Mobility Market Forecast: In The Long Run
iomob.net CEO Boyd Cohen PhD was a contributor to The Convergence Ecosystem in Mobility by Outlier Ventures. Community manager Lawrence Stoican summarises the impact behind the report.
As technology progresses, so do human expectations. Our exponential growth and boom in technology is not to be taken lightly. Let us not forget that the first Apple iPhone is only 11 years old, a time frame within which we have made smartphones better, bigger, faster and more efficient. One key feature which has enabled such advancements is demand. If the people demand it, companies are obliged to provide it (due to profit-maximizing mentality). Those who don’t play the game stand to lose out, just as mobile phone provider Nokia have illustrated.
In 2008, Nokia had grossed a whopping $28.7bn, and they owned the majority of the mobile phone industry market share. However, with the rise of competition from Apple, Samsung, LG, and other smartphone providers, the tables had turned, as 10 years later, in 2018 they grossed less than half of that, with $10bn.
The same can be said for the mobility industry, as the desire for on-demand transport providers is rising. Today we take a look at what the future has in store regarding mobility, and what we can expect.
To continue the smartphone analogy, we can look at Uber as an example of that very first iPhone. The first (popular) iteration of on-demand transport, whereby users pay to move between specific geographical locations. In fact, Uber has become so popular and cost-efficient that some governments have decided to ban it, in order to protect domestic mobility markets, with some of the notable countries being Denmark, Italy, and France. Despite not having access to these markets, Uber still managed to rake in about $2.5bn profits in the first quarter of 2018 alone. A trend is at play.
Many of the big city dwellers are starting to realize that using personal vehicles to get around is simply not cost-efficient, especially when getting to and from the workplace. An article by BBC tells us that:
“ Motorists in London lost an average of 74 hours — more than three days — in 2017, an hour more than in 2016.”
Evidently, many have turned to public transport solutions such as the Underground, Overground, Rail, and Bus system. The issue here is that these are long-standing infrastructures which take long periods of time, and large amounts of money to improve.
Even so, it has been pointed out that some of these traditional public mobility modes can be unreliable at times, with Southern, one of the most populated railway services in the UK, having repeated strikes throughout 2018 alone.
Who is then set to take advantage of the need and demand for reliable mobility solutions? It is currently estimated that people are becoming less and less attached to their personal vehicles as
“The mobility market is forecast to grow at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 91.32% from $0.5 billion USD today to $2.3 trillion USD in 2030”
This is further supported by the fact that the share of people (16 to 24 years) who own a car (in the US) has dropped by 5% in just 13 years… could this be the start of a trend? Although the data is not conclusive, the fact that the global commercial vehicle market size is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% in the next 7 years, is a supporting argument, and definitely works towards that conclusion.
Things are moving fast in the mobility industry, and it is further estimated that by 2030, 60% of the world’s population will live in urban cities. This means we must act fast and efficiently as to avoid a major catastrophe regarding our transportation system. Improving mobility where possible is imperative, which is perhaps why the London Mayor is pouring £2.2bn into the London roads in order to make them suitable for walking and cycling. Urban mobility demand is further expected to increase by 36% between 2010–2030, and a further 38% between 2030–2050. Of which bike and car sharing would probably stand atop of, as people familiarize themselves further with systems alike Uber.
We can, therefore, expect people to rely less and less on their personal vehicles and public transport. People are already demanding a Pay-Per-Use model whereby they spend the exact required amount for moving between two specific points. No more standing in queues, tapping in and out, rushing to make a train or bus on time, or having to deal with delays or employee strikes.
Interested in the numbers? The statistics in this article are provided by Outlier Ventures, in The Convergence Ecosystem in Mobility report, to which Iomob was a contributor.
https://www.slideshare.net/OVioHQ/the-convergence-ecosystem-in-mobility
Iomob is working to decentralize and build the Internet of Mobility, by incentivizing and facilitating the use of alternative transport. By using the blockchain, Iomob plans to minimize fees and allow mobility providers and end-users alike to connect on a peer-to-peer basis. In their own words: Iomob is “a system which produces a useful output at the lowest possible marginal cost.”
Learn more about Iomob by connecting with us:
Telegram — Twitter — Instagram — Facebook — LinkedIn — YouTube
Subscribe to our newsletter to keep up to date with the latest iomob news: https://upscri.be/cf561d/
