The paralysis of potentiality

Why we should still care about “the perfect storm” — and the challenge of creating a sense agency in times of radical uncertainty

“How do men act in a sinking ship? Do they hold each other? Do they pass around the whisky? Do they cry?” (Junger, 1992:3)

It has been a while since we talked about the notion of a “perfect storm” (a very fashionable phrase among the innovation community some years back) — all though the world of late seemed to offer all the ingredients of such a metaphor, given a global risk landscape characterized by a “perfect” mix of climate emergency, pandemics, migration crises, social inequity, disinformation, demographic changes, declining democratic institutions, and political and cultural lacks of belonging.

The perfect storm metaphor gained its prominence via the bestseller novel (and later blockbuster film) ‘The Perfect Storm’ (Junger, 1997) based on the true story of the struggle of the fishing boat ‘Andrea Gail’ and her crew of six people in the midst of the storm. The plot is the traditional story of the battle between the fisherman and the sea, between man and nature. The storm was throughout the story portrayed as the brutal and uncontrollable force of nature, creating disempowering circumstances, putting human agency and courage to the test.

Changing the story

In 2021, perhaps more than ever, governments, institutions and businesses were acting within conditions where we had little or no frame of reference or a template on how to address them. At the same time, most of the solutions and governance mechanisms developed neither fit the nature nor scale of addressing the cross-cutting challenges we are facing.

Considering the real-world story of the fishing boat in the perfect storm, it puts forward some interesting parallels. Firstly, the crew did not realize the severity of the situation before it was too late. Secondly, their presence in the midst of the storm in the first place can be seen as an act of foolish greediness driven by the pursuit of prize money through a significant catch of fish (i.e. financial benefit over sustainability).

Thirdly, and this may hopefully still be something to be influenced in our global situation, everyone on the fishing boat, despite their tremendous efforts and struggle to survive, are actually killed in the storm.

When used as a risk landscape characteristic though, the storm is not over. Our fishing boat is still at sea and our story remains incomplete. The crew of the fishing boat (and the perfect storm) should be remembered in orientation towards the future. The implicit question is: ‘this is how the story goes’ — how do you hope to change it?’

Paralyzing potentiality

As a social anthropologist, I am always interested in what our current understanding of the present is socially producing: what responses are developed, legitimized and supported? And how are people ready and able to act to make them happen?

The perfect storm reminds us of an immediate crisis, but equally of an immediate potentiality. What we are seeing is a great level of confidence in our potential capability to fight the circumstances and disasters that we are facing, assuming that we apply ourselves in the right way. In this sense, we should be committed to a view of the present (which the perfect storm metaphor should help us achieve), not as an apocalyptic event and an ‘end of time’, but as ‘the end of a time’. We assume a future that holds more for us than a heroic death.

This is the issue though: that we assume rather than imagine. It looks like a blind belief in our collective ability to sort things out. Which tends to lead to patient inaction as we wait for someone to come up with the perfect technological solution, not creative and active mobilization and deployment of our creative capabilities. More often than not, we seem to get stuck in a sense of paralyzing potentiality.

Sense of urgency and agency

This could be a natural outcome of living in radical uncertainty and complexity. We all are striving for a sense of agency in the current chaosmos (to use Umberto Eco’s phrase) we experience. We need to accept life situated in a permanent state of uncertainty, instability, and turbulence while recognizing that our response to these have to come through continuous, multiple and diverse sets of creative experimentation.

When mobilising metaphors such as the perfect storm metaphor works well, they 1) seed doubt, 2) destabilize understanding of the present reality, 3) install a hope for the ‘not-yet’ (as Ernest Bloch would phrase it), and 4) creates space for new beginnings. In this case, the metaphor requires more than a one-off response, but it should establish an inflection point setting out a new existential trajectory.

It needs to set out radically new standards for decision makers and institutions in developing cohesive answers and responses. It should create real commitment to and investment in deeply transformational priorities and actions supported by a new kind of institutional resilience: continuous and creative renewal capabilities that ensure ambitious reframing and repurposing of our systems and policy interventions.

The challenge in the midst of this perfect storm is thus not only to survive with the right seafaring knowledge in a boat already suffering from previous bad priorities, but also doing so while embracing a new way of understanding the craft and practice of seafaring all together. Perhaps a great sense of agency (and urgency) comes through constructively abandoning the hope to ever reach calmer waters. Let’s be properly present to act on creating our desired future rather than getting stuck in its assumed potential.

This blog series builds on the Ph.D. thesis “The Irreality of public innovation” written by Dr. Jesper Christiansen, Executive Director at States of Change. Read the thesis here.