potential of negatively affecting the developing world, from migration to global energy outlook, this is as disappointing as it was expected.
Modi’s Address
Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi opened the talks today with a speech on India’s domestic improvements and the current global environment, the themes of which echoed closely with Xi Jinpings bid for a greater role in the world order last year. The talk was tinged with a mild sense of optimism, but lacked any compulsive or impactful sections. He is the first Indian PM to visit Davos since 1997, and many of those who were expecting him to confirm a substantially larger role in the world in the near future, or to join many of the other delegations in announcing a new global or domestic vision, will be left disappointed.
While he announced a target of doubling India’s GDP by 2025, this target is in line with current projections. As the chief representative of one of the worlds fastest growing economies, who is currently engaged in economic reform back home, he could have been expected to announce a mildly more optimistic target- after all it is a sales-pitch not a treasury report. He could have expected to have gotten away with it, but if anything this is representative of his entire speech, mildly optimistic of the future but not anything jubilant, progressive or unexpected.
His speech included four key points setting out his agenda which start 44 minutes into it. The first two can be seen as a criticism of both Trumps rising protectionist actions and chinas territorial ambitions, both common themes throughout the speech, but one that may have been much more subdued than some media profiles were expecting. There were more barbs targeted at Beijing than at Washington, but the tone was not seen as escalating or worrying.
Modi had been predicted to be one of the major players defending the status quo at Davos this year, while other leaders from Macron to Xi and even Trump all present their own agendas and visions for the future, and that was certainly the main aspect of his talk that came through. The four points have been summarised below:
1.Big powers of the world must have cooperative relations. Competitive nature shouldn't become a wall between them. Set aside differences to meet global challenges.
2. More important than ever to adhere to a rules based international order, especially where changes can give rise to uncertainty. This action must be done in the right spirit.
3.Bring reforms in major institutions, participation, democratisation, in line with current situation.
4.There must be more speed to the economic progress of the world, however there are encouraging indicators. Tech and digital revolution help combat old issues in a new way.
Points three and four were expected, and despite appearing to call for change it is still a defence of the status quo, albeit a self interested one, calling for India to be given a larger role in the existing world order and its organisations. Point two can be seen as a criticism of both Trump and, laughably, Britains calls to reform the WTO, although many of the attendees will see it as incredibly hypocritical- they will not have forgotten how India singlehandedly blocked a substantial amount of progress at the Argentina Ministerial late last year.
He reinforces his commitment to the world order by talking about India’s increased manpower contribution to UN peacekeeping operations, and its work providing humanitarian assistance in neighbouring countries, before moving onto the conclusion. If we were meant to read this as drawing greater attention to their expansion of soft power in the region, it required stronger emphasis.
And the rest
Other key talks included a press conference on “The Fourth Industrial Revolution in Japan”, matching the the WEF report on the forth Industrial revolution, the need for re-skilling workers, and its impact in America, that was released yesterday, and a talk on China’s potential position leading the world.
Following the slow economic recovery from the Global Financial Crash, a range of talks on reforming capitalism was to be expected- the genre has been a staple of Davos since- and included a number of good panels and events on a range of topics, from monopolies in the tech sector to rentier economics and the potential for the next financial crisis.
Global security and geo-strategic analysis are another major part of Davos, but were represented in a heavily pessimistic and negative light this year. Included among them today was two major talks covering the topic of migration. The first was Reconnecting Refugees, a high profile panel talk that included Filippo Grandi, the new head of UNHCR, Sara Pantuliano from ODI, and Louise Mushikiwabo, the Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs among a panel of six people.
Sara Pantuliano later also featured on a press conference on the humanitarian crisis that will shape 2018, alongside the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Peter Maurer, and chaired by Georg Schmitt, the WEF head of Corporate Affairs. Given the lack of media coverage of the increasing potential of the Rohingya Crisis before this year, and the increasing vulnerability to both conflict, climate and economic displacement among large sections of the world, it is good that migration and refugees still hold a significant position in the global political debate.
As Politco’s Playbook also reported, Facebook has a much more discrete profile than previous years, as could be expected in a year where they have come under sustained media attack for their role in L’Affair Russe and the Brexit Referendum.
Politicians and businessmen are not the only ones descending upon Davos this week, with hundreds of NGOs expected to turn up in an attempt to network to raise funds and their profile with those with the access to those funds. While the amounts given this week might be negligible, the business world contracting into a single town makes it easy to receive substantial commitments to future funding, incentivising substantial turnout of major and minor players in the third sector.
Justin Trudeau closed the event with a special address at 16:30, where he began by announcing the completion of the negotiations for a new Trans-Pacific Partnership, the key point of news for today. Slipping between english and french, he defended free trade as being beneficial for everyone, and continued the theme of the fourth industrial revolution that has been prevalent this first day, talking about automation and profound social and economic changes that are coming.
He defended peoples fear and anxiety over these changes, and attacked current business practices that boost profits at the expense of workers rights and wages. He called for companies to give more back, to have a greater social purpose, and to change practices before they were forced to, before talking about the necessity of gender equality, the value that could be added to various economies, and his track record on that matter.
While today was interesting and exciting, it is at night that the real Davos starts, with deals, networking, and socialising occurring in the numerous bars, venues, and backrooms that have popped up around the town.
Conclusion
Davos is a microscopism of the global environment, condensed all too briefly into the snowy streets of a Swiss ski resort, and as such global trends and events are exemplified.
Continuing the trajectory towards a plurilateral world, it will be the first time where a sitting American President, a European Commissioner, a Chinese Premier and an Indian Prime Minister are at Davos together. Despite this, it is unlikely there will be any substantial geo-political overtures in the coming days, just as today lacked anything substantial.
Likewise both the prevalence of pessimistic geo-strategic analyses, with their focus on migration, conflict and a fractured world order, and the optimistic and futurist themes of the science and technology talks are representative of the world today, with technology changing and improving at an unprecedented rate, and the global security situation declining.
The first day of Davos has ended for the general public, and it has ended without any major surprises or upsets. The only substantial news was the completion of TPP, a nice reversal of the anti-free trade sentiments of the last year, but not an unexpected one. The following few days, with China, the EU, and American delegations having a larger public role, may be more exciting and more suggestive as to what 2018 has in store.
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