2018 Midterm Election Forecast

Polling for the midterm elections continues to heat up as we get closer to Election Day. Below is a snapshot of election polls in competitive races released between October 20th and October 26th, 2018*

The midterm elections are in 11 days and we had a large number of Senate race polls come out over the last week — especially in Florida. We still see some very close contests amidst a collection of clear leads for each party.

Most polls out of Florida give the incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson a lead ranging from 1 to 9 points, but a couple polls give his Republican challenger, Gov. Scott a slim lead.

Polling out of Nevada, Arizona and Texas continue to bolster the odds that Republicans can hold onto these seats and deny Democrats a pick-up opportunity. Republicans have set their sights on Indiana, Montana, and West Virginia since these are states that Trump won in 2016 with Democratic incumbents. The latest out of West Virginia and Montana appears to show that Democrats may hold on here, but the latest out of Indiana indicate this race may be a toss-up.

And new polls out of New Jersey and Michigan appear to show closer races for these Democratic seats than what they were hoping for. Lastly, the little polling that has been done out of North Dakota appears to show Republicans picking up a seat, especially if the latest poll out this week is an indication of what is to come.

Unlike the multitude of polls out of Florida this week, there has been only one poll released this entire election cycle for the special election to fill the Senate seat of Thad Cochran in Mississippi. At this time no candidate clears 50% to avoid a run-off election in late November. If there ends up a run-off, which seems likely at this point, and the control of the Senate is at stake, national attention will turn to Mississippi.

Polling out of Georgia has consistently shown a tight contest in the Governor’s race. With our first poll this cycle out of South Dakota, the Governor’s race there also appears to be up for grabs where we may see the first female Governor or first Democratic Governor in more than 40 years in the state. With the number of polls out of Florida this week, we continue to see most polls putting Gillum (D) ahead. Polling out of Michigan may indicate the race for Governor there is tightening and a new poll out of Wisconsin may show the incumbent Republican headed for defeat.

* Polls are typically released publicly within a few days to a week after being fielded.

Key:

(i) = incumbent

LV = Likely Voters

RV = Registered Voters

IVR = Interactive Voice Response, a completed automated poll in which the live interviewers are replaced with recorded prompts, and respondents give answers by speaking to the computer or pressing a key with their choice. This methodology can only call landlines.

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Edited by Jillian Nystedt