Global Power Transition
The presence of power is certainly natural in international relations. Observed by any perspective, the differences between these competing powers are among the most dominant factors that influence international relations, both as a phenomenon and as a field of study.
The rise of China as a prominent power recently, both regionally and globally, reopens discussions and debates on the dynamics and shift occurring to the power configuration. Of course, the United States is considered as a superpower, a hegemon even, after the end of the Cold War (1945–1989). Even so, its status as a global power is currently being challenged by China, seen as pacing to surpass the United States. As such, the issue of global p0wer transition is a very relevant topic to discuss.
Global power
Global power transition is one normal phenomenon in international relations, and it has occurred several times in history. Nevertheless, it is important for us to get a new understanding how global power transition happens, especially by looking at the history mirror.
In a broad, general overview of what is known as “global power”, we will recall a number of familiar names, such as the Roman Empire, the Chinese Empire, Great Britain, and of course, the United States in our modern age. I do believe that not all of them can be called as “global power”, considering the different ways for each era in constructing the world as they know it is.
For most part of human history, different powers of different era view the world differently. For instance, the Chinese Empire viewed the world with itself as the center (better known as the Middle Kingdom or Zhongguo) and the other states surrounding it became satellites that circulated around it — thus China can be considered as a global power in accordance to China’s own perspective, since China, undoubtedly, was the strongest power in its own region (or backyard, so to speak), from the days of the Qin Dynasty (221–206 BCE) to the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911 CE). We can observe the same pattern during the days of the Roman Empire: When the Empire ‘conquered the world’, indeed it conquered Europe — the whole world as they knew it — by ways not dissimilar to how the Chinese viewed its world at its time. Considering that, there are indeed a number of powers that need to be considered, such as the Mongol Empire, once conquered Asia and Eastern Europe, the Ottoman Empire, or even the Sriwijaya Kingdom, once a notable maritime power in its region.
This fact makes it difficult to determine, at least in the past, that a power transition actually occurred, since most of these powers were power at its own world at practically the same period of time. For instance, when the Ottoman Empire (1299–1923 CE) was at its zenith, at almost exactly the same time there were two major dynasties of the Chinese Empire, the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644 CE) and the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912 CE), alongside the Holy Roman Empire, the Russian Empire, and of course the British Empire. Therefore, up to this point, it is difficult to say that there was any global power, with the exception of being a global power in its own world, based on how each power constructed the world around it, let alone to call that there was a global power transition, since those powers were indeed power at almost the same time.
I argue that the British Empire was the first true global power, especially considering the huge scope of influence that the British had across the world. The old adagium that says, “The sun never sets in the British Empire” shows that the influence of the British Empire was that widespread, to all corners of the world. It also demonstrated a shift from older perspectives of the world: Finally we can understand the world in the way we understand best today, all the five continents and other things that make us understand the concept global. The understanding is indeed older than various ancient views on power, that consider the world as its own along with other states surrounding it as subordinates (or vassals).
The United States is definitely another true global power, considering the global influence that it possesses. Even though it no longer conquers parts of the world physically, as done by the British Empire in the 19th century, the influence of the United States is inevitable. It does not stop at influence, its preference is felt everywhere, although in various forms, including deployment of its huge troops, or through the economy via its multinational corporations.
Back to the British Empire and the United States, they are the true global empire not simply due to the view that they are considerably more powerful that powers of the past, yet due to the perspective and understanding of what is ‘global’ that they have is considerably more all-encompassing than others from the bygone era. Thus, we can conclude that the term “global power” depends highly on perception, on the construction of what constitutes the world that each power has.
How global power transition happens
Global power transition happens when the power configuration does not stand as a mere ‘free market’ in which any aspiring state can easily enter to the said ‘market’ and ‘compete’ with each other. Certainly though, global power transition requires status, a standing which can be competitively achieved, and when the standing is in a comparative, relative state: there is a ‘higher’ status and a ‘lower’ status. Therefore, it is possible to get a ‘winner’ in the competition, that is to say, the power that strives more to get the said ‘higher’ status.
Needless to say, one needs to realize that merely being ‘more’ is never sufficient. I do believe that global power is also a construction of ascribed status, which means that not only the said power becomes the ‘highest’ power among others, but also fulfills a number of criteria that makes it rightful to bear the said status. Aside from edging more in most — if not all — aspects, the said power should be able also not only to influence other powers and countries to submit to its will, and to make these other states dependant to it. Furthermore, global power status is highly expensive, and it is uncertain that any state is willing to pay the price and sacrifice necessary, even if that state has the necessary resources to pay. Fulfillment of that criteria is certainly competitive, which creates the edge of one state to another.
The United States seems to have fulfilled those criteria. Its status as a global power can be held accountable not simply because the United States is above everyone else in many ways, but also due to the fact that the United States has the preponderance to spread its influence all over the world, not to mention that many countries are actually dependant to it. On the other hand, while we are observing China’s rise to prominence in the past few years, it is a bit difficult to say that China can equal what the United States manages to achieve within decades after the end of World War II (1939–1945). Not only China has to compete to surpass the United States in a plurality of aspects (politics, economy, military, culture), but it remains to be seen whether China is able to provide as huge influence as the United States, especially to those countries that are not exactly dependant to China.
Therefore, the next question is, how can global power transition take place? It is possible, if China fulfills all the criteria that a global power has, with the aspiration and strong realization to achieve that status. Even if China is now able to compete with the United States in two or three aspects, as a matter of fact, it is still years way for China to have the necessary push to become a global power that is on par with the United States. Clearly, we need to consider the fact that China is still looking to stabilize its own domestic politics first with a much limited international role.
Global power transition and modern study of International Relations
While global power transition may remain a few years away from our present time, I believe there is one last interesting question to ponder, how will our modern understanding of global power transition influence the way we learn International Relations (the field of study) today? It is highly possible that this kind of understanding will create a significant impact to the modern study of International Relations, especially if the global power transition does really happen from the United States to a new global power.
Ever since its inception, it is difficult to evade the fact that the field of International Relations is an ‘American’ study, or at least, influenced highly by American perspective. As difficult as it is to say this, I should say that at least parts of International Relations are actually studies of the United States and how it, as a global power, plays multiple roles in international relations, while at the same time calling for other countries to follow its lead and example as ‘the ideal state actor’ of international relations. Most of the theories of International Relations are of American thoughts, and the status of the United States is also studied, considering its hegemonic status. States are understood of putting forth interest defined in terms of power, very much expressed by the United States.
It is highly possible to conclude that the United States’ status as global power provides it with privilege to ‘write’ the field of International Relations in its own way. Pretty much similar to the old adagium that says, “History is written by the winners,” the United States, as ‘winner’ of the global power contestation in the 20th century, then writes the formalization of the study of International Relations as seen from the eyes of the United States.
If China manages to complete the global power transition from the United States to itself, it can be expected that changes may happen to the field of International Relations in the future. Today, there are new perspectives among Chinese International Relations scholars that are driven from classical International Relations perspectives, but imbued with Chinese influence, such as Chinese Realism. Not only the problem of perspective, the way China does the global power transition can also provide a fresh view to the field of International Relations in the future. Today, China considers its rise to prominence as a global power with the term “peaceful development”, way different from the United States, long perceived of giving no mercy to anyone that stands on its path to prominence.
Thus, there is a huge probability that a change of perspective to the field of International Relations may happen in the future, if the global power transition does happen. Will Chinese Realism be the new master of International Relations theories in the future when China becomes a global power, or possibly the Mandala theory becomes chapter one in every book if India becomes a global power? We may not know the answer today, but I think there is a chance if future global power(s) may alter the way we learn International Relations, especially to lure it away from its ‘American-centric’ sense.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I want to stress the following ideas:
1. The issue of global power transition is a highly relevant issue to be discussed, notably in respect to the development of modern study of International Relations;
2. Past global powers cannot be said to be true global powers, as these past powers are hugely limited by the way they construct the world around them;
3. The British Empire, especially that of the 19th century, and the United States, are examples of true global powers;
4. To become a global power, not only a state has to be the best in all aspects, but the state must also be able to influence other states, create dependence, and willing to pay the necessary cost and sacrifice of becoming a global power, and only thus it can become a global power;
5. Until today, China is not yet on the necessary path of going through a global power transition, since it is yet to fulfill the said criteria;
6. Only when the global power transition happens, we may be able to feel the influence to the way we study and understand the phenomenon of international relations through the study of International Relations.
