Global Elections and Political Events to Watch in 2022
By James Meszaros
Several high-stakes national elections and political events will take place throughout 2022, with consequences for geopolitics and global business. Election outcomes could create market volatility, political and social unrest, fuel nationalism or populism, and upend economic, health, climate and technology policies across different countries.
Here are 10 events to watch:
SOUTH KOREA| Presidential election | March 9
Incumbent President Moon Jae-in is constitutionally barred from running again. His center-left Democratic Party has nominated Lee Jae-Myung, governor of the most populous province, Gyeonggi, to succeed him. The conservative opposition is former chief public prosecutor Yoon Seok-you, who is focused on corruption issues. Conservatives have a more hawkish view toward North Korea, while Democrats favor a more conciliatory approach.
HUNGARY | Parliamentary elections | April 3
In 12 years as Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán has transformed Hungary into a self-styled “illiberal democracy,” curtailing press freedom, eroding judicial independence and introducing socially restrictive measures. In previous elections, his opposition was divided. This time, six opposition parties have united behind a candidate, Péter Márki-Zay, a Catholic mayor promoting anti-corruption.
FRANCE | Presidential election | April 10 (1st round) April 24 (run-off)
President Emmanuel Macron is seeking a second five-year term. Two candidates will compete for the anti-EU, anti-immigrant vote: Marine Le Pen, who is striving to make her National Rally party more acceptable to voters, and former TV commentator Eric Zemmour. Another challenger will be Valérie Pécresse of the conservative Les Républicains party. Polls suggest she is likeliest to face Macron in a run-off — required if no candidate wins a majority in the first round. Legislative elections will be held in June.
COLOMBIA | Presidential elections | May 29
President Ivan Duque cannot run again. His Democratic Center party will field former finance minister Óscar Iván Zuluaga. Several candidates from the left and center are also seeking the presidency. Key issues: taxes, corruption, healthcare reform and the crisis in neighboring Venezuela. Parliamentary elections will be held in March.
AUSTRALIA | Parliamentary elections | Expected mid-May
Prime Minister Scott Morrison, a conservative, must call an election by September, but is expected to do so in the spring to combine elections for Australia’s Senate and House of Representatives. Morrison has moved Australia closer to the US and away from China. His two-party Liberal-National coalition trails in polls. The Labour Party’s leader is Anthony Albanese. Elements of his party want to engage more with China and follow US policy less. Campaign issues: COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine issues, and contentious climate policies.
KENYA | General election | August 9
President Uhuru Kenyatta cannot seek a third term. Despite a public falling out, his deputy, William Ruto, is the frontrunner to succeed him as party leader. He leads other candidates in recent polling. Kenya’s multiparty politics are divided on tribal sects rather than ideology. Ethnic violence has been a characteristic of past elections, creating a risky business environment. Key electoral issues are the high cost of living, unemployment, hunger, the COVID-19 pandemic and corruption.
BRAZIL | Presidential election | October 2
Former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva is set to be the candidate of the Workers Party. He leads in polling against incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, who critics say has undermined judicial independence, encroached indigenous land rights in the Amazon, attacked his critics and mismanaged the economy and COVID-19 response. Lula is promising moderation and stability. Brazil will clash over inflation, the voting system, fake news legislation and investigations against Bolsonaro to influence the election outcome. If Lula wins, Bolsonaro may contest the election result.
UNITED STATES | Midterm elections | November 8
The midterms elections will be focus of domestic politics throughout 2022, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake. The current outlook is for Republicans to retake the House with a small majority. The Senate remains too close to call. Several factors could influence the outcome in either direction, depending on how each party responds — the scope and scale of inflation and economic recovery, COVID-19 policies, a major foreign policy event, or culturally-divisive issues such as education, crime or immigration. The stakes for both parties are high. If Democrats lose one or both houses of Congress, President Biden’s agenda on spending, taxes, regulation, antitrust and climate will be impacted in 2023 and going into the 2024 presidential election. Beyond Congress, 20 Republican and 16 Democratic gubernatorial races will be contested.
Two other political events to watch:
CHINA | 20th National Congress | Autumn
President Xi Jinping will seek a third term and China could adopt new economic and security strategies that place restrictions on both domestic and foreign companies not seen as advancing China’s interests. Leading up to the Congress, Xi will look for China to host a successful Olympics, keep the economy on track and maintain China’s COVID Zero strategy.
UNITED KINGDOM
The next UK general election is not scheduled until 2024, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing criticism for attending parties during pandemic lockdowns and questions about his leadership. He could face a challenge if support for a “no confidence” vote grows among Conservative MPs; 54 MPs are needed to trigger a leadership challenge. If a “no confidence” challenge is initiated, the Prime Minister needs more than 50% of his members of parliament’s votes. If he secures it, there cannot be another “no confidence” vote for 12 months. If he does not reach that threshold, he is out and cannot contest it.
If the Prime Minister resigns or loses the “no confidence” vote, a Conservative Party leadership contest would begin, with a series of votes to determine who will be the next leader and prime minister.
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