Could Luka Doncic be the Euro LeBron?
This year’s top NBA draft prospect has a real chance to be the most transformative player of this decade. Here are the similarities between the kid and the King at age 18.
Forget everything you know about LeBron James. Forget the three championships, the three Finals MVPs, the four MVPs, the 14 All-Star appearances, and the 11 First Team All-NBA selections. Take yourself back — if you can — to 2003, when James was an 18-year-old prodigy ready to take the league by storm.
After averaging 31.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 3.4 steals per game in his senior year of high school, James was seen as a can’t-miss prospect and a franchise changer at the next level. Back in the early 2000s, the interest in the NBA Draft and the depth of media coverage wasn’t nearly what it is today, but here’s a brief snippet of James’s strength from NBA.com.
“Best attribute is his ability to make the correct pass with flair. Excellent strength and body control. His size and versatility allow him to play multiple positions. Coaches and teammates praise his unselfishness.”
Too often, NBA scouts and talent evaluators are too quick to anoint players as the “Next Big Thing.” It’s blasphemous and absurd to say European wunderkind Luka Doncic will have a career like LeBron, and it’s still a stretch to project him as a Hall-of-Famer.
While it’s completely unfair to Doncic and James to compare the two players at their current stages in their careers, it’s reasonable to compare the two players at age 19. Once upon a time, LeBron was an unproven, untested 18-year-old and a No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. The former is true of Doncic now, and this June, it’s likely the latter will be as well. Here’s why the European player you’ve likely never seen play could be the closest thing we’ve seen in years to a young LeBron James.
Strengths
Let’s play a game: I’ll list strengths from scouting reports of James in 2003 and Doncic in 2018, and you guess which attribute describes which player.
“Transcendent passer. Puts perfect velocity and touch on passes, plus has the height to pass over the defense. Advanced ball handler for his age with an excellent feel for using crossovers, hesitations, and different speeds.”
“Draws a ton of fouls; knows how to use his thick, strong frame to create and absorb contact. Skilled post player; he uses his excellent footwork to work into turnaround jumpers, up-and-unders, drop steps, and hook shots. Excellent rebounder for his position, and he quickly turns boards into transition offense.”
“Is comfortable with the ball in his hands, makes his teammates better as a passer and reads the floor beyond his years.”
Trick question — all three quotes refer to Luka Doncic, not the King. The first two are from The Ringer’s thorough NBA Draft guide, while the latter is from Sports Illustrated’s NBA analyst Jeremy Woo. For comparison, here’s how scouts described LeBron before the ’03 Draft.
“His vision and passing skills are what sets him apart. A player with his combination of size, and point guard skills is very rare… There are no more than 5 players in the NBA that have the vision and passing skills of LeBron. He has all the gifts to play PG, but he will likely have to start at the 2 and 3 positions before he can really run a team from the point guard position.”
Clearly, both players came into the league as heralded play-makers with great vision, passing and ball-handling abilities. Additionally, Doncic and James entered the draft with great physical tools.
James was seen as a revolutionary prospect out of high school with his chiseled 6'8, 240 pound frame. While Doncic is far less physically intimidating, he measures out at a comparable 6'8, 228 pounds according to The Ringer. At the ages of 18 and 19 respectively, James and Doncic show impressive size and athleticism for players with elite play-making abilities normally seen from smaller guards.
It’s far-fetched to speculate that Doncic will grow into a 250-pound frame and be the physical force James has shown himself to be, but at the least he’s entering the NBA with great physical tools. His passing and play-making abilities project well, as do his abilities to score and rebound.
Weaknesses
Neither prospect came into the draft as perfect, though James was as close to perfect as any prospect before or since. He was seen as a franchise cornerstone and a “can’t miss” player. In 2003, NBA scouts had to search hard for holes in his game and areas of potential weakness.
“Can he stay focused and continue to work hard to improve his game? His free throw shooting must improve. Right now, he’s under 70%, but this should definitely improve with experience. Defensive intensity must get better. LeBron still tends to go for the spectacular at times when a solid play is all that’s necessary. But it’s probably nitpicking as he likes to put on a show, and usually only brings out tricks when the game is in hand.”
Over the next 15 years, it would become clear that James would work relentlessly to improve his game, as he’s still in his prime at age 33. Any questions surrounding James’s defensive prowess evaporated quickly, as shown by his six NBA All-Defensive selections. Free throw shooting has been one of the King’s few weaker points, though he’s always been passable in that category.
It didn’t take a genius to see how promising James was, and his few weaknesses were shored up quickly. What’s puzzling is, despite sharing many strengths with James with a similar frame, Doncic is far from a surefire No. 1 overall selection in this June’s draft. There’s often a stigma around European players, possibly due to many NBA fans’ lack of familiarity with the Euro league or overseas players.
Doncic is far from flawless, though like James, most of his perceived weaknesses seem to be correctable. Here’s Doncic’s biggest flaws according to The Ringer’s Draft Guide:
“Struggles to contain quicker, more explosive players due to average agility and lateral quickness. Pick-and-roll defense must improve in terms of positioning and fighting over screens. Doesn’t create a ton of separation when turning the corner on drives due to lack of elite burst. Ends up settling for contested mid-range pull-ups. Jumper needs some slight adjustments. Rarely uses his left hand to finish around the rim, which is important to develop for a player who lacks explosiveness inside.”
The concerns around Doncic are centered around two areas: defensive upside and athleticism. Both are worth noting and shouldn’t be dismissed, but neither should keep the sweet-shooting Slovenian from being the first pick.
Here’s who Doncic is — a transformative play-maker who can score with ease with the potential to be the best player on a championship team. Here’s who he isn’t — an explosive, freakishly athletic guard with the ability to jump out of the gym or compete in the dunk contest. And that’s perfectly fine.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Doncic is just 19 years old. He has room for improvement, and he should. He’s half the age of some NBA players and has the chance to improve in each season of a 20-year career. He’s not a finished product, and he may never be a stud defensively, but that shouldn’t be held against him.
Conclusion
Who will Luka Doncic be in the NBA? No one knows for sure, but I’m almost certain he’ll be a big success. If you haven’t heard about the Slovenian superstar until the last few weeks, you’re likely skeptical he belongs higher on draft boards than college standouts like DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Jaren Jackson, or even Trae Young.
I remember exactly where I was standing over a year ago when I first heard the hype around Doncic. Often, I’m cynical when it comes to European basketball prospects, but not this time. Depending on who you ask, Doncic could be the best European player ever, and it’s for reasons other than his similarities to a young LeBron.
After winning the EuroLeague title with Real Madrid and Final Four MVP earlier this week, Doncic is officially a champion. If he won the title this April with Villanova, he’d be the talk of the nation, but what he did overseas is even more impressive.
Doncic wasn’t a man among boys, he was a man among men. In what’s widely seen as the best basketball league outside of the NBA — including NCAA basketball — Doncic didn’t just hang with former NBA players, he led them. It’s one thing to push around Pac-12 or ACC competitors; it’s another to dominate against grown men and a league of professionals.
Not only did Doncic lead his team to victory to teams roughly equivalent to bottom-tier NBA teams, but he did so with a stat-line of 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and an effective field goal percentage of 53.4 percent. At age 19, he was the best player on the best team of one of the world’s best leagues.
The Phoenix Suns are on the clock after a dreadful 21–61 record. They desperately need a complement to shooting guard Devin Booker in the back-court, and Doncic is the clear answer. New Phoenix coach Igor Kokoškov has ties to Doncic and is the NBA’s first European-born head coach. Maybe it’s the start of a trend.
It’s unrealistic to expect Doncic to have a career like James, even if the two have a lot in common as pre-draft prospects. If you’re waiting for “the next LeBron,” don’t hold your breath. Instead, stop overthinking and take the Euro.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
