Lula v. Bolsonaro: What to Expect from Both Governments
Brazil held the first round of Presidential Elections on October 2nd, and amidst a highly polarized electorate, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 48.43% of valid votes and President Jair Bolsonaro received 43.20%. The 2nd round is scheduled for October 30, when the President for next term will be determined. Here, we highlight some of the differences and similarities between the two candidates’ proposals.
Economic Approach
President Bolsonaro represents rightist ideals, led by a liberal view of the market. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, has created a center-left coalition that does not threaten liberal measures promoted by Bolsonaro nor intends to expand the liberalization process.
The Workers Party, of which Lula is a member, is focused on creating a strong state to support low-income families while assuring economic growth through investments in infrastructure and market interventions. By contrast, Bolsonaro supports a minimalist role in the economy, giving the Ministry of Economy complete autonomy to pursue his liberal ideal with less state intervention. This posture will probably continue, possibly expanding the privatization process.
Despite the differences in economic views between Lula and Bolsonaro, economists do not expect discrepancies to impact the economy. According to experts, both candidates are well known through past experience. Investors are pragmatic and say it does not matter if Lula or Bolsonaro is in office, the concern is with the economic model. The main evidence of this trend is the stock market’s steady performance just a few days before the election.
Environmental Agenda
Bolsonaro has promoted responsible Amazon rainforest exploitation, but the lack of surveillance has resulted in a 57% higher deforestation under his presidency, as monitored by the Amazon Environmental Resources Institute. Lula signed several international cooperation agreements with ambitious targets for Brazil, although deforestation was also an issue during his presidential terms. However, active and constant surveillance was more prominent. Bolsonaro claims Lula will threaten food security by prioritizing preservation of indigenous lands, while Lula believes agribusiness and extractives should be priorities in forested regions.
International Relations
Lula had a good relationship with all major countries, assuring Brazil a diplomatic presence around the world. Under his term, Brazil had a spotlight at international events, especially at environmental forums. He was a protagonist and an emerging market leader, and worked closely with other leftist administrations in Latin America. Bolsonaro maintains good relationships with liberal countries and far-right leaders around the world but is often criticized for his aggressive posture towards countries and leaders he considers are communist or socialist. He is criticized for his limited actions to protect the environment and Amazon rainforest. Cooperation with global NGOs has fallen during Bolsonaro’s administration and a challenge would be to convince the democratic world he is not an autocrat after he strongly criticized the electoral process.
Healthcare
Lula is a strong defender of Brazil’s public health system, which guarantees access to doctors, exams, vaccines and medications to all Brazilians free from charge. During his previous tenure, there was a clear effort to keep vaccines available and increase access to medications through popular drugstores maintained by the Government. Bolsonaro did not invest much in health, cutting funds to promote vaccine usage and often denying their efficacy, including during the pandemic. He limited funds to government-run drugstores.
Food Security and Agribusiness
Lula and Bolsonaro both support agribusiness but with different optics. Bolsonaro supports agribusiness aggressively, sometimes approving the use of inputs not permitted in other countries. NGOs have criticized his support for promoting economic interests over environmental ones. Lula was also criticized during his tenure but maintained a balance between economic and environmental interests. He supports movements to take over unproductive private lands and convert them into productive areas, leading to criticism from right-wing politicians. More recently, he supported the expansion of agriculture outside forested areas with less environmental impact.
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