Projecting the 2018 NBA Western Conference Playoffs
Here’s who will win each series, why the Thunder are poised to peak, and how the Warriors’ new dynasty will be tested like never before.
After a long and eventful NBA regular season, the playoffs have finally arrived along with dozens of intriguing story-lines. Unlike last season, there’s no seemingly predestined crash course between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors.
Instead, there are four clear front-runners and a slew of dark horses that could make deep playoff runs. The postseason is poised to be the most interesting in years, as the presumed Bay Area dynasty is in jeopardy sooner than expected.
The Western Conference has two clear favorites in the Warriors and Houston Rockets accompanied by overachievers like the Utah Jazz, San Antonio Spurs, and New Orleans Pelicans and talented teams that haven’t yet put it all together like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
While many have penciled in a Rockets-Warriors match-up in the Western Conference Finals, perennial postseason disappointment and injured stars may prove to be too much to overcome.
First Round
No. 1 Rockets over No. 8 Timberwolves in 5 games
The Timberwolves snapped a 14-year playoff drought on Wednesday night with a tight overtime win over the Nuggets, but this team has too much talent to need a victory on the last night of the season to squeak in the playoffs. Like the Bucks in the East, the T-Wolves aren’t as good as the sum of their parts, which doesn’t project well for the postseason. Three current and former All-Stars in Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jeff Teague as well as up-and-comer Andrew Wiggins should translate to higher than the No. 8 seed in the West.
The NBA’s scariest offense led by MVP-to be James Harden will tear apart Minnesota’s 23rd-rated defense. Houston is the best team in the NBA according to Team Rankings’ predictive ratings and will have little trouble advancing past the Timberwolves. The Rockets lead the season series with Minnesota 4–0 and will advance in four or five games in the playoffs.
No. 2 Warriors over No. 7 Spurs in 4 games
At first glance, the Warriors seem to be struggling, going 7–10 down the stretch to close the regular season. While not having star guard Steph Curry has hurt Golden State, the concerns around this team have been largely overblown. Like the Cavaliers in the East, I expect the Warriors to ramp up the intensity in the postseason and blow out the Spurs.
While head coach Gregg Popovich should be commended for guiding San Antonio to the postseason with a dearth of talent on the roster, this team simply won’t be able to compete athletically with Warriors. Without Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t played since January, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and former G-Leaguer Quinn Cook will have their way with the Spurs.
No. 3 Trailblazers over No. 6 Pelicans in 5 games
There’s no doubt New Orleans exceeded all of my expectations, as I predicted in the preseason that they’d finish worse than the Grizzlies. It’s embarrassing in hindsight how much I underestimated the Pelicans, who finished the regular season with the third-rated scoring offense thanks to the play of MVP candidate Anthony Davis. Still, New Orleans doesn’t have the depth needed to succeed in the playoffs, ranking 26th in the NBA in bench scoring.
Portland has emerged in the second half of the season as one of the best teams in the NBA with a 27–14 record in that stretch, better than the Warriors and Rockets. The Trailblazers will easily advance past the Pelicans behind the strong back-court of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
No. 4 Thunder over No. 5 Jazz in 6 games
These two teams entered the season with a completely different set of expectations, as the Jazz weren’t expected to be a playoff team without Gordon Hayward while the Thunder were thought to be one of the best teams in the West. Utah’s stunning season is largely due to Rookie of the Year candidate Donovan Mitchell’s emergence as a true star after he was passed on by 12 teams in last year’s NBA Draft. Mitchell is the first player since current Thunder forward Carmelo Anthony to lead a playoff team in scoring as a rookie.
Russell Westbrook made some history of his own on Thursday by becoming the first player in NBA history to average a triple-double in back-to-back seasons. More importantly, is primed to lead his team to the second round of the playoffs alongside former All-Star Paul George and center Steven Adams. Oklahoma City leads the season series with the Jazz 3–1 and is built to win in the postseason, so now is the Thunder’s time to truly shine.
Second Round
No. 1 Rockets over No. 4 Thunder in 5 games
While I expect the Thunder to knock off the Jazz, their run will end in the second round at the hands of Harden and the Rockets. After tearing the league up a season ago, Houston is built to shoot and make a ridiculous number of threes, especially against OKC’s average perimeter defense.
The Thunder won’t be able to hang with Harden and Chris Paul for long, as the Rockets simply have too much scoring and depth. While the Thunder will steal a game, Houston will prove to be too tough to guard with OKC’s best defender — Andre Roberson — done for the year.
No. 2 Warriors over No. 3 Trailblazers in 6 games
Golden State and Portland are constructed similarly, and if Curry isn’t playing at 100 percent this series has a strong chance to go seven games. The Spurs might not be able to hang with the Warriors, but the Blazers are built to, with center Jusuf Nurkic complementing Lillard and McCollum, who average over 48 points per game combined.
Portland is very well-coached and has a solid supporting cast of role-players that should pose a true challenge the Warriors. However, it’s tough to see a team as talented as Golden State bowing out before the Conference Finals, especially if Curry is able to come back and contribute.
Conference Finals
No. 1 Rockets over No. 2 Warriors in 7 games
In what will be the most entertaining series of the entire postseason, the Rockets and Warriors appear destined to meet in the Conference Finals. Houston leads the season series 2–1 and has home-court advantage, which could prove to be the biggest advantage in the series. The Rockets were 34–7 at home this season and were 18–4 against above-average teams at home according to Team Rankings.
This year’s version of the Warriors doesn’t feel as unstoppable as last season, as there finally appear to be chinks in the armor. Houston ranks higher than the defending champs in offense and defensive rating according to Basketball Reference, which has the Rockets as the best team in the NBA based on net-rating.
Analytics website FiveThirtyEight has Houston as an overwhelming favorite to win the West and the title, and while I think it will be close, I can’t help but agree. When it’s all said and done, it’ll be the Harden, Paul, and the Rockets who put their postseason demons away for good and begin a dynasty of their own.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
