2019 Mobile World Congress Recap: Smartphones Get Interesting Again
Foldable and 5G phones wooed the crowd, but the future of mobile remains in flux
Today marks the last day of the 2019 Mobile World Congress (MWC), the world’s leading exhibition of new smartphones and mobile tech. Held in Barcelona, Spain every February, the MWC offers a good platform to see the latest trends in mobile and get a sense of where the global smartphone industry is heading.
In early January, Apple had to adjust its sales forecast for the latest quarter, citing weak China sales amid trade tensions as the primary reason. The announcement triggered a broader selloff that sent Apple’s stock value plummeting, indicating a strong skepticism among analysts over the future growth of mobile.
While Wall Street was mostly overreacting to the news, it is not hard to see why the market has seemingly lost confidence in the world’s leading smartphone brand. As we wrote in our assessment of the smartphone industry following Apple’s latest iPhone releases in October, the smartphone market has reached a plateau in most global markets after over a decade of rapid growth. Most western countries, plus China, have reached near-saturation in terms of smartphone adoption. Recent data from Gartner shows global smartphone sales stalled in Q4 2018, with a measly 0.1% growth over 2017’s holiday quarter.
Across markets, the upgrade cycle is getting longer as smartphone users hold on longer to their devices, thanks to improved device durability, uniform form factors, as well as stagnating software features, which further dampen global growth. Average iPhone upgrade cycle now lasts four years, up from three in 2018. In other words, people started to lose interest in the new phones, because they all by and large look and feel the same, with few differentiations from previous models.
In response to the plateauing smartphone sales, this year’s MWC showcased a renewed enthusiasm around creating a different mobile handset. Experiments with form factors and other design elements abound, and for the first time in a long time, the smartphone market became an exciting, dynamic space to watch again.
The Future Unfolds
Ever since Samsung unveiled the Galaxy Fold last week, there was little doubt that foldable phones will the most exciting thing to see and bend at this MWC. Intriguingly, however, the Galaxy Fold was a no-show in Barcelona this year, as Samsung chose to highlight the other flagship Galaxy models instead. Latest reports have indicated that Samsung expects Galaxy Fold supply to be limited, hinting at a luxury-oriented launch, which is hardly surprising given its starting price of nearly $2000.
Beyond the Galaxy Fold, Huawei also unveiled their take on the foldable concept with Mate X, which intriguingly skews Samsung’s inward folding design for a flexible screen folds outwards. For the leading Chinese smartphone brand, Mate X is a significant milestone that demonstrated Huawei’s ability to lead on design instead of merely copying and iterating on existing form factors. Although it is hard to see Mate X gaining much traction in the mass market with a $2600 price tag, the halo effect Mate X created for Huawei will no doubt further help the Chinese phone maker to compete in global markets, especially in Europe where it already accounted for over 23% of the overall market in the last quarter.
In addition, TCL unveiled a set of foldable concept devices, but kept them behind a glass cover and offered no details in terms of pricing and release date. Oppo showed off a foldable prototype that looks very similar to Huawei’s Mate X. Xiaomi’s impressive demo video of its foldable concept remained just a video. And LG went for an alternative design for its new V50 flagship model, which achieves the goal of foldable phones (a bigger display without reducing portability) by attaching a folio case with a second OLED screen in it. Legacy phone maker Motorola also announced it will start selling its first foldable phone, rumored to be an update of the classic Razr phone, later this summer.
Looking past the buzz, it is easy to see that none of these foldable devices is going to take off in a substantial way. The sky-high pricing is a huge adoption barrier, but the value proposition could be an even bigger hurdle. While the foldable form will likely be a strong draw for attention and inspire some copycats, this novelty factor would wane sooner or later if the user experience can not deliver more value than a regular, non-foldable phone can today. So instead of being a smartphone that can unfold into something more, they feel more like a small tablet that can fold in half in order to fit into your pocket.
Nevertheless, as the future of mobile unfolds, it is quite exciting to see smartphone makers breaking out of the slim slate form factor and experimenting in vastly different form factor designs in this first draft of foldable phones. No matter where you stand on foldable phones today, it is important to remember that this is but the first draft for a new concept. The foldable phones are here, but it is still too early to tell if they will be the next big thing in mobile, or another Amazon Fire Phone.
Goodbye to the Notch
Since Apple unleashed the infamous notch onto the world with the release of iPhone X, the Android phone makers first laughed at it for a short while before jumping on the bandwagon and making the notch a ubiquitous feature among new flagship phones released in 2018. The notch exists because the front-facing cameras are getting increasingly sophisticated in order to support better selfies and facial recognition features like Face ID, and their growing sizes clash with the industry-wide design trend of edge-to-edge screens. Therefore, the notch is a compromise, not a bug. But as the smartphone makers demonstrated in Barcelona this week, there are other creative ways to solve this dilemma.
So far, there are three popular solutions to get rid of the front notch. First, brands like Samsung and Huawei are experimenting with a so-called “punch hole” design, which places the front camera at one of the upper corners of the screen, trading symmetry for more space for display. Second, there is the pop-up camera approach, which hides the front camera inside the phone and only pops up atop of the phone when it is needed. Led by Chinese phone makers Vivo and Oppo, this design achieves a complete edge-to-edge display at the expense of durability and thinness. Lastly, Samsung is reportedly working on an under-the-display front camera that will eliminate the notch completely, although no such design was shown at this year’s MWC. China’s Meizu is also working on a similar concept that aims to put the front camera under the screen.
All these various front camera placements may seem rather frivolous in terms of the mobile user experience, it is nevertheless an interesting issue for the smartphone makers to tackle. With edge-to-edge display sweeping the entire mobile market, the placement of the front cameras is quickly becoming the only visible differentiator in the front, as far as hardware design goes. The Android market has, by and large, followed Apple’s industry-leading design for years, but at this MWC, they collectively showed a sense of innovation and determination to make their products distinct again.
Faster, Cooler, Longer
Beyond foldable phones and revamped camera designs, 5G phones are also prominently featured at this week’s MWC. Never mind that the real 5G won’t be available for most consumers for at least another year, the manufacturers wasted no time to introduce their 5G-ready handsets to the world. Leading brands like Huawei, LG, Samsung, Xiaomi, and ZTE all introduced their own 5G phones with intentionally vague release dates, while Sony, Oppo, and OnePlus had earlier prototype devices on display.
While 5G connectivity is the one emerging value driver that will likely spur the next super upgrade cycle for smartphones, it is uncertain how long the upgrade cycle will be stretched out. Looking past the 5G buzz at MWC, roll-out schedule from mobile carriers vary from city to city, with no consensus of nationwide coverage anytime soon. That combined with forbiddingly high prices of 5G-ready devices will likely dampen adoption rate of 5G phones before the infrastructure matures.
Nevertheless, the speed boost granted by 5G will no doubt unlock new opportunities in digital media and consumer technology. As we explained in our Marketer’s Guide to 5G, 4K or even 8K streaming, live or not, will be the new standard resolution for online videos, and the possibilities to beam high-quality AR and VR content to smartphones or mobile-powered headsets forecast potential shake-up in entertainment and media.
In addition, LG’s first 5G smartphone will come with a unique feature under the hood: a vapor chamber to prevent overheating, a potential concern for 5G mobile devices that is currently somewhat overlooked. The announcement came months after Sprint announced their partnership with LG to bring the first 5G phone to their 5G network, which is set to launch in May.
Beyond 5G phones, there are also other noteworthy handsets on display showcasing new form factors. For example, leading battery brand Energizer teamed up with French telecom company Avenir to create the Energizer PowerMax P18K Pop, an attention-grabbing brick of a smartphone with an 18,000mAh battery. While it might be way too thick for day-to-day use, it could possibly find a niche audience who, for whatever reason, are in the market for a super durable phone that can last up to 50 days on one full charge.
Mobile In Flux
Looking at the big picture, this year’s Mobile World Congress revealed a reignited trend of form factor experimentations among major smartphone manufacturers motivated by a sense of urgency and opportunity. Foldable phones and 5G emerged as the primary future value drivers for the manufacturers, but questions remain as to if they will be embraced by the consumer, or how long it will take for either of those two types of devices to achieve critical mass in terms of user adoption. Will they be enough to spur another adoption cycle for mobile? The jury is still out.
At the center of all this is a clear Apple-shaped hole. Staying true to its M.O., the iPhone company did not have an official presence at the MWC. Nevertheless, one can’t help but wonder how the Cupertino company feels about foldable and 5G-ready phones. Online scuttlebutt has it that Apple won’t be ready to launch a 5G-ready iPhone until 2020. And while there has been no report about a foldable iPhone (yet), if there’s any smartphone maker that can nail the hardware-software integration that is crucial to creating an optimal user experience for a foldable mobile device, it’d be Apple.
Media coverage of this year’s MWC has worked to establish a narrative that Apple is dangerously behind other companies in releasing support for 5G mobile networks and the foldable screens, not to mention ditching the “annoying” notch for a better place to put the front-facing cameras. Yet, history shows that announcements at MWC typically don’t mean all that much. Without Apple getting on board, the Android vendors alone are typically unable to move the needle in changing consumer expectations and generating demand in the higher end of the smartphone market.
Thus, 2019 will no doubt be a very interesting year to watch for the mobile space. Foldable phones and 5G phones will likely be embraced by wealthy early adopters and tech enthusiasts, but overall the smartphone market will be in flux, as rising Chinese vendors racing to beat market leaders Apple and Samsung to the punch by throwing various ideas at the proverbial wall and see what sticks. The U.S.-led sanction on Huawei may give the incumbents a bit of room to catch up in the domestic market, but the battle has commenced in international markets.
One way or another, the mobile 2.0 era will be soon upon us, is your brand ready for the next chapter in the evolution of media consumption and consumer behavior that is sure to follow?
