Introduction
What were you doing when you heard that Trump won?
Every once in a long while, an event occurs that is so momentous that, decades later, everyone remembers where they were and what they were doing when it happened. We know immediately that what just happened is truly historical, and that the world will never be the same again. In my generation, it was 9–11. In a previous generation, it was the JFK assassination.
It’s been eight months, but I still remember it like yesterday.
On that November 8th, I met Toby Mundy, my literary agent, for lunch in Oslo. The polls in the US hadn’t opened yet. The world seemed orderly, and Hillary was a clear favorite to win. I would soon board a long flight, headed towards Kuala Lumpur.
Twenty hours later, I was fidgeting with my phone while waiting for my turn at the passport control at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. As soon as I connect to the airport’s Wi-Fi, a flurry of messages streamed in. I sent a message to Ahmed Gatnash, my co-writer. “Just landed”. Ahmed responded with a curt but ominous: “Check the news out”.
Ahmed’s next message predicted our dilemma. “So. Now what?”
Ahmed & I are Islamic libertarians. A few months earlier, we had proposed a 16-month project titled “Islam & Liberty” — a series of articles and events — to Norway’s Fritt Ord Foundation. Our stated mission is to present a Muslim case for liberty, and to counter illiberalism, authoritarianism, and radicalization in the Arab & Muslim worlds. The project was offered a home at Civita, Norway’s liberal think tank.
It was still sinking in, but it was already clear that the context in which our work is to be done, from here on, has changed. We’re now in the unenviable position of talking about Islam and Liberty in a global context of resurgent authoritarianism.
The world’s most stable liberal democracy is now led by a right wing extremist, who campaigned and won on an openly illiberal agenda.
The world’s prime superpower will be led by an openly illiberal team for the next four (or eight) years. His presidency will energize and normalize illiberalism worldwide — be it of the same strand that he represents (figures like Putin and the European far-right), or the opposite extreme (organizations such as ISIS, who were quick to welcome his victory).
We had to take a step back and reassess. This project just became more important, and deserves to be told in context.
Why is authoritarianism rising globally? As it happens, we’ve been studying this — and warning against monocausal explanations of it — for years.
Here’s the story, in seven trends:
#1 The Triumph of Globalization
#2 The Loss of Anchors
#3 Economic Transformation
#4 Obsolete Nationalism
#5 Political Failure
#6 Social Media Broke our Public Sphere
#7 The Unravelling of the Middle-East
Conclusion: The Trump Effect
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