May Turkey access to EU right now?
The negotiations between Turkey and EU on the accession of the former to the latter started in the late 1950’s and still have not been concluded. There are mainly two reasons thereof: economic and politic instability of Turkey on one side, and the changing dynamics of EU on the other.
First of all, the accession of new members to EU is regulated by art. 49 TEU, that establishes both substantive and procedural requirements. The latter consists of an unanimous vote of the Council, after the consultation of the Commission and the consent of the Parliament, that shall act by a majority of its members. Under a substantive point of view, the TEU requires the respect of European core values, that are incorporated by art. 2 TEU, such as freedom, equality, democracy and human rights.
But it has to be remembered that EU is not a human rights organisation and that its main scope is the protection of its own internal market with the rights of free movement that come with it. Thus, in 1993 the European Council was summoned in Copenhagen, Denmark, to lay down three genres of criteria that have to be satisfied by the applicant State (which are therefore named “the Copenhagen criteria”):
- economic condition: a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces;
- political condition: stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities;
- adhesion to the acquis communitaire: administrative and institutional capacity to effectively implement the acquis and ability to take on the obligations of membership.
Additionally, also “the Union’s capacity to absorb new members, while maintaining the momentum of European integration” will be assessed.
After various political happenings between the two entities, the Council decided to start the access negotiation in 2005. But for the first time it decided also to settle extra conditions concerning this process, stating for instance that in breach of fundamental rights and freedoms, democracy and rule of law, negotiations could be suspended by the Commission’s or Council’s decision and that even if Turkey would meet the membership requirements, the EU could still reject Turkey’s membership on the basis of its own absorption capacity for new members. Clearly the EU has used its role and its power to clarify that “there was a possibility for Turkey not to become a full EU member even though the negotiations are finished successfully and in case of a possible membership, it would not be on equal terms with the other member states” (1). And, as we can notice, after more than 10 years negotiations seem frozen.
A crucial role in this procedure is played by the EU conditionality, that can be described as a “process by which candidate countries adopt the EU legislation and revise their systems as a part of the requirements for membership”. Its success depend mainly on three factors:
- the conditional offer of EU membership to the target government;
- the normative consistency of the EU’s enlargement decisions;
- low political compliance costs of the target government.
In simple words, in order for the EU conditionality to work, the prospective Member State has to consider the benefits of changing its social, economic and political structure higher than the costs of making these changes and therefore convenient for itself.
Thus, there is no wonder that the negotiations froze after 2005. The so-called “Turkish exception” that has been mentioned above surely did not encourage it in fulfilling the goals, especially considering that there is no certainty for Turkey to have access to EU membership anyway. Poor Turkey..
In this situation, both entities suffered from political instabilities. EU was hit by the financial crisis and experienced Eastern enlargement. Also the constitutional referenda that took place in France and in the Netherlands in 2005 brought into being a legitimacy issue. On the other side, the Republic of Turkey also faced changes. After the second victory of AKP in 2007, the benefits perceptions on EU access decreased. Also the fact that the dispute-settlement with Cyprus was a precondition for negotiation did not help it, as the major political powers were afraid of losing its domestic support.
And the fact is that political instabilities don’t seem to slow down in both places. All over Europe, anti-Muslim and anti-EU political forces are constantly gaining power. Turkey is not more stable, for sure. Not only many documented violations of human rights took place there recently, but also the chances that it may also throw a “Turkexit” referendum is well alive (2).
Even though the Turkish accession to EU under TEU is legally possible, it seems that it is not politically probable yet, as long as Turkey does not change its attitude both in the domestic and the international-relations fields. The agreement that EU and Turkey made this year over the migrants should hypothetically help the latter to get access to the former, but it seems legally difficult as long as Turkey is not willing to higher its standards for human rights protections (e.g., Turkey is trying re-introduct death penalty after the 2016 coup d’ètat (4)).
Refereces:
- Çelenk, A. A. (2016). ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS AND THE NEW EU STRATEGY OF TURKEY: A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT/KATILIM MÜZAKERELERY VE TÜRKYYE’NYN YENY AVRUPA BYRLYDY STRATEJYSY: ELESTYREL BYR DEDERLENDYRME.Erciyes Üniversitesi Iktisadi Ve Idari Bilimler Faküeltesi Dergisi, (47), 85–99. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com.vu-nl.idm.oclc.org/docview/1829471237?accountid=10978
- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-could-put-eu-talks-to-a-referendum-next-year-says-erdogan-a7416576.html
- http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37143879
- http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-death-penalty-erdogan-reintroduce-debate-consider-turkish-parliament-a7386591.html
