“Pace and Space” Effect in Sports : NBA Edition
4 Trends that are changing the game of Basketball
The way sports teams are built have changed, the way players are playing have changed, the way coaches’ coach have changed, and the way that fans are viewing sports have changed. Sports are not the same as it was 50 years ago, or even 20 years ago. Teams are trying to get any and every competitive edge that they can get to separate themselves from the pack. Teams are starting to use the field/court in a more efficient way, teams are spending money in a more efficient way, and teams have embraced the importance of analytics. In this 3-part blog series, I will discuss the biggest trend in the NBA, MLB, and NFL, which is “Pace and Space.”
What is the “Pace and Space” effect? Pace and Space effect is the competitive advantage that every team is focusing on in every sport. NBA teams are increasing the volume of 3-point shots, removing big men who can’t shoot, taking away the midrange jump-shot, and having small ball lineups. NFL teams are spreading out their offenses more, finding more speed on the outside, running the football less, and using mobile quarterbacks to use the field in a more efficient way. MLB teams are increasing the volume of shifts on defense, finding the hardest throwing pitchers in the world, throwing more off-speed pitches, and hitters are swinging at more first pitches.
The first part of this 3-part series talked about the “Pace and Space” effect in the NFL. In this blog, Part 2, I will talk about the “Pace and Space” effect in the NBA and how it’s changing the league with numbers to back it up.
4 ways that show how the NBA is evolving into a pace and space league:
1.) Postionless Basketball
“I don’t have the five positions anymore… you’re either a ball-handler, a wing, or a big.” -Brad Stevens, Head Coach of the Boston Celtics.
Conventional positions are no longer important. Now, teams are asking big men to be able to bring the ball up the court, hit threes, and defend smaller guards. Guards are now being asked to defend big men in the paint. Teams all across the NBA are looking for players that are versatile and switchable, meaning that they have the ability to switch who they’re guarding while on defense.
These big men who need to be able to hit threes and bring the ball up the court (or at least handle the ball) are called stretch big men. They are called stretch bigs because they “stretch the court” or create spacing within the offense. They have the ability to play like a guard which allows more opportunities to get in the paint and allows off ball offensive players to hit more catch and shoot 3’s. Players who are stretch big men are the best big men in the game today. This includes players like Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Karl Anthony-Towns, Porzingis, and Rudy Gobert. These players no longer have to ability to sit in the paint and go to work. They need to be able to space the floor offensively, be somewhat comfortable outside the 3-point circle, and they need to be able to defend ball-handling guards when they need to.
Guys like Shaq, Kareem Abdul-Jabaar, George Mikan, and Wilt Chamberlain simply don’t exist anymore (unfortunately). Quick stat: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. He made 15,837 shots in his career. He only made 1 3-pointer. This kind of stat is not possible in today’s NBA. In today’s NBA, if you want to be the leading scorer or close to the leading scorer, you need to be able to hit 3’s, handle the ball extremely well, and be able to create your own shots.
Shots in the paint are supposed to be the easiest shot in basketball, so why are teams spacing the floor and playing positionless basketball? The effect on defense. Big men, especially in today’s game, are big, long, and quick. They can block shots a lot easier in the paint than outside the paint and it’s a very difficult play to try to post up against players like Joel Embiid. The value of the post player has collapsed. Why? Because space matters and teams are learning that investing in a 24 foot shot (worth 3 points with less chance of getting blocked) is a lot better than investing in a 4 foot shot (worth 2 points with more chance of getting blocked). This doesn’t mean that 4-foot shots are bad. It means teams want the defense to be more spaced out, so that players can drive to the hoop easier and create more open catch and shoot 3’s.
Teams are using small ball lineups to maximize the space on the floor. Teams like the Rockets have PJ Tucker and Robert Covington as their two “big men” on the court. The Warriors in the 2016 and 2017 finals had players like Draymond Green as their center. Small ball lineups can be difficult to defend, can create extraordinary space offensively, and creates mismatches all over the court.
I, personally, do not like this style of basketball at all. But, this is the way basketball is trending. Positionless basketball, small ball lineups, and stretch bigs. I prefer balance among lineups. I like watching big players get physical in the paint, use their footwork in the paint, and rebound with authority. However, unless the NBA rules change, this type of play is slowly fading away.
2.) Increase in 3-point shots
“I can go 3 for 5 and take all 2-point shots. Or I can go 2 for 5 and take all 3-point shots. You get the same amount of points and you can afford to miss more shots.” -Daryl Morey, GM from the Houston Rockets.
I could write an entire book on the evolution of the 3-point shot and how it’s completely changing the NBA today. Kirk Goldsberry, the author of the book, Sprawball, says this about the 3-point shot: “The addition of the 3-point shot is the biggest rule change in any major sport. Imagine MLB suddenly said that homers that reach the upper deck are worth one and a half runs instead of 1.” I agree. The NBA essentially gave players the opportunity to get another point if they shoot from 23 feet instead of 21 feet. Through analytics and common sense, teams and players have started to understand how valuable the 3-point shot really is.
Three quick stats to display how the 3-point shot is taking over the game:
1.) In 1987, Larry Bird, made 98 threes (most of his career). In 2017, Harden drew 116 3-point shooting fouls!
2.) In 1979–80, when the three point shot was introduced, teams averaged 0.8 three-pointers made on 2.8 attempts. In 2017–2018, teams averaged 10.5 three-pointers made on 29 attempts.
3.) Over the last 4 years, the Rockets average around 45 3-pointers a game, which is almost 50% of their total shots.
4.) Prior to 2015–16, no NBA player had ever made 300 3-pointers in a single season. That season, Curry sank 402.
The value of a 3-point shot is worth more than the value of a 2-point shot, except for dunks and layups. Teams are learning the lack of value from 7-feet to the 22-foot range. Midrange shots are the least efficient shot in the game. Below is a perfectly made chart to highlight the points per shot on each area of the court.
This chart, made by Kirk Goldsberry, also shows the incredibly efficiency of the corner 3. Some call it the most efficient shot in the game. The corner 3 is closer to the hoop at 22 feet instead of 23.75 feet away. Most corner 3 attempts are off assists once the defense collapses. The corner 3, in 2017–2018, was made nearly 40% of the time by the entire NBA. Why is this shot worth 3 points? Great question. But, teams understand the value of that shot and are building their offenses to create more corner 3 opportunities.
Want to space the floor even more? Have players who can heave up three-pointers from nearly half-court. During the 2018–19 season, Lillard made more than 39% of his attempts from between 30 and 40 feet. (3-point line its 23.75 feet from the hoop). This is insane! Since 2014, Steph Curry has made 45% of his attempts from 30–35 feet. Try to defend that! These deep 3 ball shooters are spacing the floor even more, forcing the defense to provide open lanes in the paint, and allows for the offense to get back on defense faster.
Below is a shot chart from his rookie season and from last season. The charts show just how much James Harden has bought into the analytics of basketball, the value of the 3-point shot, and the removal of the mid-range jump shot to his game.
Chart on the left = Harden’s shot chart his rookie year. Chart on the right = Harden’s shot chart last year (2018–2019)
Space is king, especially in today’s NBA.
3.) Increase in Offensive Tempo, Fast Break Opportunities, and Pop Time
Teams are scoring at rates higher than ever before. Final scores of some of these games are 130–128 or 141–131. Before games ended at a normal 90–86 or 98–94. A big reason to this, besides the increase in 3-point shots, is offensive tempo. Teams are trying to get out on more fast-break opportunities to get easy baskets, teams are trying to shoot within 7 seconds on the shot clock to increase their opportunities, teams are trying to catch the defense off guard, and teams are trying to shoot more shots in every game. More shots equate to more points.
Offensive pace has never been higher in the history of basketball. According to nba.com/stats, the offensive pace is 103.2 this season, up from 98.5 last season and 97.4 in 2016–17. This increase in offensive pace also increase fast break points as well. Fast break opportunities are one of the easiest ways to create open looks. In the 2003–2004 season, the leading team in fast break points was the Detroit Pistons. They averaged 2.7 fast break points per game. In the 2019–2020 season, the Toronto Raptors are leading the NBA in fast break points per game. They are averaging nearly 20 fast break points per game.
With the addition of the 3-point shot, teams need to find another competitive advantage to separate themselves from the rest of the league. One way to do that is to look at the Pop Time of every three-point shot and look at player’s quickest and slowest pop times. Pop Times allows players to get there 3-point shot off faster and prevents the defense from blocking their shot. Players like Klay Thompson, Khris Middleton, and Kyle Korver release 3-pointers at an extremely fast rate. They are extremely valuable to the Pace and Space league that the NBA is currently in.
Players are trying to find every opportunity to take fast jumpers without losing their efficiency in the process.
4.) Evolution of NBA rule changes
The NBA has been and is continuing to trend towards an offensive focused game. The NBA want fans to get the best experience possible and they believe that the fans will be more entertained when offenses score a lot of points.
In 1999, due to aggressive defense, the NBA created a rule to prevent defensive hand checking. This prevented defenders from holding on to offensive players with their hands and forearms. The NBA wanted to create a softer game and a more offensive focused game. “We want to make it a more free-flowing, fluid, wide-open game,” said Rod Thorn, a former NBA’s vice president of basketball operations. This allowed for offensive players to get past their defenders better and gave offensive players more opportunities to get the shot they wanted.
That rule change was one the biggest rule changes in why the NBA is now a spacing league. Referees are more likely to call fouls for hand checking outside the paint than inside the paint. Also, since it’s so difficult to defend the perimeter, it promotes speed on the offensive side of the ball (more small ball lineups) so that they can get around their defenders more easily.
In 2001, the NBA implemented the defensive 3-second rule which forced defenders to get out of the paint. This created more space in offensive schemes and forced big men defenders to defend outside the paint.
The NBA also implemented the offensive 5-second rule which forced offensive big men to not stand in the paint for the whole possession.
These are just a few examples of how NBA rule changes have made the game more of a Pace and Space game. This is the way that future NBA rules are going to be made. The NBA promotes pace, space, and scoring. The NBA favor guards way more than they favor big men. To prove it, take a look at this stat:
- In the last 16 years, there has been 0 centers who have won the MVP.
Gone are the days where big men dominate and it’s the NBA’s fault.
Conclusion
The NBA is a completely different sport than it was 30 years ago. Teams understand the importance of building a roster around the “Pace and Space” mindset. Teams are hiring coaches that promote the “Pace and Space” approach. And players are remodeling their games to fit the “Pace and Space” approach. Interior superstars like Lebron James are being forced to expand their games in the perimeter.
If Michael Jordan got drafted in 2020, his game would be completely different. In the 90’s, Jordan dropped 30–40 points a game without even taking a 3. In today’s game, he would have to alter his game to shoot less midrange jumpers and more 3’s. He’d have to learn how to create offensive space and he would need to use the transition offense more consistently.
The “Pace and Space” effect is here and trending upwards in the NBA world. Teams need to not only understand the implications offensively, but also understand the implications defensively. It’s taking over basketball.
