Election 2024: Biden vs Trump, the Sequel No One Wants to See
February 12
Opinions expressed within this article are solely the author’s and do not represent the opinions and beliefs of The Weber Shandwick Collective.
Nikki Haley — remember her? — still has a puncher’s chance to prevent the worst sequel since Godfather III. But if she doesn’t grab the Republican presidential nomination from Donald Trump, in fewer than nine months the American people will re-elect him or Joe Biden in the election hardly anyone wants.
Here’s what I know about the outcome of the race, courtesy of Academy Award-winning screenwriter William Goldman: “Nobody knows anything.”
Want proof? Consider last week. Mr. Trump singlehandedly blew up a nascent bipartisan immigration bill to avoid giving Mr. Biden a legislative victory. Then, the House Republican leadership managed the unprecedented defeat of having the majority but still losing the vote to impeach Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
These two significant political defeats were erased within hours. On Thursday, a special prosecutor reported that Mr. Biden had mishandled classified documents after his vice presidential term ended. Criminal charges were not filed but could scarcely have been more damaging than the political injury the prosecutor added to legal insult by calling the President “a well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory.”
President Biden was carrying more baggage than Taylor Swift’s road show before the special prosecutor’s characterization. Republicans were already complaining he’s past his sell-by date, that he does too much taxing and spending and not enough to secure our Southern border or stand up to America’s enemies. And Republican opposition may be the lesser of President Biden’s problems.
Core Democratic constituencies — Black people, environmentally conscious people and young people — are accusing the President of not doing enough on their issues: race relations, gun control, the environment, among them; being too supportive of Israel and too restrictive on immigrants coming across our Southern border. Moderates are worried from the opposite angle: that the President is too aligned with the progressives and losing touch with swing voters. It’s all reminiscent of Will Rogers’ dictum that “I am not a member of any organized political party.”
For all that, however, the President has three advantages: the economy, the reproductive rights issue and Mr. Trump himself.
The expected recession hasn’t occurred. Economic growth is strong. Inflation is down. Employment is up. And even though many Americans are still feeling financial pain, consumer spending is holding up and consumer sentiment has been soaring of late — and will likely continue when the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates within the next few months.
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade before the 2022 midterms, initiatives to preserve reproductive rights drove voters to the polls and succeeded in every state where ballot initiatives were held, including red states like Kansas, Kentucky, Montana and Ohio. This year, the issue will be contested in a number of states, including Florida. Republicans don’t appear to be easing their restrictive pro-life policies, adding to the problem the party already has with women voters.
And then there’s Mr. Trump. Most Americans aren’t addicted to political news the way political junkies are. As they start tuning in to watch his demeanor, and the millions of dollars and millions of ads reminding them about his election denialism, his role on January 6, the 91 felony counts he faces, his promise of retribution for his enemies and maybe his conviction(s), voters will decide if they want to watch that sequel.
The carousel of controversies that arose last week will likely continue in the coming months, increasing Americans’ desire for an alternative to Biden-Trump II.
A recent News Nation poll said 59% of the public does not want another Biden-Trump brawl. As the public increasingly comes to grips with the election it does not want, the calls for a third-party ticket will increase.
If you squint hard enough, it’s possible to envision a third party defying history and winning a plurality of the vote. But unless last week’s events become the rule and not the exception, there’s not enough Visine in the world to see the ticket winning a majority of the Electoral College. (And if no candidate emerges with the majority, the race goes to the House of Representatives where Trump wins because Republicans control 28 of the 50 state delegations.)
So, as the clock ticks toward November 5, Mr. Biden’s supporters will wait anxiously and hope he doesn’t take a fall in public. Mr. Trump’s backers will be just as anxious, hoping he doesn’t take the fall in court. And two-thirds of us will be anxious about everything.
P.S. — In the late winter of 1968, the country was in turmoil. An unpopular Democrat was in the White House. A little-known member of Congress was challenging him for the nomination. An equally unpopular Republican was heading toward the Republican nomination. On March 16 that year, Robert F. Kennedy, Sr., declared his candidacy for president and everything changed. Just saying.
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Powell Tate is the Public Affairs Unit of the Weber Shandwick Collective. For more information, visit: www.powelltate.com
