Decoding bitcoin ETFs recent negative flows — GBTC losses $600M+

CoinFantasy
Invest Gaming Journal
3 min readMar 28, 2024

Look into the recent trend of Bitcoin ETFs experiencing negative flows, with GBTC losing a significant amount in a day.

Decoding bitcoin ETFs Flow

Understanding Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are exchange traded funds that track the price of Bitcoin. They offer exposure to the price move of the cryptocurrency without necessarily owning the coins. Investors can buy shares of the ETF, which in turn is proportionate to a fraction of the total Bitcoin.

A Bitcoin ETF is designed to offer more regulation and access for investors to invest in Bitcoin. It offers the potential for diversification and liquidity, trading on traditional market exchanges.

GBTC negative outflow

In an unprecedented movement within the cryptocurrency investment landscape, Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a monumental outflow exceeding $640 million on March 18, marking a historical day of withdrawals since its transformation into a spot ETF on January 11.

The magnitudes of these outflows underline a marked shift in investor sentiment and, more broadly, reflect just how fickle the cryptocurrency market really is.

Grayscale’s Historic Outflows

That event had Grayscale record outflows of a massive $642.5 million in just one day. A large redemption from the spot Bitcoin ETF by the crypto-asset manager points to fluctuating investor confidence, which might have been set off by either recent trends within the market or more far-reaching macroeconomic issues within the cryptocurrency space.

Comparing Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF Performance

On the other hand, Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF, which is another heavy consideration in the space, saw inflows of barely $5.9 million on Thursday, according to Far Side Investors data.

The striking difference in the inflow rates between the two leading Bitcoin ETFs points to a far broader trend of caution or possibly reallocation in investment strategies among participants in the crypto market.

The Overall Impact

A combination of these events resulted in a net outflow of $154.3 million for spot Bitcoin ETFs on the day, where there was considerable capital retraction from these investment vehicles. This shift comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price is experiencing a downturn, trading at $64,403 (at the moment) down 10.6% from it’s all-time high of $73,797 recorded on March 14, according to CoinGecko.

What’s perhaps most interesting is that, while the outflows were more than double the inflows, some analysts feel that a bright future could still be ahead for Bitcoin ETF flows. Grant Engelbart, vice president at the Carlson Group investment firm, said that a handful of their advisors reported seeing clients allocating money into Bitcoin ETFs.

He pointed out that this represented an average investment ratio of 3.5% of the total funds and said, therefore, that there could still be a runway for Bitcoin ETF inflows to gather momentum in the future.

Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, echoed Englebart’s sentiment, stating that early adopters were the main investors exploring and making allocations to spot Bitcoin ETFs. He further hinted that inflows to Bitcoin ETFs could continue rising over the next few days and weeks, indicating that the investment options for clients keep lingering in the minds of financial advisors.

Additionally, some commentators pointed out the remaining amount of Bitcoin held by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (370,000 Bitcoin) as an indicator of potential long-term bullishness for ETF flows.They therefore believe that the current pace of outflows is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely and, therefore, it could continue apace for some time before it leads to future inflows.

Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

A number of things have been pointed out that might be the reason behind the recent price action depression in Bitcoin, such as the slow pace of Bitcoin ETF flows and anticipation of the halving event for Bitcoin. The upcoming Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting could also be one of the leading factors. However, despite the immediate bearish sentiment, some analysts remain optimistic about the future of Bitcoin ETF flows and the overall cryptocurrency market.

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