“Pace and Space” Effect in Sports : NFL Edition
4 Trends that is changing the game of football
The way sports teams are built have changed, the way players are playing have changed, the way coaches’ coach have changed, and the way that fans are viewing sports have changed. Sports are not the same as it was 50 years ago, or even 20 years ago. Teams are trying to get any and every competitive edge that they can get to separate themselves from the pack. Teams are starting to use the field/court in a more efficient way, teams are spending money in a more efficient way, and teams have embraced the importance of analytics. In this 3-part blog series, I will discuss the biggest trend in the NBA, MLB, and NFL, which is “Pace and Space.”
What is the “Pace and Space” effect? Pace and Space effect is the competitive advantage that every team is focusing on in every sport. NBA teams are increasing the volume of 3-point shots, removing big men who can’t shoot, taking away the midrange jump-shot, and having small ball lineups. NFL teams are spreading out their offenses more, finding more speed on the outside, running the football less, and using mobile quarterbacks to use the field in a more efficient way. MLB teams are increasing the volume of shifts on defense, finding the hardest throwing pitchers in the world, throwing more off-speed pitches, and hitters are swinging at more first pitches.
In this blog, Part 1, I will talk about the “Pace and Space” effect in the NFL and how it’s changing the league with numbers to back it up. 4 ways that show how the NFL is evolving into a pace and space league:
1.) Heavy Running Backs or Fullbacks are on the verge of extinction.
Guys like Jerome Bettis, Brandon Jacobs, Mike Alstott, and Larry Csonka are things of the past. They are on the verge on extinction. Teams are looking for running backs who can catch out of the back field, running backs who are elusive, and running backs who can space the field with their speed. Even, fullback Kyle Juszczyk from the San Francisco 49ers, is going out for wheel routes. Running the football, especially early in games, is a thing of the past. Passing the football is a thing of the future. At least smart teams think this way. “In 1987, NFL average offensive DVOA was 6.6% passing, -1.6% rushing. By comparison, in 2017, the average was 11.7% passing, -5.6% rushing. The passing premium is higher now than it was 30 years ago.” (Via Aaron Schatz). Below is a chart showing the yards per completion for every completion and rushing attempt. Passing the football is clearly the most productive play in football:
As shown above, passing the football averages over 7 yards per attempt, while running the football averages 4 yards per attempt.
3rd down running backs will become the every down, prototypical running back. Teams will adjust their drafts, free agency pickups, and trade targets to acquire these types of running backs. This will create more space offensively and can outrun defenses with their speed.
2.) Play Calling Has Drastically Changed
The extinction of bruising running backs and power backs is a direct correlation to how plays are called. Years ago, running the ball was the only way to consistently move the chains. Now, it’s become the reverse. Running the ball is now primarily used just to keep a defense honest or to utilize the space that the passing game has created by forcing defenders into coverage. This is how teams are building their rosters and coaching styles, at least the smart teams are. Below is a chart of passing attempts vs. rushing attempts over the years:
As defenses are trying to stop the vertical passing game, teams can rush more effectively underneath. This can only be possible if the defense respects your offensive passing game. It is very hard to find teams who can successfully run the ball without having an effective pass game. This is why coaches are now using (should be) using the motto: “Pass to get the lead. Run to stay ahead.” Coaches understand the importance of spacing the field and using every inch of the football field to their advantage.
Teams are also calling a lot more plays out of the shot-gun, which makes it easier for the quarterback to read defenses, easier to avoid sacks, and gives offensive linemen more time to block opposing linemen. According to Football Outsiders, in 2003, the New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers took zero snaps from shotgun, and five other teams used it less than 5% of the time. Last season, the entire NFL was in a shotgun formation 63% of all offensive plays. Just another way coaches are understanding the importance of space.
3.) Mobile Quarterbacks is the Future.
The new wave of quarterbacks is on the rise. The pocket passing quarterback is slowly dying. Mobile Quarterbacks are the future. Guys like Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Tua, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson is what you’ll be watching for the next 10 years.
Over the last two seasons, quarterbacks have accounted for 13.9% of the league’s rushing attempts — the highest rate ever. As mentioned above, coaches are looking for every opportunity to utilize the entire field and space out the defense. With the increase of shotgun snaps and spread out offenses, it’s easier than ever for quarterbacks to find yards with their feet. Defenses are spread out all across the field trying to stop offenses both vertically and horizontally. QB’s are taking advantage of this by finding holes to run through.
“But, mobile quarterbacks are more likely to get hurt.” I believe the opposite is true. I actually think mobile quarterbacks give teams a higher potential for success and are less likely to get hurt. Quarterbacks are now committed to sliding or running out of bounds to prevent hits, they have the best strength trainers in the world, can maneuver themselves around the pocket better, able to dodge defenders, and NFL rules have changed to protect quarterbacks. Here are mobile quarterbacks who have had a lengthy career with very high success and not a strong injury history:
Randall Cunningham: 15 seasons
Mike Vick: 13 seasons
Steve Young: 15 seasons
Donovan McNabb: 13 seasons
Roger Staubach: 11 seasons
John Elway: 16 seasons
Steve McNair: 13 seasons
Russell Wilson: 8 seasons (and many more to come)
There were more quarterbacks that could have been added to the list but it goes to show that mobile quarterbacks are not injury prone if they are smart with the football, smart with dodging defenders, and smart with their offseason workout program. Rule changes also greatly benefit these mobile quarterbacks because they are less likely to take big hits due to the NFL wanting to protect that position.
Mobile quarterbacks increase the pace and space of the entire offense. It gives play callers the ability to get creative on offense, ability to use RPO’s, and the ability to not only stretch the field vertically, but also horizontally.
Now, obviously you cannot simply be a fast quarterback. You need to understand the position, able to read defenses, consistently make smart decisions, and be able to make throws down field. However, mobility is starting to become a required trait of a successful quarterback. Before, mobility was simply an addition to a quarterback’s skill set. Now, the quarterback is essentially required to be mobile if they want success. In basketball terminology, teams are looking for scorers instead of shooters. NFL teams want quarterbacks to be able to create their own plays.
Athletic quarterbacks simply put stress on a defense. If you have a quarterback who can pass and run, the defense is in trouble. This is what NFL teams are looking for. This is the competitive advantage that teams crave.
4.) Positionless Defense
In basketball, we hear the terms “positionless basketball.” This is when positions are becoming less defined as skill sets evolve. Big players are not forced to play under the basket or post up anymore. They stretch the defense by being able to shoot 3’s, handle the ball, and defend other guards when called upon. This is positionless basketball and it seems like there is starting to be a positionless defense trend in the NFL.
Teams like the Chargers and Ravens are starting to implement this method where they are creating speed among the back-7. They are putting players like Earl Thomas (safety) in the box and playing him like a linebacker. According to Pro Football Focus, Thomas has played in the box on 234 of his snaps, a placed he lined up on 329 times during the six-year period of 2013 to 2018. Thomas has also blitzed more than ever, as he’s rushed 48 times so far this season, compared to only 15 rushes 2013–18. The Ravens are maximizing his potential by getting him closer to the line of scrimmage, creating more speed in their secondary, and helping the Ravens be able to defend teams/players who have speed.
Without the increase in pass plays, the increase in mobile quarterbacks, and the elusive pass catching running backs, the Ravens would have never even thought of this strategy. However, they understand the direction of the NFL and is doing everything they can to prevent these highly efficient offenses from scoring points. Most defenses, in the past, have found success building their defenses from front to back. The Ravens are building their defense from back to front, and using their speed, instincts, and range. They use this speed, instincts, and range to do 2 things: 1.) Creative Blitzes and Stunts. 2.) Defend the entire field and defend offensive speed.
Positionless defense is definitely a trend that will get more recognition in the near future. Teams like the Ravens are just 1 step ahead of everyone else.
Conclusion
The “Pace and Space” effect is having a huge impact on sports today, especially the NFL. Teams are continuing to try to find a competitive advantage that can separate themselves from the pack. Being able to effectively use the entire field and to do it at a faster rate than everyone else is the separator for success. The NFL is just getting started with how teams are using “Pace and Space.”
Thank you for reading this article. For any questions, complains, or comments you can reach me at:
Twitter= @Jake_Taraska
