Not a Lock: Why Missouri’s senior passer is no sure thing in the NFL
Here’s my scouting report on Drew Lock — completely independent of NFL Draft analysts or mock drafts.
In preparation for the 2019 NFL Draft, I’m taking an independent look at consensus NFL quarterback prospects expected to declare. I’m blocking out as much outside noise as I can to be as unbiased as possible. This means I’m not reading any mock drafts or listening, reading, or watching any NFL Draft content unless specified below.
Instead, I’m looking at the potential NFL passer’s game logs to find games against quality competition that jump out, then watching their every throw from game film found on YouTube. I’m aware that watching four or five games of film isn’t enough to make a fully informed call on a player, but scouts who watch thousands of hours of film only get the quarterback position right about half the time, and since I’m a full-time student who’s not getting paid for this, I, unfortunately, can’t invest much more time into watching film.
I’m evaluating strictly based on statistics, game logs, and what I observe on film, not character, personality, or intangibles. I won’t comment on whether a player is overrated or underrated, because I’m completely unaware of where they’re projected to go. Instead, I’ll say where I’d draft him and why.
The following are my observations on Missouri senior quarterback Drew Lock.
Disclosure: In early December, I read an article on The Athletic titled “NFL Prospect Recap: SEC quarterback prospects not living up to high expectations.” I began my research on Lock several weeks later and originally forgot he was mentioned, along with everything the author said about him. Considering this, I believe my analysis can still be viewed as original, given that I did not incorporate the author’s view into my own.
Who is Drew Lock?
Height and weight: 6'4, 225
Career stats: 50 starts, 56.9 completion %, 244 yards per game, 7.9 yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio 2.53, 2.2 yards per rush
Junior and senior stats: 26 starts, 60.3 completion %, 287 yards per game, 8.7 yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio 3.42, 2.92 yards per rush
Junior to senior year stats: comp % +5.1, -35.85 yards per game, -1.5 yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio+0.11, +0.6 yards per rush
43–29 loss vs Georgia, 9/22/18
· Despite a few displays of precision, including a pair of nice back-shoulder throws, Lock wasn’t impressive. He was pressured consistently and was quick to move out of the pocket and throw on the run, where his accuracy went down considerably. He doesn’t drive the ball with his legs and leans away when throwing if defenders are nearby. When he did stay in the pocket, he had little presence and awareness of defenders. He missed several receivers low and completed less than half of his passes.
· At the end of the first half, Mizzou had the ball with around a minute to go in the half and a timeout about 30–40 yards from field goal range. After a sack/fumble recovered by the Tigers, Mizzou elected to let the half run down and go to the break down by 13. To me, this shows a lack of confidence in Lock from coaches. He fumbled twice (lost one), though an interception tipped off the hands of his receiver was not his fault. Georgia also scored on a fumble return and a kickoff return; technically, Missouri’s offense outscored Georgia’s.
· Missouri’s offense consisted of short throws and QB options, though Lock kept the ball on only a handful of plays. Lock did little to stretch the field and settled for check downs on all but a handful of throws.
Stat line: 23/48, 221 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 fumbles (1 lost). GRADE: 5th round
39–10 loss vs Alabama, 10/23/18
· Struggled in the first quarter with an interception on his first throw when the receiver was well-covered in single coverage. Threw with anticipation on one nice throw up the seam for 19 yards.
· Missed two receivers on short routes inexplicably, threw the ball at their feet. Threw a nice touchdown when given a perfectly clean pocket and six seconds to throw when Alabama rushed only 3. Completely breaks down under pressure, resulting in a sack/fumble, at the 10:30 mark of the second quarter. Doesn’t throw accurately on the run. Footwork is often sloppy, doesn’t drive the ball with his legs. Has very little pocket awareness and feel for pressure. Takes a safety sack on pressure up the middle.
· Missouri’s offense is incredibly predictable. With few exceptions, they operate out of 11 (one running back, one tight end) or 10 (one running back, no tight end) personnel and almost always run on first down, usually run on second down, and throw on third down, unless they’re within a yard or two of the first down.
Stat line: 13/26, 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. GRADE: 4th round
38–17 win vs Florida, 11/3/18
· This was one of Lock’s best games of the year against No. 13 Florida. He had his fourth-highest QBR of the year (94.8) in Missouri’s first conference win of the year and showed flashes of starting NFL quarterback talent.
· On a third down and 10 late in the first quarter, Florida shows Cover 3 and man coverage in a nickel package. Before the play, a safety creeps in from 10 yards out of the play to the left side of the line of scrimmage as the middle safety rotates to the right and the safety on the right takes the left half of the field. Lock doesn’t audible the play and the Tigers run a sweep to the left right into the trap of the blitzing safety, who blows up the play for a five-yard loss. Missouri was 11-for-18 on third downs on the day.
· On the play before, Florida jumped offside at the snap on a third and 15, and instead of taking a deep shot, Lock checked it down for a seven-yard gain. These aren’t necessarily mental errors, but something that separates Lock from other top young quarterbacks.
· On a third and seven early in the second quarter, Lock makes adjustments before the snap and finds his tight end wide open on a seam route. He finds the soft spot in what looked like a blown defense for an easy score. A few drives later, he makes a beautiful throw down the left sideline on a go-route for a huge gain in the face of pressure. As mentioned on the broadcast, Lock can throw at awkward arm angles with success, which can make up for his inconsistent footwork.
· Lock’s best play of the day comes on a second and 7 early in the third quarter. He sees his X receiver at the top of the screen in man coverage and a single high safety. A jet motion from right to left brings the safety down, which leaves no one to guard the deep middle of the field. Lock immediately sees this, steps up in the pocket, and throws a beautiful deep ball to hit his receiver in stride.
Stat line: 24/32, 250 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. GRADE: 1st round
38–33 loss vs Oklahoma State, 12/31/18 (Liberty Bowl)
· Missouri makes a clear effort to establish the run early (both in the game and the down) and utilized play-action to move the ball downfield. A deep shot down the left sideline set up a field goal while the first touchdown drive was a methodical 16-play, 97-yard drive with 81 yards on runs.
· On a third-and-12 midway through the third quarter, Missouri desperately needs to gain some momentum down 12. Oklahoma State shows Cover 3 with one safety 15 yards back in the middle of the field flanked by two safeties on either side about 10 yards back. Missouri has two receivers on each side of the formation with the two outside receivers matched up with corners in man. Lock is pressured up the middle by a blitzing linebacker and rolls to his right to buy time. He throws off his back foot over 30 yards while running right and nails a receiver crossing the middle for a big conversion. This is an NFL-caliber throw — one of the best throws I observed him make in all the games I watched.
· Lock shows off his arm strength in his first throw of the fourth quarter with an 86-yard bomb on a pass that went about 45 yards in the air. There’s no doubt he has an NFL arm. Later in the game, he shows nice touch and accuracy.
Stat line: 23/38, 373 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. GRADE: 1st round
Conclusion
Drew Lock is a quarterback with plenty of collegiate experience (50 starts) against tough SEC competition. When given a clean pocket and time to throw, he can make nearly every throw on the field. He’s shown he can throw with anticipation, touch, and accuracy when he has enough time to read the field. He can make plays with his feet, but doesn’t have high-end speed and is an average to slightly above-average athlete by NFL quarterback standards.
When blitzed, Lock is significantly less effective. He takes too many sacks and shows little pocket awareness at times. There are times he steps us nicely in the pocket and completes passes, but he needs to be more consistent in doing this. Lock’s career completion percentage is 56.9, which is concerning. Legendary NFL coach Bill Parcells is quoted as saying that 30 starts and a 60 percent completion rate are minimums for drafting NFL quarterbacks — something that’s generally accepted to this day. Lock had inconsistent accuracy in college, as he had several inexplicable misses on short throws against Georgia and Alabama.
Additionally, Lock has a losing record at Missouri at 21–25. Though it’s obvious football is a team sport, it should be equally as obvious that you can’t expect quarterbacks to lift NFL teams to victory over the world’s best players if you couldn’t carry a team in college. The numbers say Lock got more conservative his senior season: his yards per game and yards per attempt dipped in his final season as his completion percentage went up five points and his touchdown to interception ratio slightly improved.
Lock operated out of the shotgun in a spread college offense. In the past, this may have been a knock, but in recent years, several young quarterbacks from spread systems have succeeded (Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky) in the NFL. His footwork is unpolished and sloppy at times and he doesn’t drive the ball with his legs.
He often plays like a “flag football” quarterback, meaning he takes the snap and lightly bounces on his feet while waiting for someone to get open instead of doing a three or five-step drop like in timing-based NFL passing offenses. If I were to compare Lock to a current starter, I’d choose Derek Carr. Both have strong arms and like to extend plays and make things happen, and both struggled in college with consistent mechanics and accuracy.
Unlike the aforementioned spread quarterbacks, I don’t believe Lock will be ready to succeed in the NFL in his rookie season. If he’s to win at the next level, he’ll need time to improve his footwork, mechanics, and instincts. I don’t know where Lock is projected to go in the 2019 NFL Draft, but if it’s earlier than the late first-round, I’d advise teams to stay away.
I think Lock has qualities that make him an intriguing risk in the second or third round, and the key for teams is setting expectations for him. Like many talented college quarterbacks, Lock can win plenty of games in the right system with the right coach and surrounding talent. However, I’ve seen enough that makes me think he’s not — at least not right now — a special player that can carry a team. For teams that keep expectations realistic, Lock could develop into a reliable starter with a few years of work if he lands in the right place.
-James Faris
