Week 2 NFL Picks
After a crazy, surprise-filled Week 1, here’s what we’ve learned and what to expect for this week.
Every Wednesday, I pick the winners against the spread of five NFL games. A “lock” means that a favorite of 4.5 points must win by five or more. An “upset” means that a team favored to lose at least 4.5 points wins outright. “Best bets” are games you can be confident about even though the favorite is favored by 4.5 or less. Home teams are in all caps.
Last week: 2–3 (Jets, Rams; Saints, Titans, Falcons), 9–7 overall
Lock of the Week
STEELERS (-5.5) over Chiefs
NFL fans have been itching for football for months, and now that it’s here, it’s far too easy to overreact to the first week of action. Pittsburgh began the season in bizarre fashion; star running back Le’Veon Bell is still holding out and the Steelers tied the Browns after coming into Cleveland as seven-point favorites.
Still, Pittsburgh should still be a favorite to win the AFC and will be just fine. The Steelers struggle against lesser teams and tend to start the season slow: Pittsburgh has a record of 12–12 since 2012 in its first four games, so an off game against the Browns should be no cause for concern. When the thrilling but inexperienced Patrick Mahomes leads Kansas City into the Steel City coming off a big upset win, expect the Steelers to come away with a decisive victory.
(Almost) Upset of the Week
BILLS (+7.5) cover vs Chargers
To clarify, I don’t think Buffalo will win over Los Angeles, but I’m confident they’ll be within a touchdown at home against an overrated Chargers team. Last week was as ugly as it gets for the Bills in the season opener, but they’ll be better this week for several reasons.
Firstly, second-year quarterback Nathan Peterman is back on the sidelines after a dreadful 5-for-18, 24 yard, two interception performance against Baltimore in Week 1. In his young career, Peterman hasn’t finished any of his three starts — he’s been benched mid-game twice and injured once — and has a completion percentage of 43 percent and two touchdowns to seven picks.
Rookie signal caller Josh Allen should give the Bills a much-needed spark on offense. Buffalo should play for pride after an embarrassing loss under coach Sean McDermott in its home opener. The Chargers have plenty of talent on paper but haven’t put it together yet, which should be cause for some concern. While Los Angeles will likely notch its first win of the season, it will be by less than most expect
Best Bets
JETS (-2.5) over Dolphins
New York surprised many on Monday night in a decisive 48–17 victory over the overmatched Lions and will move to 2–0 this week against division-rival Miami. Home-field advantage in the NFL is typically worth three points, meaning Vegas sees the Dolphins as roughly equal to the Jets. I completely disagree.
Even after a nice win over Tennessee, I’m still not fully buying into Miami. The Dolphins were just 2-for-10 on third down and may have lost if not for a 102-yard kickoff return. Expect the Jets to surge to second place in the AFC East standings in front of a rowdy home crowd.
Vikings (+0.5) over PACKERS
An even spread given the difference in talent between these two rosters is a testament to the value of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s home-field advantage. Minnesota is clearly the better team with a defensive unit that led the league last year in total and scoring defense and a potent offense with playmakers everywhere.
Green Bay will be in the game thanks to Rodgers, who led the Pack back after trailing by 20 last week, but the Vikings will pose an even tough challenge. Considering the fact that Green Bay’s superstar quarterback isn’t fully healthy, Minnesota is a safe bet to take care of business and has won four of its last five against the Packers.
Eagles (-3.5) over BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay’s win in New Orleans was shocking and impressive, but not repeatable. This week’s matchup with the defending Super Bowl champions will show the world who the Buccaneers really are, and unless everyone’s completely wrong, Tampa will come back down to earth.
Last week was the perfect storm for the Buccaneers: quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played the game of his life last week in a 417-yard, four touchdown performance and Tampa Bay won the turnover battle 2–0, yet the Buccaneers still nearly lost after allowing 40 points. Expect a well-coached Philadelphia team with three extra days to prepare to easily handle Tampa.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
