Japan Prime Minister Wins Third and Final Term

Prime Ministers Abe’s legacy hangs on maintaining public support

Shinzo Abe was reelected as leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Sept. 20. His new term as the party leader will last until September 2021. The current Lower House’s term will not expire until October 2021, and even if Prime Minister Abe decides to hold a snap election before that expiration day, the LDP is likely to stay as the ruling party because the opposition parties are in disarray. Prime Minister Abe is likely to remain prime minister until September 2021.

During the recent campaign, Prime Minister Abe disclosed the following agenda as priorities for his third and final term as the PM:

• Constitutional Revision: Revise Article 9 to clearly state the existence of the Self Defense Forces
• Abenomics: Implement an exit strategy for the protracted monetary-easing policy
• Social security reform: Extend retirement age from 65 and start pensions from age 70
• Consumption Tax: Raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10% on October 1, 2019
• Foreign policy: Solve the Northern Territories issue with Russia and the abductees’ issue with the DPRK

Though the prime minister won the party leadership election, the result showed Prime Minister Abe is not as popular among the public as among his colleagues in the Diet. Because all of the missions Prime Minister Abe has promised to tackle will require political capital, his public standing could become a factor that hinders implementation of his more controversial agenda, such as regulatory/tax reform and constitutional revision. Successful elections reaffirm Japan’s support of the prime minister’s leadership, and there will be two more in 2019: nationwide local elections and the Upper House election. It is important for Prime Minister Abe that the LDP and its junior partner Komeito win these elections. LDP party rules limit the leader to three three-year terms, so this will be Prime Minister Abe’s last term. He is keen to tackle his difficult agenda, especially constitutional revision, to build his legacy.

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