The Beginning
Genesis 1:1~3 In the beginning, God created heavens and the earth. But the earth became waste and emptiness, and darkness was on the surface of the deep, and the Spirit of God was brooding upon the surface of the waters. And God said, Let there be light, and there was light.
It could be an overstatement but investment world was created, not by God but by people. It is created and carefully calculated by those very smart and very powerful few. Some in the government while others in the industry. Either way, the games created by the very smart and very powerful few are not easily deciphered.
As a newbie in the world of investment, I murmured from time to time. The knowledge is not forthcoming and professionals do not talk to amateurs. The only available information is rumors and faith starts out with “I believe”. There is simply no easy answer to investments. Big money and small money have positions in the investment world.
‘sounds cliche?
Those who knows do a bookkeeping on the wins and lose. I would called this group of people the amateur-professionals. The amateur-professionals pondering rationally before his/her next move. The rationality, however, may not be totally rational. It could be biased as the data collected may be biased from the beginning. After all, amateur-professionals are still a one man game. The level of knowledge and the scale of professionalism are definitely no comparison to the investment research done by Goldman Sachs’ hundred people team.
As for those who invest but do not actually know the game, hearsay plays the upper hand. It is a belief system that runs among friends, relatives, or even work places. Win rate from hearsay is not necessarily bad. Compare to those who devised a plan with careful calculations and executions before heading out to bid, hearsay sometimes gets more out of the game. Sometimes!
My first investment was made to a high return but unstable cashflow target. It was a hearsay and a lesson learnt. Until this day, I reminded myself luck out of hearsay occurs too random and is probably not my thing. A failed investment and a broken trust put a pause on the money game for a few years. Naive is not a good thing when it comes to the adult world. It is not cute. It is a simple stupidity that costs.
Eight years after my failed experience, I joined a team that works on equity market forecasting and bond market analysis on the side. I initially studied a bunch for my work. However, as it turned out to be a fun learning. I thought instead of a detailed and professional report, I would post some of my ways of thinking for these investments that I cross path with. Let the investment begins.
