Ten Questions on Tech & Innovation for 2023
Highlighting key aspects of digital media and innovations to which we hope 2023 will bring answers
After a year of great uncertainty and tentative hope, we are closing out 2022 the way we always do — by recapping the biggest trends that played out over the past 12 months, and by looking ahead to what 2023 may bring.
In a broad sense, 2022 felt like a year of subtle endings. The end of Big Tech’s mad-dash run of unbridled growth over the past two decades seems imminent, with widespread lay-offs and dried-up VC funds already hitting the tech sector in recent months. The crypto boom that fueled much of the web3 mania got a sobering reality check this year, which began with the market collapse in the spring and deepened with the implosion of FTX in the fall. Even the continuing push by major social platforms to diversify their revenue streams, especially via social commerce, ended up losing steam as the year wore on.
Yet, every ending brings new beginnings. To keep pace with the direction in which the overall digital media and innovation landscape is evolving, we look to the following ten questions to ground our observations and bring clarity in 2023:
1. Will crypto recover some lost ground or keep crashing?
There is no doubt that “crypto-winter” is here; the question is, how long will it last? Given the current trajectory of the crypto space and the reputational hits it has suffered, it seems highly unlikely for crypto to turn things around swiftly over the next 12 months to mount a full-scale comeback. That said, there is still a sizable community of crypto owners and DeFi advocates out there, so there is a floor to crypto’s diminishing market value overall. Of course, the macro-economic context will also need to be considered, given the huge impact it has on people’s spending and investment behaviors.
My prediction: It will stablize but won’t bounce back fully any time soon.
2. Will Apple announce or release its mixed-reality headset device?
The post-mobile paradigm may be soon upon us. Apple’s long-rumored and highly-anticipated mixed-reality headset is supposedly aiming for a late 2023 launch, per the latest reports. But those speculative reports have been wrong before, and Apple could end up pushing back the mixed-reality headset due to a variety of production and supply chain issues. Yet, even if Apple ends up needing a few more months to get the device ready, there is a good chance that we may get a sneak peek at the 2023 WWDC event in June, as Apple unveils the headset to allow developers and brands to get a head-start on creating immersive experiences for it.
My prediction: Yep, we’ll likely get to see what it looks like, if not actually be able to buy one.
3. Will Apple allow third-party app stores in the U.S.?
Besides launching its headset and hoping for another “iPhone moment,” Apple will also fight to keep its stronghold on the mobile economy. Apple’s restrictions around the App Store have been attacked by rivals and detractors in anti-trust complaints and lawsuits over the last two years. Now that the EU legislators are essentially forcing Apple to allow third-party app stores and sideloading on iPhones and iPads in the EU markets, it will be interesting to see how long Apple can stall before opening up the floodgate for U.S. users as well. Perhaps it won’t happen in 2023, but it will happen sooner or later.
Should third-party app stores become a reality, one could easily see the potential chaos and resulting damages to the overall user experience that this move might bring, but expect companies like Meta and Amazon to jump on the opportunity to launch their own app stores to bypass Apple’s 30% commission.
My prediction: Yes, but perhaps not in 2023, especially if the tests of third-party app stores in the EU were to go badly.
4. Will Google be able to keep up with the change in search habits?
The way people search online, especially how younger consumers search, has started to shift, and Google, with a whole digital empire built on the back of its search ad revenue, will feel the pressure to keep up. It’s not just that nearly 40% of Gen Z say they prefer searching on TikTok and Instagram over using Google search or Google Maps, but it will also have to reckon with the imminent rise of advanced AI chatbots like ChatGPT that can directly provide detailed answers to complex questions in a conversational manner. Who would want to type into some keywords and look through a dozen blue links if you can simply ask for the answers?
Knowing Google and how advanced they are in their AI research capability, however, it would not surprise me if Google would test a way to incorporate similar chatbot features into Google search in 2023. After all, Google will have to change its search products to fit how people search in order to protect its search ad revenue.
My prediction: Most likely yes on the AI front, but less so on the social search front.
5. Will Amazon — or anyone — finally crack the code on live commerce in the U.S.?
Live commerce has been going strong in China for years, and many have attempted to bring these types of engaging shopping formats into the U.S. markets. Both TikTok and Instagram are well-positioned to make a big push on live commerce in 2022, but for one reason or another, nothing major materialized outside a few high-profile tests with retail partners like Walmart. In September, Instagram’s shuttering of Shop features belied Meta’s lack of convictions in social commerce, especially live social commerce. TikTok also reportedly pulled back on live commerce initiatives it planned for the U.S. after tests in European markets didn’t match up to expectations.
Meanwhile, Amazon Live is still languishing in obscurity, confined to its own corner of the Amazon.com empire, for the ecommerce giant still lacks the social feeds required to boost the discoverability of those shoppable live streams. It will be interesting to see if smaller platforms like Twitter and Snapchat can figure out a way to crack the code.
My prediction: Your guess is as good as mine.
6. What new features will Instagram copy from other rising social media apps?
The Facebook-dominated social media era is clearly waning, as Meta turns its attention to the metaverse while its social platforms continue to lose audience attention to both TikTok, and a variety of alternative social media like BeReal and Gas that cater to a growing demand for more authentic connections with your own real-life social circles over algorithmically suggested content made by a complete stranger. To fight off the newcomers, Instagram not only went heavy on Reels, its TikTok-like short video format, it has also copied BeReal’s format and, more recently, added a Notes feature to allow people to display a short status update a la Whatsapp. In 2023, it may be fun to count how many new features Instagram can stuff into its already-bloated app to stay relevant, before it inevitably imposes on itself.
My prediction: Whatever becomes popular enough.
7. Will Elon Musk run Twitter into the ground?
Speaking of implosion, it seems clear by now that Elon Musk has no real plan on how to run Twitter, and he is clearly in over his head. The previously richest man on earth has reportedly sold $23 billion of his Tesla stock to fund his Twitter takeover, but even a pocket that deep has its bottom. With new content moderation laws brewing in some states, the challenge of running a digital town square is only going to increase. Will Elon miraculously turn things around in 2023, or will he run the bird app into the ground? I have a hunch that we won’t need to wait too long to find out.
My prediction: Yes, only a matter of time. And it might be for the best.
8. Will Meta be able to drum up mainstream consumer interest for Horizon Worlds?
Compared to the beginning of 2022, the metaverse hype may have lost some of its shine by now. Yet, Meta’s big bet on VR headsets and Horizon Worlds, its virtual world platform will likely persist. Whether mainstream consumers would choose to embrace Meta’s metaverse pitch, however, will depend heavily on the use cases that Horizon Worlds can deliver. There is no reason to get into a 3D environment just to do things originally designed to be done with a 2D monitor. If Meta wants more people to join Horizon Worlds, it will need to deliver a lot more than Microsoft apps and movie trailers.
My prediction: They sure hope so!
9. Will Roblox’s ad platform deliver the Gen Z audience to brands?
In recent years, Roblox has emerged as a popular gaming platform for Gen Z. Capitalizing on the metaverse hype in 2022, Roblox launched its own ad platform in September to provide brands with easy solutions to reach the 260 million monthly active users on its platform. Roblox’s ad formats are designed to be immersive and interactive, which can help to engage users and increase the chances of a successful campaign.
However, it’s worth noting that the effectiveness of any ad campaign depends on a number of factors, including the relevance of the ad to the target audience and the overall quality of the ad itself. A well-placed digital billboard in Roblox may get people to visit your branded experiences for a while, but if the in-game experience you offer is not compelling enough, or if it requires the players to leave the game to go to a third-party site, then your brand is using Roblox wrong.
My prediction: Yes, but how effective that Roblox ad is depends on how metaverse-ready brands are.
10. What new use cases will AI-powered creative tools unlock?
Finally, let’s wrap up this list of apprehensive questions with a positive spin on perhaps one of the most disruptive emergent technologies we’re seen in a while — Synthetic media content generated by AI-powered text-to-image or -video, or text-based answers from advanced chatbots like ChatGPT, is about to forever alter the process of content creation and upend the booming creator economy in the process. A New York Times article on students using ChatGPT to cheat on their homework and tests is already generating quite a lot of chatter. Expect a national debate on AI-assisted tools in education and, by extension, the arts.
As it is, AI can assist with tasks such as writing and editing, helping users to generate high-quality content more efficiently. For marketers, this could mean an incredible boon to dynamic creative, which can soon be supercharged to deliver hyper-personalized ad creatives to each individual consumer. But, that is clearly the low-hanging fruit — the real use cases born out of synthetic media might just surprise all of us, for better and for worse.
My prediction: What if I told you this entire article was written by an AI? (It’s not… yet)
