Week 11 NFL Picks
After a short break from my NFL picks column, here’s who I’m picking in Week 11.
I’m back to my weekly NFL picks after a three-week hiatus. Let’s do this. Home teams are in all-caps.
Last week: 7–7 overall, 22–20 in last three weeks
Packers (+2.5) over SEAHAWKS
According to my — and many Vegas experts’ — favorite stat, Net Yards per Play, Green Bay is the sixth-best team in the league at 0.5 while Seattle is 19th at -0.2. Since Russell Wilson became Seattle’s quarterback in 2012, the Seahawks have won 60 percent of home games against the spread, but Aaron Rodgers is usually lights-out in November.
In what should be a close game between two teams desperate to stay in the playoff hunt, I lean Packers to go into Seattle and get a win. Green Bay has a manageable schedule coming up — their last six opponents have a combined record of 23–31–1.
FALCONS (-3.5) over Cowboys
Last week, I learned I can’t trust Atlanta on the road in the cold, but I do like the Falcons returning home off an embarrassing loss to Cleveland. Dallas is coming off an emotional, primetime rivalry win over Philadelphia and will likely pull back in their second-straight road game. Bet on Atlanta to take care of business against the Cowboys.
RAVENS (-3.5) over Bengals
I love the Ravens this week — Baltimore is desperate, at home, and most importantly, coming off a bye. Coach John Harbaugh is 8–2 straight-up coming off a bye and the Ravens must beat Cincinnati in a pseudo-playoff game. Baltimore has uncertainty at quarterback with Joe Flacco’s hip injury making him a game-time decision, but rookie backup Lamar Jackson could give the Ravens a spark if Flacco can’t go.
Panthers (-3.5) over LIONS
Carolina got humiliated by Pittsburgh and will have three extra days to recover against a Detroit team that may be close to giving up. The Lions have lost three in a row by double-digits, and even seven straight wins might not be enough to secure a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be motivated to rebound and position themselves for a first-round bye or at least a Wild Card spot in the competitive NFC.
COLTS (-2.5) over Titans
Winners of three in a row, the Colts are on fire, and I expect them to keep rolling this week against AFC South rival Tennessee. In the past three weeks, quarterback Andrew Luck has Indy’s offense clicking — the Colts have the NFL’s fourth-best offense in terms of yards per play and have allowed no sacks in that span.
Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off a big win over New England and will likely pull back. Additionally, Tennessee has a Net YPP of -0.3 despite a winning record while the Colts clock in at -0.1 and are trending upward.
GIANTS (-0.5) over Buccanneers
Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven and may have lost the locker room after last week’s 16–3 loss to the Redskins. The Buccaneers have little left to fight for with head coach Dirk Koetter already halfway out the door, while the Giants are fighting for respectability in what will likely be quarterback Eli Manning’s final season.
The numbers indicate New York is better than its 2–7 record — PWE says the Giants have an expected winning percentage of 35.4 while the team has a Net YPP slightly below average at -0.2. New York should probably be 3–6 or 4–5 at this point in the year and will pick up a victory this week against the Bucs.
Steelers (-5.5) over JAGUARS
Jacksonville has lost five in a row after a 3–1 start, and that trend isn’t changing this week. By contrast, the Steelers have won five in a row and are starting to look like a true Super Bowl contender.
Pittsburgh has three extra days to prepare after a 52–21 blowout win over Carolina and won’t be flat after a huge win after Jacksonville ended its season in the AFC Divisional Round last year. Swallow the points and take the red-hot Steelers.
Texans (-2.5) over REDSKINS
It’s hard to believe that after 10 games, one of these teams will be 7–3. Houston is on fire in the midst of a six-game winning streak while Washington has won four of its past five. A look at Net YPP reveals the Texans are indeed an above-average team at 0.4, while the Redskins’ mark of -0.5 suggests they’re one of the most overrated teams in the league. Take the Texans in this one.
CHARGERS (-7.5) over Broncos
Los Angeles is arguably the most underrated team in the league with an NFL-best 1.3 Net YPP while Denver is slightly above-average at 0.2. However, the Broncos are a terrible road team in the last season-and-a-half under Vance Joseph — Denver is 3–9 against the spread on the road, which accounts for the fact that the Broncos have been big underdogs several times since 2017.
The Chargers — winners of six straight — are motivated and have only lost to the Chiefs and Rams this year. Expect Los Angeles to win comfortably.
CARDINALS (-3.5) over Raiders
I’m betting more against the Raiders than on the Cardinals here, although Arizona did have an encouraging performance last week moving the ball in Kansas City. Oakland appears to have given up after scoring just six points out of its bye week. In the least entertaining game of the week, I lean Cardinals in this spot.
SAINTS (-8.5) over Eagles
New Orleans is 7–2 at home against the spread this year, and I’ve learned my lesson the hard way — I’m not betting against the Saints until I have reason to otherwise.
Think about the line this way: home-field advantage in the NFL is worth three points. Take that away and the Saints would be a 5.5-point favorite on a neutral site; add that again if Philadelphia was at home and New Orleans would be favored by less than a field goal. Who would you take then? I rest my case.
Vikings (+2.5) over BEARS
Chicago has been the surprise of the NFC, as I predicted in the preseason, but I’m going to fade the Bears this week. Minnesota has flown under the radar and has won four of five, and the loss was to the Saints in a game where the Vikings outgained New Orleans and suffered from turnovers.
As the season goes on, I like the experience of Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings are a strong play here to pick up a Sunday Night win and firmly plant themselves in the playoff conversation.
Chiefs (+2.5) over Rams
In the game of the week — and possibly the game of the season — the Rams and Chiefs will battle in Mexico City in what could be a preview of Super Bowl LIII. These teams are dead-even in Net YPP at 0.9 — good for third in the NFL. In a game of high-flying offenses and struggling defenses, I’m going with my gut and taking the Chiefs to win a nail-biter.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
