Week 1 NFL Picks

After a long off-season, football season is finally back — and with it are my weekly NFL picks. See which teams are locks to win Week 1 and which will disappoint, as well as my best bets.

James Faris
Sep 5, 2018 · 4 min read

If you’re new to this column, here’s how this works: Every Wednesday, I’ll pick the winners against the spread of five NFL games. A “lock” means that a favorite of 4.5 points must win by five or more. An “upset” means that a team favored to lose at least 4.5 points wins outright. “Best bets” are games you can be confident about even though the favorite is favored by 4.5 or less. Home teams are in all caps.

Last year: 27–19–2

Lock of the Week

SAINTS (-9.5) over Buccaneers

The Saints are back and ready to compete for a playoff spot, while it looks like the only thing Tampa Bay will be competing for is the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Many have pegged the Buccaneers as one of the worst teams in football, and for good reason.

Drew Brees and the Saints are ready for another strong season, starting with a Week 1 win over rival Tampa Bay. Picture: Leon Bennett/Getty Images

The team looked like a disaster last season under head coach Dirk Koetter, and now starting quarterback Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games of the season. While Tampa is a mess, New Orleans deserves to be in the conversation for preseason NFC favorites with a strong defense and a potent offense led by veteran quarterback Drew Brees. Expect the Saints — an excellent home team — to cruise Sunday.

Upset of the Week

Jets (+6.5) over LIONS

Part of the reasoning behind this pick stems from my love for rookie Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and part is from my disdain and distrust of new Lions coach Matt Patricia. It’s always tough to gauge which teams will over-perform and underwhelm their preseason expectations, and the cream will rise to the top in a few weeks.

I believe the Jets are going to be one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season thanks to Darnold, a coach in Todd Bowles who gets the most from his players, and the fact that New York was a 5–11 team that suffered three losses by less than six points. Meanwhile, I think Detroit will regress in a competitive division, starting with a Week 1 loss that will be surprising to many.

Best Bets

Titans (-1.5) over DOLPHINS

Of all the lines in Week 1, this is one of the more confusing. Tennessee — a playoff team last season — is just a two-point favorite over a consensus bottom-four NFL team with a historically weak home-field advantage. While I don’t think the Titans will make the postseason again this year, I think they’ll kick off the season with a win in Miami.

Roster-wise, it’s clear Tennessee is much more talented than Miami on both sides of the ball after outpacing the Dolphins in scoring offense and scoring defense. Expect the Titans to take care of business and open the season with a narrow road win.

Rams (-2.5) over RAIDERS

Again, this looks to be a “crooked line,” as the Rams — a preseason Super Bowl favorite — are less than three-point favorites against an Oakland team that looks like it could be in for a long season under new head coach Jon Gruden. The Raiders are at home, but just traded away their best player — and one of the best defensive players in the league — in linebacker Khalil Mack, and Oakland players were very surprised, to say the least.

Making a franchise-altering move with just over a week to go before the start of the season has to be tough for Raider fans to swallow, and it’s worth questioning how committed Gruden will be to winning in his first year after receiving a 10-year, $100 million deal. I have doubts about how Los Angeles’s offseason acquisitions will fit together, but the Rams should cruise to victory in Oakland to kick off the season.

“Contrary to every analyst I’ve heard this off-season, I believe L.A’s big-name free agents could end up hurting the team, not helping — especially if the team faces adversity early on in the face of enormous expectations.” -James Faris, August 13

Falcons (+3.5) over EAGLES

In a rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional round, the Falcons will travel to Philadelphia to take on last year’s Super Bowl champions. Atlanta will enter as a four-point underdog and beat the Eagles outright in the midst of their first ring ceremony celebration.

I see the Eagles pulling back slightly after an incredible run by backup quarterback Nick Foles, starting with an opening night loss to a hungry Atlanta team. The Falcons will be strong once again on defense under head coach Dan Quinn and added rookie receiver Calvin Ridley from Alabama to complement superstar wide-out Julio Jones, making the Falcons scary on both sides of the ball. Expect Atlanta to come out with speed and energy in the 2018 NFL season opener and avenge last year’s season-ending loss.

-James Faris

Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)

James Faris

Journalism matters because stories change lives. Join me as I strive to tell stories that matter.

James Faris

Written by

Twitter @JFarisSports

James Faris

Journalism matters because stories change lives. Join me as I strive to tell stories that matter.

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