Unemployment in the AI Era
When it was first formally introduced at a conference in Dartmouth College in 1956, artificial intelligence was still a far-away idea that seemed too detached from reality to make a tangible difference to everyday life. Although the idea of constructing a sentient being from a scrap piece of metal was something straight from a sci-fi movie, MIT cognitive scientist Marvin Minsky — among others — remained optimistic about AI becoming a reality.
After a few decades of slow progress, AI research experienced a major breakthrough in 1997, when IBM’s Deep Blue became the first computer ever to beat a chess champion. As more emphasis was put into technology development, IBM once again surprised the world in 2011, when its AI-based question answering system known as Watson won the quiz show “Jeopardy!”
Today, AI has become ingrained in business operations, often assisting with data aggregation and analysis. Recently, firms such as General Electric, SAP, and Siemens have created more holistic platforms that analyze all the components of a business to better automate the decision-making process. Both managerial decisions and financial decisions are being made increasingly with the help of big data analysis. As a result, these firms have transformed the way modern businesses do business. As one example, SAP’s cloud platform HANA allows companies such as Walmart to monitor assembly line data, identify bottlenecks, and determine ways to optimize operations.
However, with all the changes that AI will continue to bring to the modern world, many people are beginning to question if the future really is all sunshine and rainbows. In particular, a question popping up in nearly every industry is:
What will happen to my career?
The optimists say that AI will drive job creation. A Capgemini study of 1,000 companies concluded that in 80% of the organizations it was implemented in, AI created new jobs. Moreover, a 2017 Gardner report predicts that in the next three years, AI will create 500,000 more jobs than it will displace.
However, the pessimists argue that many jobs will disappear without a replacement. In 2017, Gallup.com determined that AI threatens millennial jobs the most, with 37% of millennials being at risk of holding redundant jobs. The relative job security for older generations comes from the fact that older generations typically occupy senior roles, which are not easily replaceable. Furthermore, McKinsey reported that half of today’s work activities could be automated as early as 2035 in some scenarios.
The optimist and pessimist view might not go completely hand-in-hand, but they do share similarities. For one, both admit that AI will result in job losses, at least in the near future. Also, both share the view that the future will be heavily automated.
The problem, as McKinsey explains, is that while robots would “increase productivity and improve our lives,” they would also “substitute some work activities humans currently perform.”
McKinsey also noted that both developed and emerging economies will be affected, albeit to different extents. Those jobs that are likely to be most affected include positions in factories, fast-food restaurants, and general back-office operations.
On the flip side, AI is unlikely to invade jobs that require frequent social interaction or are difficult to otherwise automate, such as jobs in gardening, plumbing, and caregiving for children and the elderly.
McKinsey goes on to suggest that up to a third of the workforce in the US will have to learn new skills or change jobs. Surely, with rapid development in AI and robotics, many new jobs will be created to offset those that are lost. However, the transitionary period that people will need to go through to re-educate themselves and later re-enter the workforce may prove to be a significant burden on low-income families. That leads many to wonder:
What alternatives do I have?
Workers occupying jobs at risk of becoming obsolete will have to adapt to survive. One solution to the potential displacement of millions of jobs is the introduction of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Basicincome.org describes UBI as “a periodic cash payment unconditionally delivered to all on an individual basis, without means-test or work requirement.” Simply put, UBI is free money. Predictably, that makes UBI a highly controversial topic among scholars. Indeed, the topic sparked a debate between Zoltán Pogátsa, a Hungarian political economist, and Steve Fuller, Auguste Comte Chair in Social Epistemology at Warwick University. Pogátsa compared UBI to an improved form of welfare designed to elevate citizens to a higher standard of living. Fuller passionately disagreed, stating that UBI no longer makes sense, noting that “it’s an old socialist welfare state idea. We do not live in an old socialist welfare state world anymore. And as a result, we need a renegotiation of the terms.”
While UBI remains an option, the debate around it and its efficacy will postpone its potential implementation. It is likely that, even if UBI wins the approval of regulators, it will undergo numerous modifications before it is rolled out on a grand scale.
Another option is re-education. As mundane low-level jobs are automated, factory line workers, cashiers, and accountants will be forced to pursue education in a new field in order to stay competitive. However, AI occupying lower level mechanical positions will pave the way for many new jobs in creative areas such as management, artistry, and entrepreneurship. Thus, although job loss is inevitable, job creation is equally as inevitable.
The question then becomes, how long does it take for me to re-educate myself and pursue new opportunities? Depending on career choice, education can range from just 1 year to 4 or more. Adding this to the rising cost of pursuing a degree, re-education may be a risk that many aren’t willing to take.
The next few years seem to lack a viable solution for the rapid expansion of AI into most industries. However, the long run looks to have at least a couple realistic alternatives — UBI and its modifications, and re-education.
But until then, I’m out of luck?
Approximately 60% of the US population lacks a college degree. The majority of this 60% occupies low level positions prone to becoming obsolete with the development of AI. How will this vulnerable portion of the US population cope with having to pursue education to remain competitive in the workforce?
Oren Etzioni of wired.com offers one solution. As Etzioni points out, caregiving is a broad category of jobs that people categorically oppose machines doing, including companionship to the elderly, home health aides, baby sitters, special needs aides, and others.
As Etzioni writes, “Instead of expecting truck drivers and warehouse workers to rapidly re-train so they can compete with tireless, increasingly capable machines, let’s play to their human strengths and create opportunities for workers as companions and caregivers for our elders, our children, and our special-needs population. With this one action, society can both create jobs for the most vulnerable segments of our work force and improve the care and connection for all.”
The key idea to realize here is that with machines taking mechanical jobs, it is becoming more and more important for humans to be exactly that — human. Emotion, empathy, and human connection could never be matched by an artificial intelligence, yet these are the cornerstone to a successful human society.
In conclusion…
The AI revolution is already here. Jobs, primarily those that are afforded to millennials, are rapidly becoming obsolete, displacing thousands, and potentially millions in the future. With such a quick and drastic change to the economic landscape, as much as a third of the US population will need to pursue education to remain in the workforce. Alternatives such as UBI are also in contention, yet they are unlikely to be implemented in the short term. Instead, while the great migration from obsolete jobs to new ones takes place, workers will be looking to fill more “human” jobs — jobs such as caregiving.
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References:
https://www.livescience.com/49007-history-of-artificial-intelligence.html
https://www.techemergence.com/ai-in-business-intelligence-applications/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/12/robots-coming-for-800-million-jobs/
http://basicincome.org/basic-income/
https://futurism.com/ubi-universal-basic-income-alternative/
https://www.wired.com/story/workers-displaced-by-automation-should-try-a-new-job-caregiver/
