Electoral Strategies for Old Mysore Region based on Census Data of 1931

The Old Mysore State had Mysore, Bangalore, Kolar, Tumkur, Chitradurga, Shimoga, Kadur, Hassan. There is too much buzz everywhere on which castes dominates in this region and the controversy of unpublished caste census has resulted in various speculation on which community dominates this space.

In this, a systematic analysis of 1931 census document is undertaken to come up with what are the possible polarization and caste combination strategies that may give political parties an advantage. This is purely based on 1931 caste census.

Now the above graph gives an idea of which community dominates these entire region.

“ Vokkaligas are the most dominant in these regions followed by Adikarnataka(SC) and Lingayat communities. “

We will get into the individual numbers now, which will throw some light on caste distribution in these regions.

Population in 1000’s of each caste in various districts

Let us do some interesting combinations which can help Political Parties win…

Bangalore District — This is most likely rural Bangalore. The report clearly mentions the domination of upper castes in cities and the same continues today. But in rural parts, you can see clear domination of Adikarnataka(SC) and Vakkaliga.

SC+Vakkaliga Combination = 440 ( 440 means 440,000)

Rest of the castes = 206

In Bangalore Rural Districts, SC+ Vakkaliga vote share is double the vote share of Rest of the castes. By systematically targeting these vote bases, a massive swing can be achieved here. So, polarization of these two castes would help win Bangalore District. Notice that Lingayat's don't have a significant population in these regions.

Kolar — Here again, there is very little presence of Lingayat's. Here again Vakkaliga + Adikarnataka(SC) combination will help swing majority of the votes

SC+ Vokkaliga = 318

SC+ Vokkaliga + Kuruba + Beda = 384

So the ideal combination of targeting in Kolar would be SC + Vokkaliga + Kuruba + Beda. Note that Bedas are also categorized as SC. So clearly this is SC dominated region.

Tumkur

Tumkur can have multiple combinations and it can result

Adikarnataka + Vakkaliga =258

Adikarnataka + Vakkaliga + Kunchatiga(a category of vokkaliga)=324

Lingayat + Adikarnataka + Vakkaliga = 403

Lingayat + Adikarnataka = 217

So, Tumkur appears to be a tightly fought one. There are three major castes divided equally and it all depends on who will get the Lingayat, Adikarnataka and Vokkaliga votes. So here there is tight competition among all the candidates.

So, the ideal combination would be Adikarnataka + Vokkaligas (including Kunchatiga ). Other combinations would be Lingayat + Vakkaliga +Kurubas + Yadavas. Notice that Kurubas and Yadavas are all backward classes and can be targeted effectively. This combination of sub caste targeting would help political parties garner more votes

Mysore

In Mysore, there is clear domination of Vokkaliga, Adikarnataka, Lingayat castes.

Vokkaliga + Adikarnataka = 611

Adikarnataka + Kuruba =368

Adikarnataka + Kuruba + Vokkaliga = 750

Lingayat + Adikarnataka = 429

Lingayat + Adikarnataka + Kurubas = 568

So clearly, we can see the best combinations would be Vokkaliga + Adikarnataka. Again, if Lingayat's have to win this region, the only option for them is to tie up with Adi Karnataka and Kurubas.

Chitradurga

Now Chitradurga is a completely different district. In this SC’s, who include Adikarnataka and Bedas are the most dominant with a total population of around 186,000 ( read as 186). Next is Lingayat ( 141)

So clearly in Chitradurga SC + Lingayat would work effectively.

Hassan

In Hassan, vokkaligas are the strongest and they have the maximum votes of 188000. So, if we add these to Adi Karnataka votes, it would be 284000.

So clearly in case of Hassan, if Lingayat candidate has to win, the only option is to align themselves with Adikarnataka and Kuruba community which will offset the Vokkaliga domination

Kadur

In Kadur, the best combination is Adikarnataka + Lingayat Combinations which would get the best share of votes

Shimoga

In Shimoga, again Lingayat votes are dominant. However, if we add Adikarnataka votes to Lingayat's, then Clearly, they would bag maximum vote share. This is an important combination that should work.

However if Lingayats have to be defeated than, Adikarnataka + Idiga + Vokkaliga may be a good combination to target.

So friends, caste census has tremendous benefits in understanding the vote % of each caste and having these data would help you micro target to each caste based on their population.

I’m working on remaining districts. We would publish it in a short period of time. However, this does not consider the Muslims population which is again a big factor in few districts.

Unlike other states, the presence of three major communities Adikarnataka, Lingayats, Vokkaligas makes the elections much more competitive as compared to other states.