Estimating SC/ST/OBC percentages in various states in the absence of caste census
Caste Census has not been carried out in Independent India from 1931 onwards. Although reservation policies required recording of the SC/ST Population in various censuses till 2011, however there are no reliable estimates of OBC population. In this background, there are many speculations on the percentages of SC/ST/OBC and even minority population in various states which has become a cause of disagreement for socio economic and political power. It is in this context, many political parties have demanded a detailed caste census to be carried out and various supreme court judgements place a lot of emphasis on empirical data on caste to be provided to substantiate reservation for a given community.
However, in the absence of any such caste census it is almost impossible for any individuals to predict the percentages of the OBC/Minority population in the country which may be especially important for many social and political decisions.
In this background, I have been researching various data points on how to get this data from various places. In one of my articles earlier on, I figured out that the primary enrollment data published in UDISE plus was one of the data points that can be used for getting accurate projections of SC/ST/OBC population in various states. This data is also available on a district level and a detailed study was done for Karnataka state. However, I did not have the time for other states. However, an average prediction for states is also provided in the article given below.
Now I was going through the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) and I found some interesting data that was remarkably interesting in the 2015–16 survey, the link for the survey is given below
60263_National_Report_Full File 05–07–2018 WEB.pdf (rchiips.org)
Page 32 and 33 give the percentage of population of household under distinct categories. The extracts of the same are enclosed below
Some key insights from the above survey are as follows
(1) At an all-India level, the average SC population is around 20.6% and ST population is around 9.2%. However as per the 2011 census, this was 16.6% and 8.6% for SC and ST
(2) This is one of the first official government surveys which has documented OBC population. On an average level, the OBC population is around 42.2% of the population. While the others account for 27.2% of the total population.
(3) In Northern Region, the role of SC/ST population is incredibly significant than OBC population.
The above analysis clearly shows that Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand have substantial SC+ST population. It was earlier thought that SC+ST population is not significant in the Northern region. Contrary to this, Punjab has one of the highest SC/ST populations of 37.6% followed by Delhi and Himachal Pradesh that have a population of around 28%. In Haryana and Rajasthan, the OBC population is also extremely high. Notice that in these states, SC+ST+OBC population is more than 70% which shows that two thirds of the populations are from lower castes or the shudras of the varna system. In Jammu and Kashmir, there is a significant population of Muslims. Also, in Delhi and Uttarakhand, there is substantial base of Muslims which can have significant effect on voting patterns in the state.
(4) In the central region, there are places where SC+ST+OBC population is more than 90%.
Notice that in Chhattisgarh, more than 91.4% of the population belong to SC/ST/OBC communities. In both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh there is a significant population of SC+ST population at around 45.3% and 37.7% in these communities. In Uttar Pradesh also there is a sizeable population of SC/ST at 25.6%.
Look at the SC+ST+OBC population % in these states which is already breaching the 75% population level. Only in Uttar Pradesh, there is a significant presence of Muslim population of 17.5% which can influence the electoral prospects of a candidate
(5) In the Southern region, it is the complete dominance of SC+ST+OBC which is crossing more than 90% across the states.
Let me first take my home state Karnataka and my wife’s state Tamilnadu. Usually, these states are projected to be upper caste dominated states but look at the SC+ST population…It is 30.2% in Karnataka and 28.7% in Tamilnadu. In Southern states, after Lakshadweep, Karnataka has the highest population of SC+ST population followed by Tamilnadu.
Other states like Telangana and Andra Pradesh are also not far behind. Surprisingly in Lakshadweep, Puducherry and Tamilnadu, the SC+ST+OBC population has touched 98% leaving the general merit population to just 2% of the population. In these states it is unreasonable to fix the SC+ST+OBC reservation percentages to just 50% since it would be like giving 50% of the seats to 2% of the population. In Kerala, the role of SC/ST population is very negligible, however there is a considerable influence of OBC and Muslim population. Kerala has a high Muslim population of 22.9%.
(6) In the East, there is a peculiar pattern visible in West Bengal, where there is a sizable SC population of 28.4% and ST population of 6.3%. But surprisingly the OBC population is exceedingly small in this state. West Bengal also has a significant population of Muslims at around 23.9% of the population. Bihar, a large state, is an OBC dominated state. While Jharkhand and Odisha have high ST population. The total SC +ST population is well over 40%. In these states even OBC population is extremely high. On an aggregate, the SC+ST+OBC population is way above 80%.
(7) In the Northeast, there is a predominant domination of ST and Christians except for in Assam, where there is a sizable Muslim Population of 32.5% which makes a significant difference.
(8) In the western region, SC, ST population is not significant. In Maharashtra alone there is 17.3% SC population. Therse regions have a high forward caste population and high OBC population. Gujarat has 40% OBC population.
The above analysis clearly shows the need for a comprehensive caste census highlighting population percentages, backwardness index and many other policy parameters which can provide effective data for decision making. The above data would help in proper targeting of various schemes and political campaigns during elections which would benefit the political parties.
What emerges from the above analysis is that SC+ST+OBC population is higher than what is told and the recent recognition of these communities' leaders in important positions of political parties shows that the consolidation of SC ST OBC votes would decide who would be the winner.
