Week 3 NFL Picks
Through two weeks of football, here’s which NFL teams are trustworthy and which may disappoint.
Every Wednesday, I pick the winners against the spread of five NFL games. A “lock” means that a favorite of 4.5 points must win by five or more. An “upset” means that a team favored to lose at least 4.5 points wins outright. “Best bets” are games you can be confident about even though the favorite is favored by 4.5 or less. Home teams are in all caps.
Last week: 1–4 (Vikings; Steelers), 8–8 overall
Lock of the Week
VIKINGS (-16.5) over Bills
Don’t overthink this one. Minnesota — a contender in the NFC with a top-tier defense, a franchise quarterback with multiple dynamic playmakers, and a great head coach — is hosting what’s likely the worst team in the league. Buffalo looks like an absolute mess so far, ranking last in the league in yards per play at a pitiful 3.7, which is a substantial drop from last year’s mark of 4.7 which ranked 30th.
The Bills’ offense is far worse than last year’s terrible unit, in large part to struggles from second-year quarterback Nathan Peterman and rookie signal caller Josh Allen. Buffalo will certainly struggle to score against the league’s leader in total and scoring defense last season. Expect the Vikings to dominate the hapless Bills in all three phases and roll to a decisive win.
(Almost) Upset of the Week
Colts (+6.5) cover vs EAGLES
Eagles quarterback and 2017 MVP candidate Carson Wentz makes his long-awaited return this week against Indianapolis. More than likely, the Philadelphia coaching staff will take a conservative approach to keep Wentz upright after a brutal ACL tear near the end of last season.
That’s good news for the Colts, who are coming off a big win in Washington and will carry that momentum into Philly and keep things close. Indy is on the road for the second-straight week but will benefit from facing Wentz this early in the season. If the Eagles’ quarterback has any rust or limited mobility, expect Andrew Luck and the Colts to keep things close on the road.
Best Bets
Patriots (-6.5) over LIONS
Since 2001, the Patriots under Bill Belichick are 41–11 coming off a loss. That remarkable record under such a large winning percentage should inspire confidence that New England will win after a 31–20 loss to Jacksonville; the only question is if the Pats will cover a large seven-point spread.
Detroit played much better last week against San Francisco after an embarrassing 31-point loss to the Jets in Week 1. Still, the Lions have many problems on both sides of the ball and first-year head coach Matt Patricia will be outmatched against his former team. Expect New England to cruise to victory Sunday night.
Bengals (+2.5) over PANTHERS
The Bengals are a great value pick in this matchup, as Cincinnati appears to be the better team statistically, is getting nearly three points to a team with a weak-home field advantage, and has extra rest. Cincinnati outranks Carolina in yards per play (12th to 14th), opponent yards per play (7th to 22nd), and has three more days to prepare after a Thursday night victory.
Cam Newton and company have the NFL’s 25th-best home-field advantage according to ESPN in 2017. Meanwhile, the Bengals have outscored opponents by 0.95 points per drive, the third-best mark in the league so far. In a game that should be competitive and close, I’ll take the points with Cincinnati.
CHIEFS (-6.5) over 49ers
Kansas City is the hottest team in the league through two weeks, thanks in large part to 10 touchdown passes from second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is on pace to throw for 80 touchdowns; the NFL single-season record is 55.
While the Chiefs can’t possibly keep up such a ridiculous rate on offense for the full season, expect the fun to continue for at least another week in Kansas City’s home opener. It’s tough to imagine Mahomes and company dropping this one in what will certainly be a raucous crowd in one of the league’s loudest stadiums. Trust the Chiefs to take care of business at home against a good, but overvalued San Francisco team.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
