US imports building toward August peak, but labor concerns weigh: retailers
US containerized imports are expected to build toward an August peak and in November will likely record the first year-over-year increase since June 2022, a major retail group said Friday.
Diminished prospects for recession
According to the GPT, the prospects for a recession in the second half of the year are dimming and imports should increase as consumer demand ticks up and retailers reduce the inventory overhang that has kept warehouses full over the past year.
Consumer demand is stable, and consumers have continued to spend while retailers and wholesalers have reduced their inventories, Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the GPT.
Retailers forecast that July imports will show a year-on-year decline of 11%, with August down 10.1%, September 3.4% and October 1.8%. Expected imports of 1.88 million TEUs in November would be up 5.9% from November 2022.