2018 Midterm Election Forecast

Polling for the midterm elections from multiple sources each week as we get closer to Election Day.

Below is a snapshot of election polls in competitive races released between October 15th and October 19th, 2018*

We are less than three weeks outside of Election Day and several Senate races appear to be hotly contested, most notably in Florida, Nevada and Tennessee. Polling out of Florida and Tennessee this week has one poll with the Republican ahead and one poll with the Democrat ahead in their respective races. The Senate race in Arizona is also shaping up to be close.

Democratic incumbents are holding on in Indiana and West Virginia even though Republicans have set their sights on picking up these seats. O’Rourke (D) hasn’t been able to overtake Cruz (R) in the polls out of Texas, despite the massive fundraising haul by O’Rourke (D). Similarly, Menendez (D) has kept a respectable lead in the polls out of New Jersey, but the Senate Democrats’ election fund has just dumped $3 million into the state for TV ads suggesting party leaders may be worried about this race.

Other polls out this week show several Democratic incumbents with decent leads in their respective races: Cardin +28 in Maryland, Gillibrand +25 in New York, Casey +15 in Pennsylvania, Cantwell +14 in Washington, Feinstein +14, +13, +13 in California.

Close Governor races are shaping out in the South and out West. Abrams (D) is neck and neck with Kemp (R) in the Georgia race for Governor while Gillum (D) has continued his advantage in the polls out of Florida. Laxalt (R) has opened up a small lead over Sisolak (D) in Nevada while Brown (D-i) looks to hold on in Oregon.

Republicans have held onto the 10th Congressional District in Virginia since 1980. But this district near Washington, DC, may be one of the first Republican held districts that Clinton carried in 2016 that turn blue in 2018.

* Polls are typically released publicly within a few days to a week after being fielded.

Key:

(i) = incumbent

LV = Likely Voters

RV = Registered Voters

IVR = Interactive Voice Response, a completed automated poll in which the live interviewers are replaced with recorded prompts, and respondents give answers by speaking to the computer or pressing a key with their choice. This methodology can only call landlines.

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Edited by Jillian Nystedt