Week 7 NFL Picks
Here’s who I’m picking this week after my first overall losing week of the season.
Here’s what we learned this week: there are no elite defenses and anyone can beat anyone any given Sunday. With a bit of luck, I easily could’ve gone 9–6 for the second-straight week instead of 6–9. Still, I’m willing to admit I was wrong — especially on the Jacksonville/Dallas game (?!?). Through six weeks, I’m only willing to definitively label nine teams:
Great
Los Angeles Rams: It’s pretty clear the NFL’s only undefeated team is a Super Bowl favorite — if the defense can get healthy and do its part.
Good
New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens: Besides the Rams, these are the only teams in the NFL I’d be confident enough to bet money they’ll make the playoffs.
Bad
Oakland Raiders, Buffalo Bills, Arizona Cardinals: These the three teams are the only ones I’m excited to bet against nearly every week. All these teams have a Net Yards per Play of -1 or worse.
Somewhere in the middle
Everybody else.
Note that I kept San Francisco, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland, and the New York Giants out of the “bad” category and nine teams with a winning record out of the “good” category.
Last week: 6–9 overall (Lost three games by 0.5: Bills covered 7.5 — by 7, Cardinals covered 10.5 — lost by 10, Chiefs covered 3.5 — lost by 3).
CARDINALS (+2.5) over Broncos
Denver is 1–9 against the spread on the road under second-year head coach Vance Joseph. It’s no surprise that mark is easily the worst in the NFL since 2017. By contrast, Arizona is 6–4–1 at home against the spread in the same span. Home teams are 5–1 straight up this season on Thursday nights.
Because home-field advantage in the NFL is worth three points, this line implies Denver as a 2.5-point road favorite would be favored by 8.5 at home. I don’t buy it — take the Cardinals.
Chargers (-6.5) over Titans (in London)
After a convincing overtime win against the defending Super Bowl champions, I bought into Tennessee at the wrong time. The numbers say the Titans are one of the worst teams in football with a Net Yards per Play of 0.6 — the fourth-lowest in the league.
L.A.’s disadvantage of traveling across the world to London as a West Coast team is minimized by the fact that they’re staying in Cleveland this week. In a neutral-site game between two teams in unfamiliar territory, I’m betting on the Chargers — a historically good road team — to win by seven or more.
COLTS (-6.5) over Bills
The Colts might not be a good team — Indianapolis is tied for 26th in Net YPP — but they’re not a horrible one, unlike Buffalo. The Bills are last in the league in Net YPP by a considerable margin at -1.2 and have a historically bad offense that will be missing its starting quarterback. According to a report by CBS Sports, Buffalo is ‘losing the locker room’. I’m staying as far away from the Bills — losing by an average of 13 points on the road— as I can.
BEARS (+3.5) over Patriots
I think personnel and match-up wise, this is a very tough game for the Patriots. After getting gashed on Sunday night by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, New England will now travel to cold and windy Chicago to face an offense with an explosive playmaker in running back Tarik Cohen. I see the shifty and speedy Cohen posing a huge problem for Patriot linebackers in space. I like the Bears in this spot to cover and potentially upset the Pats.
BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Browns
I’m completely trusting the numbers in this one, even though my first instinct was to take Cleveland. As I’ve learned the hard way, my first instinct is often wrong. Net Yards per Play — one of the most reliable stats in football — says Tampa Bay is slightly above-average due to its mark of 0.2, while Cleveland is fifth-worst in the NFL at -0.6.
Believe it or not, the Buccaneers are tied with the Rams for the best offense in football on a per-play basis, and no, it wasn’t all Fitzmagic. In the last three games, Tampa Bay is tied for third in the league in YPP. I’m trusting the numbers and leaning Tampa in this one.
DOLPHINS (+0.5) over Lions
According to Net YPP, Miami is a league-average team at 0.0 while Detroit is at -0.3. However, Vegas has the spread even — meaning if home field was flipped, the Lions would be favored by 6.5. I don’t buy it — especially not when the hot and humid Miami weather will be a factor. Detroit is coming off a bye, but how much will a bye week mean to a rookie head coach that looks to be below-average? I like the Dolphins in this spot at home.
JETS (+3.5) over Vikings
Vegas is saying Minnesota is over nine points better than the Jets on a neutral site, and I don’t buy it. New York will be well-rested in its third straight game at home in Minnesota has been inconsistent all season. While they may not win, I think the Jets would least cover at home — New York is 17–10 at home against the spread since 2015.
Panthers (+4.5) over EAGLES
Vegas says the Eagles are 1.5 points better than the Panthers (home field advantage is 3), and Net YPP would indicate Carolina is the better team by about a half-point. I’ve learned the hard way there’s a huge difference between 2.5 and 4.5 — it’s the difference between covering on a 24–20 or 21–17 game and not. In a game between two seemingly even teams, I’ll grab the points with the Panthers.
JAGUARS (-4.5) over Texans
Jacksonville is coming off not one, but two ugly games, but I’ve yet to sell all my stock in this team. The numbers say the Jaguars are very good — they’re third in the league in Net YPP at 0.8. Their opponents Sunday, the Houston Texans, are also slightly above-average in Net YPP in 0.4, but I like the Jags in this one.
Jacksonville is the classic “frontrunner” team — they’re great playing with a lead and terrible when they fall behind big. The Jaguars are 3–0 when scoring first and 0–3 when allowing the first score, and the Texans have scored first just twice this season. I like Jacksonville to win and cover.
RAVENS (-2.5) over Saints
The league’s top defense hosts the NFL’s fifth-best offense this week in a contrast of styles, and I like the Ravens to win by a field goal or more. Baltimore is tied for third in Net YPP while New Orleans is tied for seventh, yet the Ravens are less than a three-point favorite — indicating the Saints are better on a neutral field. I lean Baltimore, a solid home team, in this one.
Cowboys (+2.5) over REDSKINS
Here are Washington’s results by week: win, loss, win, bye, loss, win. The inconsistent Redskins are difficult to peg this year, so a look at Net YPP could clear things up. Dallas is slightly above-average at 0.2 while Washington is below average at -0.3. The Redskins were fortunate to beat Carolina last week after going +3 in turnover differential and have been struggling to sell out games, meaning Dallas fans could make up half the fans in attendance. I lean Dallas in this one.
49ERS (+10.5) cover vs Rams
A scrappy, well-coached team coming off an impressive showing against Green Bay is getting over 10 points at home? I love the ’Niners in this one. The Rams are the best team in football right now but are only 3–3 against the spread.
San Francisco is gaining 5.9 YPP and allowing just 5.7 — a Net YPP of 0.2. The Rams are tops in the league by a considerable amount at 1.2, but there’s no good reason why the L.A. should be double-digit favorites in this one. This game opened with the Rams as an 11-point favorite and has been bet down to -9.5, meaning there’s been lots of action on San Fran. Take the 49ers to cover.
CHIEFS (-5.5) over Bengals
After a very impressive showing on the road against New England, I love the Chiefs in this spot to win by a touchdown or more. Kansas City is the only team that’s undefeated against the spread this season according to Team Rankings. Cincinnati tends to shrink in these spots historically: head coach Marvin Lewis is 9–31 straight-up in the last 15 seasons in prime-time while quarterback Andy Dalton is 6–19 in his career in stand-alone games. I love the Chiefs and their high-powered offense to take down a beat-up Bengals team.
Giants (+6.5) cover vs FALCONS
In this week’s Monday Night matchup, I like the Giants to cover after an embarrassing prime-time loss and three extra days to prepare. Believe it or not, New York has gained as many yards per play as it’s allowed, while the Falcons are below-average in Net YPP. Six points is too many for a banged-up Atlanta defense to surrender, even at home. Expect the Falcons to make the Giants look respectable; take the points with the G-Men.
-James Faris
Check out my website on Medium and my Twitter (@JFarisSports.)
