Climate Spotlight 2022: Global climate trends, policies, events
Climate models show that 2022 is on track to likely be the fifth warmest year on record in most datasets. June recorded the warmest temperatures on record over the world’s land areas, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Heatwaves have swept across the northern hemisphere, impacting Europe and the UK, India, Pakistan, China and parts of the U.S.
Here is an overview of recent trends and policy actions and looks ahead to global climate diplomacy through the end of this year.
The war in Ukraine has generated price shocks that have reverberated through global energy markets. This is forcing new decision-making by governments and industry, with consequences for short and long-term impacts on carbon emissions. Australia, Britain, Canada and the U.S. have imposed outright bans on Russian oil purchases, while the EU is phasing down imports. But despite Western sanctions, Russian oil production and revenues remain strong with exports rerouted from European to Asian markets such as India and China.
The EU has done more to reduce its carbon emissions over the past three decades than any other region. Europe will continue its shift toward clean energy, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led Germany, Italy and other countries to urgently look for energy sources other than Russian gas ahead of this winter. The EU and its Member States will continue to strive towards a greater uptake of renewables (solar, wind and renewable hydrogen) and electrification, trying to decouple the economy from imported fossil energy. In the short term however, replacements for Russian imported gas will largely be fossil fuels imported from neighboring regions such as Norway or Northern Africa.
In the United States, after months of debate and stalemate Congress passed a $433 billion measure focused on climate and health spending. The climate spending is split into four categories: [1] subsidies and tax credits for individuals and households for electric vehicles and home energy improvements, [2] loans and guarantees to attract private investment in green technologies, [3] grants and tax credits for domestic manufacturing of green technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and strategic minerals, and [4] environmental justice projects targeted to disadvantaged communities and those harmed by legacy pollution. The Biden Administration’s attention will now turn to writing rules to implement the law. While the impact on reducing emissions will take years to materialize, environmental advocates are celebrating the largest federal commitment toward climate to date.
The United Kingdom’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, says the government is committed to its climate targets. Tackling high energy prices is at the top of the agenda for the new prime minister. But energy and climate issues are inevitably interconnected, so addressing one will likely impact the other.
India will finally submit official plans to cut emissions to the United Nations, as one of the world’s largest polluters backs away from a threat to withhold climate commitments until rich nations provide more funds for poorer countries. India will now try to bring down its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and work to source 50% of its installed power capacity from renewable energy resources by the end of the decade.
The Australian Parliament passed landmark climate laws that commit Australia to more ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This legislation will enshrine in law Australia’s commitment to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. It provides a framework to accelerate investments in renewable energy, transmission and storage. The law marked a first step on climate action since the Labor Party won power in May, defeating a conservative government that was seen as a global laggard on climate change.
Environmental advocates hope the outcome of Brazil’s national election in October will reverse worsening deforestation in the Amazon. Since President Bolsonaro came to power in 2019, Brazil has seen a dramatic increase in deforestation — up more than 50% compared to the previous three-year period — from organized criminal networks in the region. Former President Lula De Silva, who currently leads in polls, says he will seek to end net deforestation by 2025. But he will face the challenge of enforcing deforestation laws and will need help from Brazilian and multinational companies.
Cooperation between the United States and China on climate has been paused. China suspended bilateral climate talks in response to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visiting Taiwan. A protracted rift between the two countries could threaten discussions at the next round of global climate talks.
Africa accounts for only 7% of global greenhouse gases, but it is one of the regions most impacted by climate change. More than 400 million people lack access to safe drinking water. Climate change is impacting food production, poverty and biodiversity. Finance is an acute problem to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts. The African Development Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have said African countries need to mobilize $1.6 trillion within seven years to meet their Paris Climate Agreement pledges. African nations are conducting climate talks to identify their priorities and agree on a common position ahead of the UN climate summit in Egypt in November. Officials are expected to decide whether to ask developing nations for reparations for environmental damage in Africa, known in climate circles as “loss and damage.”
New natural gas production and infrastructure is being planned to replace Russian gas.
This includes new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities in Germany, Italy, Greece and the Netherlands, as well as a renewed push for interconnections to ensure the free flow of imported gas across the EU. Canada and the U.S. are fast tracking new LNG projects to increase exports. Qatar, Algeria and Egypt have signed deals with Germany and Italy.
To read our full climate brief, with implications for business, click here.
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Powell Tate is the Public Affairs Unit of the Weber Shandwick Collective. For more information, visit: www.powelltate.com
