Scott Walker could easily lose re-election

Well, the title is pretty self-explanatory. Despite all of Walker’s successes in Wisconsin, he’s no political genius. Rather, he is a disciplined manager who has made a career out of strict adherence to the basic rules of modern campaigning: Raise money, stay on message, avoid gaffes.

That formula was good enough for him to win twice running in two election cycles that heavily favored Republicans (2010 & 2014) as well as for him to prevail in an unprecedented recall election that a) most Wisconisinites were never entirely comfortable with and b) which similarly involved low turnout in Democratic strongholds, notably Milwaukee.

Of course, that formula failed miserably during his short-lived campaign for president. Eleven days before he dropped out of the race, I wrote this in the Atlantic:

Walker’s political persona is by no means unique. In fact, superficial, consultant-driven political rhetoric is endemic to American politics. The fact that it is so common is one reason that candidates like Trump, who may be liars but at least are not boring liars, have had such a great effect. Because they’re the opposite of Scott Walker.

The most recent poll puts Walker’s approval rating at 45% and his disapproval rating at 48%. And yet the Democrats apparently can’t find a decent candidate willing to take him on. It’s gotten so bad that Madison’s perennial mayor, Paul Soglin, has said he is thinking of going for guv. A grumpy, arrogant FIB*-turned-Madisonian is not ideal, but there’s a chance that the political landscape will be so bad for Republicans next year that the Dems could take back the governorship even without a great candidate.

I sincerely hope that Democrats will articulate a message beyond opposing Trump, but the crazy guy in the White House and the party that enables him is kind of a big deal. It should be a big issue in every major political race in this country. And it should be an issue that, two years into this extended national circus, Scott Walker loses on.

*Fucking Illinois Bastard, a derisive term employed by Wisconsinites to describe Chicagoans.