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March 18th 2021 — Looking For Value

Nice little 2–2 day yesterday, not winning, but not losing, so one of the better days this week. Season record is now 148–130, and I’m hunting for more winners with a different strategy going forward.

This entire year I have been looking at just the spread, with only a handful of picks on the Money Line. Yesterday, I took a little parlay that had the Bucks and Spurs ML both to win and it paid out a pretty nice return. Naturally, I saw an opportunity here to hunt for ML value. Now, we need to set some rules, anything higher than -200 odds will not be a pick, so no matter how much you think Utah is a lock to win tonight, they are -770 so it isn’t even worth a pick. Hopefully we can put together a few parlays with ML winners, as my model picks the outright winner 62 percent of the time.

I am also going to include a new section going forward called “lines to watch” which is lines, that I think are good value and could payout, but I am not confident enough in to make a real pick going against the record. I will be giving reasoning for these picks, but they are more of a long shot pick.

Value Hunting begins.

Now onto the picks.

POR -1

Dame Time lead an incredible comeback against the Pelicans the last game they played. He dropped 50 points and 10 assists. One of the more unbelievable 4th quarter comebacks I have seen in recent memory. CJ also had a rough first game back, shooting 3–11 from the field and only playing 26 minutes. I expect the minutes and the shooting percentage to rise here tonight, and when Dame and CJ are clicking in the Portland backcourt they are a tough team to beat. The Blazers are also getting the sharp money, with only 34 percent of the tickets, but 70 percent of the money.

My model has Portland -4.4 covering the -1 spread 75 percent of the time.

NYK -5.5 & ML -185

The Magic don’t really stand a chance here. They struggle to score consistently enough to scare most teams, but when the team you are facing is a top 5 defensive team in the league, their offense will struggle. The Knicks are also gonna come out pissed here since they lost the last game on a very questionable travel call. Look for the Knicks to come out swinging this game.

My model has New York -7 covering the -5.5 spread 63 percent of the time, as well as winning outright 68 percent of the time.

Lines to look at:

CHA +265

Even though Charlotte is on the second half of a back to back, this has the feeling of a little bit of a trap game for the Lakers. None of the Hornets starters played over 25 minutes last night, so they should be more rested than normal. The value at +265 here is a nice little chance to take. Personally I am only putting 0.5 units on this bet.

Good luck and happy betting

Also follow me on medium or on social media @j_odowda and follow my reddit friend on twitter @jelanihb.




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James O'Dowda

An avid sports gambler that wants to share his knowledge and expertise to as many people as possible