Everything We Expect to See at Apple’s 2018 Fall Event
From three new iPhones, bigger Apple Watch, to perhaps an Apple News subscription, we count down everything we expect (and hope) to see at next week’s Apple event.
Update 09/13: You can now read our recap of what was actually announced at the event here.
Last week, Apple sent out invites to its annual fall event where it unveils new hardware products. This year’s event will kick off next Wednesday on September 12 and is expected to showcase the follow-up to last year’s iPhone X, among other updates to Apple’s product line. Here is a round-up of everything we know so far about what Apple is planning to announce, and also what Apple may have in store in the near future based on recent news reports.
iPhone XS Models Continue to Normalize the $1,000 Phone
Apple is expected to be introducing three new iPhones next week. Last Thursday, 9to5Mac scored an exclusive shot of the successor to the iPhone X and confirmed it will be named iPhone XS. The leaked image shows the device comes in two screen sizes: 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch, as well as with a new option of gold-colored back with black front. There will also be a 6.1-inch lower-cost LCD model, presumably named iPhone 9. All three will feature Face ID, wireless charging, and edge-to-edge displays while eliminating the front-facing home buttons and thus Touch ID.
Elsewhere, a Bloomberg report says that Apple is focusing on speed and camera upgrades as the primary improvements this year, which fits the general consensus that this is an improvement-oriented update in the iPhone release cycle. There is also rumbling that Apple may be planning to bring Apple Pencil support to the bigger iPhone XS model, further blurring the line between large-screen iPhones and iPad mini.
When Apple announced the $999 iPhone X last year, many thought it was too high a price for an iPhone. In April, an allegedly leaked note from an Apple analyst claimed that the iPhone X will not see another model. In less than a year, however, the $1,000 phone has become entirely normal. Most recently, the Samsung Galaxy Note 9 joined the iPhone X, the Note 8, the Oppo Find X, and others in the $1,000 phone club.
iPhone X is also pushing up the average selling price of iPhones, which of course contributes greatly to Apple’s bottom line. With two new “S-cycle” minor updates on the way, it seems like the iPhone X brand is stronger than ever. Survey data of iPhone X users from Techpinions shows most iPhone X users are very satisfied with the device and suggests that the overall combined portfolio Apple will have by the end of the September event will be the strongest yet. As the price tags for premium phones continue to rise, it says a lot about the increasing value that we get out of our mobile devices every day.
Resigned Apple Watch to Usher Smartwatches into Mainstream
Another almost-certain announcement from Apple is the next-gen Apple Watch. Along with the iPhone XS leak, 9to5Mac also managed to obtain a marketing image of Apple Watch Series 4, which sports a redesigned watch face with thinner bezels. This new model takes advantage of the bigger display to make room for 9 complications (showing stats such as weather and step counts) in addition to the time of day. More complications would allow users to pick more apps for one-tap access and e for at-a-glance updates right from the watch face, thus boosting the usefulness of the device.
Additionally, Apple is also reportedly developing chips for processing health data on new fitness sensors. Reliable supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that the new Watch will include new sensors for enhanced biometric tracking. As we noted in our recap of Apple’s WWDC event in June, the upcoming features in watchOS 5 — including interactive notifications, a walkie-talkie mode, and better fitness tracking — will further move Apple Watch towards becoming a full-fledged standalone device.
Highly specialized features like this are what set Apple Watch apart from other wristbands, and sales numbers have clearly shown which product consumers prefer. According to the latest data from IDC, Apple sold 4.7 million Watches last quarter, representing 17% of the global wearable market. Xiaomi came in second with 500k units sold while the final three of the top five (Fitbit, Huawei, and Garmin) trailed far behind. IDC analysts point out that shipments of more basic-function wearables have declined over the past several quarters.
Series 4 looks like it will mark the first significant design change for Apple Watch in term of its form factor, which could be a big draw for the existing Apple Watch users to upgrade while attracting new buyers, especially those that are already in Apple’s ecosystem. For the previous Watch updates, Apple has been focused primarily on adding key components and rounding out functions with GPS for Series 2 and standalone cellular connectivity for Series 3 last year. The inclusion of cellular connectivity helped propel Apple to the top of the wearables market in the first quarter of 2018, cementing Apple’s lead on the wearable market. We expect Series 4 to continue solidifying the lead and perhaps, bring smartwatches into the mainstream market.
New iPads and Macs In the Works
It has been common knowledge for a while that some new iPad Pros are in Apple’s pipeline. It is highly likely that the new 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pro with TrueDepth front cameras and Face ID will launch by the end of the year, but it is not certain whether they will be announced as a part of next week’s event or be pushed to a separate event in October as Apple had done for some previous iPad releases. After all, it’s hard to imagine Apple would cram updates to all four primary product categories into one single event, especially considering the time that three new iPhone models and a redesigned Apple Watch will likely take up.
The same is true for the Mac. Considering that Apple just updated the MacBook Pro line with faster performance and new features in July, the new updates to the Mac line will likely be focused on the MacBook and perhaps Mac Mini. Bloomberg cites sources that claim Apple is working on a new low-cost MacBook, presumably to replace the MacBook Air lineup, as well as a more powerful Mac Mini geared towards pro users. It remains unclear whether we will see either of these updates at next week’s event, even those both lineups are overdue for upgrades.
In addition to the standard product categories, we also expect Apple to allocate a few minutes to AirPower, Apple’s wireless charging pad. The product has been repeatedly delayed for shipping since its initial announcement last September, and it would make perfect sense to finally launch it alongside the new iPhones and Apple Watch, all supporting wireless charging.
New AirPods to Boost Siri Usage
Apple first introduced AirPods (Apple’s wireless bluetooth earbuds, not to be confused with AirPorts, which are WiFi routers) in 2016 alongside the headphone jack-less iPhone 7. The initial reviews range from lukewarm to skeptical to downright scathing, and analysts doubted its market appeal given its perceived high pricing. Fast Forward two years, however, it appears that AirPods have become a sleeper hit. AirPods remain backordered on Apple’s online store, with orders placed today estimated for delivery within 12 to 13 days in the United States and several other markets. Barclays forecasts that AirPods shipments will likely approach 30 million units in 2018.
It is confirmed that Apple will soon release a wireless charging case for AirPods to be used with its upcoming AirPower charging mat. In February, Bloomberg reported that Apple is working on a new AirPods with hands-free “Hey Siri” functionality, which could be released as early as this year. A subsequent pair with water resistance is said to be planned for next year. Given the reported timeline, it seems likely that we will see updated AirPods next week, which would further boost the sales and convert more iPhone users to wireless earbuds. Given the upcoming Shortcuts feature, a pair of AirPods capable of evoking Siri solely by voice would likely give Siri a nice boost by removing friction.
We know Apple is actively working to enhance Siri’s capability to catch up with rival voice assistants. The company hired John Giannandrea, Google’s chief of search and artificial intelligence, primarily in a bid to improve Siri. Apple will likely demo some new Siri Shortcut use cases on stage next week. Announced at the WWDC event in June, Siri Shortcuts promise to significantly increase the accessibility and functionality of Siri, allowing it to intelligently serve up relevant information and actions from various apps based on user preferences and context. This would be a good feature to demo with Apple Watch and, perhaps, HomePod, which likely won’t receive an update just yet give it first shipped in February.
In the long run, growing adoption of hearable devices like AirPods will no doubt broaden the reach of voice assistants, According to data from Juniper Research, about 44 million hearable devices are in use by the end of 2017. About 66% of these are estimated to be embedded with AI-infused voice assistants, and that share is expected to reach 78% by 2022. If people are already leaving their AirPods on even when they are not on calls or listening to music, then an increasing install base of AirPods with easy Siri access would prove to be a winning channel for Apple’s digital assistant.
More Demos On Apple’s AR Ambition
Beyond the usual hardware suspects, be prepared to hear Apple talk more about their AR initiatives. Given that all three new iPhone models will feature the depth-sensing front camera system, it would be natural for Apple to show off ARKit 2.0 with some cool on-stage demos.
Last week, Apple acquired Akonia Holographics, a Colorado-based startup that specializes in making ‘vibrant’ lenses for AR glasses. This acquisition further confirms the ongoing speculation that Apple is working on a consumer-facing AR headset. Well-known Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates that Apple will be releasing its first AR glasses product in 2020. General consensus among Apple analysts is that the first AR glasses will likely start out as an iPhone accessory for AR experiences, before slowing develop into a standalone headset for immersive experience later on.
To prepare users for that AR future, which Tim Cook sees as “profound” and having “the ability to amplify human performance,” it would make sense for Apple to continue to put ARKit demos front and center when introducing new iPhones. As people upgrade their mobile phones, more and more handsets will be capable of delivering an engaging AR experience. Some early-adopting brands, such as Zara, Sony, and Coca-Cola, have successfully incorporated mobile AR into their campaigns to intrigue and delight consumers. And we expect to see more AR use cases continue to develop for the rest of the year and beyond.
Early Signs of An Apple Super Bundle?
Apple will likely devote some time during the keynote address to their growing subscription services such as Apple Music and iCloud storage plans. In its most recent earnings call, the Cupertino company mentioned that revenue from its services were up 31%, topping $9 billion in total. Lately, Apple has run some promotions for its services, including one that offers subscribers of Verizon’s unlimited plan a six-month free trial of Apple Music, as well as one that offers 2 free months of 200GB iCloud storage to new iCloud users in the U.S.
As Apple continues to grow its existing subscription services, it is also well positioned to launch some more. It’s been common knowledge within the industry that Apple is working on a video subscription service as it has scored some A-List stars and talents and signed some high-profile original series projects. So far, Apple has over two dozen TV shows and series in development, but it hasn’t officially announced anything on that yet. We may get a trailer or two next week as a teaser to Apple’s own video streaming service, which would most likely launch sometime next year.
In comparison, far more likely to make its debut next week would be a digital all-access subscription service for newspaper and magazine content. In March, Apple acquired digital magazine subscription service Texture, which gives Apple a solid foundation to build a news subscription service to bundle the existing a la carte subscriptions in the Apple News app into an all-you-can-read content buffet.
With its growing subscription service portfolio, Apple is nicely building up to a “super bundle” that could include all of its monthly content services (Apple Music, News, and TV shows) for a flat monthly fee. Taking it one step further, Apple could also include the iCloud storage services, AppleCare, and eventually, its iPhone Upgrade Program in this to create the ultimate software plus hardware bundle.
Granted, such a comprehensive bundle may sound a bit too far-fetched and difficult to pull off. But looking at the newly launched Xbox All Access program from Microsoft as an early example, it does look like the market may be ready for a bundle like this. For Microsoft, the two-tiered Xbox All Access program, whose monthly fee covers both leasing an Xbox gaming console and two different digital passes to access various game titles, is a daring play for the casual console players looking to enter the Xbox ecosystem while ensuring the loyalty of hardcore Xbox gamers. The fact that it is only available in Microsoft Stores, of which there aren’t many, only for a limited time (through December 31 or while supplies last), and even the financing is handled by a third party points to the experimental nature of the program.
Apple, by comparison, is much better positioned to execute an all-access subscription bundle like this. It has a deal with Citizens Bank to handle the financials of its iPhone Upgrade Program, and has made signing up easy and quick either in-store, on the web, or through the Apple Store app. Besides, Apple’s unique advantage in hardware-software integration could really help a super bundle like this more appealing and further enhance the overall iPhone experience.
That being said, it is unlikely that we will hear any announcement regarding such a bundling play from Apple until its video service launches. Given the highly differentiated nature of content, it would serve as a major driver of user acquisition for Apple’s subscription service bundle. And until Apple is ready to launch its video streaming service, we will have to wait and see what Apple does with its existing services.
Update 09/13: You can now read our recap of what was actually announced at the event here.
