‘New normals’ in the world with COVID-19
Artikel ini tersedia juga dalam Bahasa Indonesia di sini.
For the past few months, we have radically changed the way we live as the novel coronavirus wreaked havoc on every aspect of our life. The contagious disease it is causing has forced the closing of shops, schools, and offices for an unforeseeable future.
Many measures have been taken around the world to curb the spreading of the virus; from total lockdown and social-distancing to Indonesia’s own ‘large-scale social restriction’ (PSBB) policy. These measures had altered the way we live as physical contacts and people’s mobility had been restricted.
Leaders have been speaking of reopening the economies to gradually resume our ‘normal life’ — but would there be such a world to come back to?
‘Making peace’ with COVID-19
On 16 May, President Joko Widodo addressed several questions like ‘is the government relaxing PSBB?’ and ‘can we return to normal activities to be productive?’ in a video released by the State Palace’s Information Bureau.
“PSBB will still be imposed,” he said, stressing that the government will look into ‘real-time numbers and facts’ before making any decision and that they will be ‘extra careful’ not to take the ‘wrong steps’.
“But we need to think about the situation of the people who lost their jobs and no longer have income,” the president continued, “We need to think about them. We want people to stay productive and safe from COVID-19.”
Jokowi resumed his statement by saying that we need to ‘compromise’, ‘live alongside’, ‘make peace’ with COVID-19. We need to step into ‘a new normal’ — living with a world with COVID-19.
This statement, lacking clear explanations of how the government would keep the people from contracting the virus while reopening the economy, invited pros-and-cons debates from experts and citizens alike.
As the number of national daily confirmed cases is still relatively increasing with hundreds of new cases each day, experts warned that the currently fluctuating curve could skyrocket if PSBB is relaxed.
Previously, the government’s decision to grant exemptions of travel restrictions to businesspeople, state officials, and essential workers also alarmed experts — some feared that people would abuse the loopholes in the policy, such as obtaining assignment letters from their offices to be able to travel despite lacking actual ‘essential urgencies’ required for them to be exempted.
Good data, good decision. Bad data, bad decision
West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil mentioned in a webinar held by IYKRA earlier this month that all decisions regarding the COVID-19 response should be based on data.
“We have this slogan [in the West Java administration]: Good data, good decision. Bad data, bad decision,” he said, emphasizing that if he only had received bad data, the decision he made as a leader would as well be substandard.
The governor acknowledged that there could be a decision-making dilemma amid this pandemic.
“We want to make tackling this health crisis to be the number one priority but, on the other hand, we don’t want the economy to be asleep. It’s difficult to combine these two things,” he said, mentioning that controversial policies such as the aforementioned transportation ban exemption and reopening of non-essential industries were products of the dilemma the government was facing.
Such a dilemma, he stated, was caused by insufficient data needed in deciding the correct ‘doses’ of actions.
Ridwan Kamil ensured that the West Java Province has prioritized transparency in its pandemic response. Data has been made public through the Pikobar website for everyone to use.
The use of data is central in Ridwan Kamil’s and his expert panel’s decision-making process, including in deciding whether or not we should ‘relax’ the provincial-scale PSBB.
Through an Instagram post, Ridwan Kamil published the administration’s evaluation of the West Java PSBB implementation.
“The curve has flattened by half,” he said in the caption. “Before PSBB, the average of daily confirmed cases was 40. Now it’s 21.”
He also emphasized that while the numbers were gradually declining and there had only been local infections, we needed to be vigilant of the potential people without symptoms (OTG) coming to West Java for mudik (homecoming) who could spread the virus without even knowing — insinuating that this success from implementing the PSBB should be maintained by enforcing mudik ban.
A similar sentiment came from an epidemiologist from Universitas Padjadjaran, Panji Fortuna Hadisumarto. Quoted by Humas Jabar, he stated that even though the PSBB has been implemented, the worst had yet to come.
“The first wave hasn’t even passed. [The curve] could potentially increase drastically if PSBB is relaxed,” he said, stressing that the PSBB implementation should even be tougher.
The normal ‘comfort zone’
While Governor Ridwan Kamil has emphasized that we need to drastically change our lifestyle as long as we don’t have a vaccine, West Java citizens seemed to be clinging to the comfortable normal, especially when the holy month of Ramadan had come.
During ritual-packed Ramadan, we got to see a sneak-peek of what Indonesia could look like post-PSBB relaxation; even when the policy is still imposed, markets and malls are crowded with people shopping to prepare for lebaran — and we fear the worst for Idulfitri, which is full of communal activities like mass prayers and open houses.
According to a data analysis by Jabar Digital Service showed in the chart above, the PSBB implementation has successfully dropped the number of traffic congestion is West Java, reflecting the success of the province’s containment strategy in declining people’s mobility.
However, the start of Ramadan on 24 May marked an alarming trend: traffic has seen to be increasing amid PSBB implementation, especially in the Greater Bandung area, likely due to Ramadan-related activities and, as the governor put it, pre-Idulfitri shopping spree.
People’s reluctance from leaving past habits like shopping in crowded malls that were considered ‘normal’ in the world before COVID-19 is disconcerting to epidemiologist Panji Fortuna Hadisumarto. He said that infection potential in commercial centers was high because viruses could easily be spread through surfaces.
“Imagine, if citizens are acting like this is like a normal time and crowding shopping malls without minding health protocols. This would increase infection risks,” he said.
Are we ready to begin a ‘new normal’?
Until vaccines are found and proven to be effective, we need to let go of the ‘comfortable normal’ and adjust to a new way of life.
The Indonesian government has compiled a somewhat comprehensive 75-page ‘new normal’ protocols, including health-and-sanitary instructions for public places to remote and online education guidelines. It even incorporates procedures for prevention and response of domestic abuse, which has risen amid stay-at-home policies worldwide.
Although, much like the PSBB implementation, we don’t have a clear vision of how this would be carried out in practice. We also don’t know yet what our strategies are in ‘lifting’ our ‘restriction’.
World Health Organization (WHO) epidemiologist Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove stated in a briefing that we might need to ‘remain at home for a little bit longer’ and that lockdowns and restrictions were to be lifted strategically — not all at once — if we want people to return to work and restart the economy ‘as quick as possible’.
According to the WHO, countries looking to ease their containment measures should meet certain criteria, including controlled transmission. Healthcare facilities also need to be capable to conduct testing, treat and isolate positive cases, as well as trace people who had been in contact with them.
In West Java, Ridwan Kamil has claimed that the PSBB had declined the number of new daily cases and reduced infections to only local transmission. However, he also acknowledged that the number of tests in West Java — which is currently the highest in the country — still needs to be improved to reflect the most accurate situation.
The province has now increased the testing capacity of its labs and healthcare facilities to balance the PSBB policy. It now has 9 main labs and 11 additional network labs to conduct Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests in West Java with the testing capacity of up to 5,838 specimens per day.
How does the ‘new normal’ look like?
After numbers are dropping and restrictions are relaxed, WHO’s Health Emergencies Program Executive Director Michael J. Ryan reminded leaders not to let their guards down. The new normal means that physical distancing and handwashing are still critical to follow even after restrictions are lifted.
“We are going to have to change our behaviors for the foreseeable future,” he said as quoted by the World Economic Forum.
Governor Ridwan Kamil has echoed such a sentiment and has expressed his own prediction of what our new normal could look like. He stressed the role of technology in embarking on our new normal in the world with COVID-19.
He predicted that post-pandemic, we would become a contactless society — relying on technology and limiting physical interaction as we’ve become used to it. People would prefer video-conference to offline meetings. Most of us would choose online shopping over walking out to stores. Telehealth would be favored too.
Ridwan Kamil said that even in villages technology would be critical in a world post-pandemic. Luckily, West Java had taken a step ahead even before COVID-19 with the Digital Village program. Fish-farmers in some areas of West Java had already practiced remote-feeding through IoT technology.
“The provincial government will respond to the ‘new normal’ with relevant utilization of technology,” he said, adding that the West Java Government would strengthen technology infrastructure, which he mentioned would then be our ‘backbone’, to embark on the new normal.
