The Illusion of Technological Permanence
There exists this illusion in research that of “diminishing returns”. Any new research field has a problem where low hanging fruit is picked first and those, who did it first, are celebrated for their genius. But all technological progress is through the recombination of existing technologies.
Humans tend to perceive a greater significance to progress that is novel and new over progress than is based on the recombination of the existing. But most technologies that are useful are always a product of recombination of the old and the new.
All exponentially growing technologies are a consequence of their propensity for recombination. Technologies that grow are able to leverage frictionless recombination.
Humans, unfortunately, are unable to recognize exponential growth. We only recognize linear growth and only approximate exponential growth using linear measures. Many useful technologies today, however, are recombinant. Stagnant technologies that do eventual fade away are those that have difficulty being repurposed to new purposes. Technologies are concepts, methods, and things that serve a purpose. The ones that we make available to us are the ones that we find useful.
Humanity also fails to recognize that technology gradually changes how we do things. We only recognize this only in hindsight. When we watch movies created a few decades ago, we realize that humans walked around without a constant connection with their world. The gradual changes in technologies imply that old ways of doing things don’t instantly disappear, but gradually fade away. Old ways are also related to other old ways, and therefore the pace of change is slow while obsolescence takes its time to propagate.
We fail to recognize that language, laws, customs, ethics, and beliefs are all also technologies. We assume that these are not and therefore also assume that these are permanent. But like all technologies, they also decline in their usefulness. But there are many people who promote the falsehood of their permanence. We have a natural bias towards things that we have invested so much in understanding. Change is difficult because it requires the destruction of our experiences. It is, unfortunately, our experiences that make us who we are.
Many today are born in a world where the internet has always existed. For them, this is a natural part of the world. Virtual things are for as real to them as physical things.
But the fluidity of the virtual world isn’t present in the physical world. This creates a pervasive cognitive dissonance. One becomes suspicious when one’s notion of what should be natural doesn’t exist in the real world. The movement towards seeking meaningful experiences over meaningful things is a reflection of this new perspective.
This embrace of fluidity over permanence is pervasive in the mindset of many. This has its effect also on the kind of technologies we chose to build on. In software, we use technologies that prefer the speed of construction over the stability of its foundations. t’s only through experience that we learn the flaws in our ways. Ex: Javascript and Python now can declare types. There are many technologies that we’ve adopted in recent years that are unmaintainable. But perhaps that’s okay, we favor movement over stability.
Yes, nobody wants to pay upfront for manageability (also the name of a former blog). Nobody really seems to care anymore. We are jumping from one new experience to the next one without a care for the poor souls who have to pick up after us. Nobody wants to be the janitor that spends all his time maintaining something that isn’t truly permanent.
The additional effect of experience over permanence is that our products are designed to be thrown away after use. Companies deliberately infuse their products with artificial obsolescence. Smart phones that are three years old are worth next to nothing when traded-in. We don’t even have to mention how Apple phones had been programmed to slow down with battery degradation. Newer automobiles that are loaded with electronics are cost-prohibitive to fix when the electronics (and not the mechanics) fail. The mechanics may survive your 6-year car loan but don’t count on the electronics to last.
However, to build something of relevance today, one always needs to balance the old with the new. This is why our designs must incorporate a bridge from the past to the present.
But the reality of the old is that it will someday disappear. This is in conflict with humans that seek permanence. Unfortunately, permanence is an illusion. Therefore, we need future technologies that have the purpose of creating permanence. We need technologies that create the illusion of permanence. That is because real permanence is an impossibility.
The disconnect in today’s politics is that many have the nostalgia of a previously better world. This is an illusion and the reality of that world will never come back. To satisfy the needs of humanity, we can learn from the Amish and use technology to create virtual worlds that are in the real world. Imagine Renaissance Festivals that are 24 hours, seven days a week.
Not all humans have personalities that match the needs of today’s modern world. Therefore, we must give humans the opportunity to live in other worlds and in other cultures (Could explain the popularity of long running narratives like the Marvel Universe). We need to promote a variety of cultures rather than a single monoculture. We need technology that allows humans to thrive in alternate realities.
The future of humanity depends on creating an illusion of permanence.
