Week 4 NFL Picks
Last week, the Browns and Bills won on the same day for the first time since October 2015. After another crazy week of action, here are my strongest plays for Week 4.
Every Wednesday, I pick the winners against the spread of five NFL games. A “lock” means that a favorite of 4.5 points must win by five or more. An “upset” means that a team favored to lose at least 4.5 points wins outright. “Best bets” are games you can be confident about even though the favorite is favored by 4.5 or less. Home teams are in all caps.
Last week: 2–3 (Colts, Chiefs; Vikings, Patriots, Bengals), 9–7 overall
Lock of the Week
CHARGERS (-10.5) over 49ers
According to RJ Bell, the odds provider to the Associated Press, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the 10 most-valuable players in football. Without their rising star, San Francisco is a huge underdog quarterback, and deservedly so.
Giving over 10 points to any NFL team facing the Chargers is enough to make one uneasy, but think about it this way: How many points can the 'Niners conceivably score without Garoppolo? Last season, San Francisco average 14.8 points per game in backup quarterback CJ Beathard’s five starts. L.A is averaging of 28 points per game this year and could top 30 facing a below-average defense. The numbers don’t lie: the Chargers are a strong bet to cover.
(Almost) Upset of the Week
Bills (+10.5) cover vs PACKERS
Did everyone miss last week’s game? I’m not referring to Buffalo’s big win over Minnesota, but Green Bay’s disheartening loss to Washington. The Packers looked out of sync in D.C and beat themselves with critical drops and 115 penalty yards. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers clearly isn’t healthy and limped his way through the game, which makes it hard to believe Green Bay is an 11-point favorite over anyone.
As we saw this week, the Bills are best when no one believes in them — and when they’re not playing quarterback Nathan Peterman. After being mocked all of last week when a Buffalo player literally retired at halftime, the Bills came out with a strong “Nobody Believes In Us” performance. As a double-digit underdog again, it’s clear Buffalo hasn’t gotten much respect, and I expect the Bills to come out strong once again.
Best Bets
PATRIOTS (-6.5) over vs Dolphins
The Patriots have dropped their past two games, and that’s exactly why I’m so confident in this pick. According to Bell, New England hasn’t lost three games in a row in 16 years (!) and have lost back-to-back games just nine times in that span (!!!). But here’s the killer stat: New England’s covered seven of eight of games after losing two in a row since 2002 — which doesn’t even seem possible.
I’ll admit the Patriots looked awful Sunday night and that New England may have one of the 10-worst rosters in the league. Maybe everything we know is wrong. Maybe this truly is the end of the road for Brady and Belichick. Maybe I should stop picking NFL games forever if I have another losing week. I’m going all in on the Patriots, for better or worse.
Vikings (+6.5) cover vs RAMS
It takes guts to bet on a team that just suffered the biggest upset loss since 1995. Yes, Minnesota 21 point home loss to Buffalo as a 17-point favorite is absolutely embarrassing and inexcusable. However, I’m not throwing out the past three years of relatively strong play for the Vikings after one disappointing performance.
I’m banking on the fact the Vikings will come out angry and focused after being the laughing stock of the league on Sunday. The Rams are an excellent football team and have a realistic chance of making it through the regular season with two or fewer losses, and I don’t think this will be one of them. Still, nearly seven points for a preseason NFC favorite that should have extra motivation is too much to pass up. I’m going against the public’s overreaction and putting my faith in Minnesota for one more week.
COLTS (-0.5) over Texans
Part of me fears this game could be a “crooked line,” a term for when the betting line makes little sense — usually meaning Vegas knows something we don’t. Home field advantage in the NFL is worth three points, meaning an even spread in a game means the road team would be favored by six if home-field was flipped. (In other words, the Texans would be favored by 2.5 on a neutral site and by 5.5 at home.)
If you haven’t noticed, my column’s theme this week is insightful embedded tweets of betting professionals who did much more research than I have time for. This one from sports radio host Sean Pendergast illustrates just how bad Houston’s red-zone offense has been this season.
This line seems like a slight to Indy, a home team coming off a loss in which it was one play away from beating the Eagles. Expect the Colts to win and send the Texans into full desperation mode.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
