Moore’s Law: in Theory and Practice
We’ve had a number of fascinating discussions in our class sessions throughout this semester about the nature of digital technologies, which are undergoing immense changes, and how such changes are impacting society. I’ve enjoyed these discussions because it gives us an opportunity to step back and think about what’s happening around us, focusing our attention on the broader picture as well as the intricacies as things fly by us. It’s definitely one of the big reasons why I’m so glad I decided to pursue my MLIS, and furthermore, why I’m glad I registered for this class.
One concept Troy talked about a little in class back on October 5 that caught my attention is the Moore’s Law, the concept that the number of transistors available in the circuitry of computing technology will double every two years, which has made computing technology so low in cost.
It’s interesting to note that while Gordon Moore made this prediction, the basis of the law named for him, 50 years ago, in practice, it’s turned out differently. Intel, the company co-founded by Moore, recently announced that it would actually take 2 ½ years to create the new circuitry, deviating from the 2-year schedule that had been set. This comes after the Moore’s Law has been adjusted a few times from its conception, first a doubling every 10 years, then 2 years, and then 18 months — all to say that this rule has never been precise.
And going back to the rule in strictly the theoretical sense, there’s a limit, as when the transistors get so small they can’t shrink anymore. This limit could explain why the law only works so well.
But the Intel corporation could be right in saying that despite the delays, it’s still on track to develop the new circuitry with double the number of transistors. So there’s something compelling about this law, that processing power can increase exponentially, which means digital technologies are capable of doing so much in such a short period of time. But what happens when we reach the limits? How does a plateau manifest itself when it comes to digital technologies? Perhaps it’s possible that digital technologies can only get so good. Once the circuitry reaches its computing power capacity, it will eventually become a commonplace technology replicated by other companies. And then, companies will probably find ways to get people hooked onto using this technology, and then find some way to charge them, much like The New York Times has put so much of its content online and now charges regular readers to view its online content.
What I write here are only my ideas. It’s hard to fully picture what might happen. But I imagine some innovative minds will work to find other ways to enhance technology.
Clark, D. (2015, July 16.) Moore’s Law is Showing Its Age. “The Wall Street Journal.” Retrieved from http://www.wsj.com/articles/moores-law-is-showing-its-age-1437076232
